Serene-Checkout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$175

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

80.1%

Resolved

1,100

Trades

1,865

lifetime

Volume

$8.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$140

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-31 05:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 265 days

Categories

Other

91% 71% -$113

Sports

5% 40% -$75

Politics

3% 27% +$32

Crypto

1% 0% -$17

Tech

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+80	$52	56¢	$44	-$8	09-28 07:20
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+30	$20	70¢	$21	+$2	10-08 17:57
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$14	72¢	$14	+$0	10-28 19:57
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+20	$11	72¢	$14	+$3	10-13 21:12
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+100	$8	12¢	$12	+$4	10-07 04:51
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+270	$13	4¢	$11	-$2	10-05 10:47
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	+35	$12	28¢	$10	-$2	10-07 18:15
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+10	$7	70¢	$7	+$0	10-23 09:09
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	+8	$5	56¢	$4	$0	07-23 22:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+40	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	09-15 18:24
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+20	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	07-22 06:05
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+40	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	09-15 23:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	16	$70	117	0	+117	Yes	+$47	09-16 13:19
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$61	200	200	+0	Yes	-$1	06-12 15:15
highest temperature in nyc on february 26 2026 34 35f	7	$57	116	0	+116	No	+$1	02-25 11:59
highest temperature in london on february 26 2026 11c	7	$52	106	0	+106	No	+$1	02-25 07:27
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$52	80	0	+80	open	—	09-28 07:20
highest temperature in dallas on march 14 2026 86 87f	9	$48	98	0	+98	No	+$1	03-14 00:37
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 22 2026 27corbelow	4	$45	105	17	+88	No	+$0	02-22 06:05
highest temperature in miami on february 26 2026 74 75f	2	$43	86	0	+86	No	+$0	02-25 05:00
highest temperature in seoul on march 7 2026 2c	4	$43	86	0	+86	No	+$0	03-06 10:25
highest temperature in seoul on february 23 2026 1c	2	$42	86	0	+86	No	+$1	02-22 15:55
highest temperature in buenos aires on march 19 2026 25c	3	$42	86	0	+86	No	+$1	03-18 15:31
highest temperature in london on march 16 2026 8c	8	$40	82	0	+82	No	+$1	03-14 19:15
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka	4	$37	22	22	+0	Aryna Sabalenka	+$6	04-27 13:27
highest temperature in chicago on march 6 2026 62 63f	3	$36	72	0	+72	No	+$0	03-05 15:35
highest temperature in dallas on march 8 2026 64 65f	4	$36	72	0	+72	No	+$0	03-07 11:40
highest temperature in seoul on march 7 2026 7c	4	$35	70	0	+70	No	+$0	03-06 11:28
highest temperature in seoul on march 12 2026 7c	7	$34	70	0	+70	No	+$1	03-11 08:14
highest temperature in seoul on march 3 2026 7c	3	$30	70	0	+70	No	$0	03-03 00:09
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24?	5	$28	17	17	+0	No	-$1	06-23 17:09
nba okc hou 2026 01 15	9	$24	36	31	+5	Thunder	-$2	01-15 17:18
highest temperature in dallas on february 24 2026 69forbelow	3	$24	48	0	+48	No	+$0	02-24 09:40
highest temperature in ankara on march 4 2026 7c	5	$23	47	0	+47	No	+$0	03-03 21:12
dota2 xctn playti 2026 01 28	9	$23	34	14	+20	PlayTime	+$7	01-28 04:24
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 7?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-07 15:58
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on May 7?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-07 15:58
highest temperature in chicago on february 18 2026 58 59f	5	$22	22	10	+13	No	$0	02-18 04:14
highest temperature in seattle on march 4 2026 48 49f	2	$22	44	0	+44	No	+$0	03-03 19:52
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 16?	2	$22	24	0	+24	No	+$2	05-15 06:10
highest temperature in london on february 16 2026 8c	6	$21	43	0	+43	No	+$1	02-15 22:40
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 9?	2	$21	24	0	+24	No	+$3	05-08 05:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 05:33:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on November 1?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xdc4eea…
10-31 05:14:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on November 1?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0xdbfd78…
10-28 19:57:08	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x839703…
10-28 17:25:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on October 29?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x54fcae…
10-28 05:03:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 29?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xa0b783…
10-27 04:02:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 28?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x765442…
10-26 06:29:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 27?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xc9f899…
10-25 12:36:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x784a83…
10-25 05:13:23	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 26?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0x9fa69f…
10-24 13:39:08	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 25?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x9fd075…
10-23 09:09:00	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x1e6935…
10-22 13:10:59	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 23?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xccdfcd…
10-21 04:24:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 22?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xcd94e2…
10-20 19:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 21?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x71ec53…
10-18 18:20:21	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 19?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xa52411…
10-18 11:45:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 19?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x47ae05…
10-18 05:10:41	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on October 19?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x06b2a9…
10-17 15:51:53	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$0	0x62ff28…
10-17 15:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$6	0xf833aa…
10-17 05:11:53	highest temperature in wuhan on october 18 2026 23c	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xe04e32…
10-16 21:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 17?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x9f5bd0…
10-16 20:51:18	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 17?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x70bfbe…
10-16 16:37:27	highest temperature in sao paulo on october 17 2026 25c	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x969c52…
10-16 11:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 17?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x60585c…
10-16 05:45:51	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x548343…
10-16 05:01:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on October 17?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xf95bae…
10-15 16:04:50	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on October 16?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x670b8e…
10-15 11:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on October 16?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x800b97…
10-14 17:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 15?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xfb8da9…
10-14 14:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on October 15?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xc4e390…
10-14 11:05:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 15?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xd893e6…
10-13 21:12:10	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xb37ec7…
10-13 11:12:29	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on October 14?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xe3b395…
10-13 04:00:41	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 14?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x5efd38…
10-12 17:32:56	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on October 13?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x1f1ead…
10-12 16:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 13?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x446228…
10-12 15:49:05	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on October 13?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0xe25bc3…
10-11 17:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc1d16b…
10-11 11:25:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xa77324…
10-11 11:05:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xaf1581…
10-11 07:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on October 12?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xee80c2…
10-11 00:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xa9e6a7…
10-10 20:51:04	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x16836d…
10-10 13:34:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 11?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x13226b…
10-10 04:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xa85fc1…
10-09 05:55:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 10?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x019e91…
10-09 04:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on October 10?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x492066…
10-08 17:57:48	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xdce047…
10-08 16:42:56	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on October 9?	No	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0xbf882a…
10-08 12:21:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on October 9?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xcca8b5…
10-07 18:15:22	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x0b210e…
10-07 16:00:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on October 8?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0xfabd3f…
10-07 04:51:33	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xd33e67…
10-06 04:20:31	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on October 6?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xe5c3a5…
10-05 10:47:38	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0x885351…
10-05 10:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on October 6?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0x47bf29…
10-05 06:42:26	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 6?	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x389316…
10-04 11:01:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on October 5?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x779531…
10-02 13:31:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on October 3?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xaec247…
10-02 10:50:59	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 3?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xc2045a…
10-02 10:46:44	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 3?	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xc729f4…
10-02 05:34:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 3?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x177458…
10-01 12:34:32	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 2?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xc8e707…
10-01 06:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0x64bbed…
09-30 14:52:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on October 1?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x6ee01d…
09-30 09:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 1?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xa483a7…
09-30 07:57:14	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x0278c5…
09-30 04:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on October 1?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x8e5fa6…
09-29 11:43:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 30?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x169644…
09-29 11:41:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 30?	No	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0xc3186b…
09-29 06:00:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 30?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x0ec79f…
09-28 14:14:26	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 29?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x2117fe…
09-28 12:42:17	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on September 29?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0xff770b…
09-28 08:32:35	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 29?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x866e83…
09-28 07:20:09	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x5eaa8d…
09-28 05:32:33	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 29?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x0cbd0a…
09-28 05:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 29?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x2c4997…
09-28 04:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 29?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x88c90a…
09-27 18:03:24	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7ee515…
09-26 11:06:50	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 27?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xd92933…
09-26 04:04:08	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x8873c3…
09-25 18:56:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 26?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x9f8dab…
09-25 13:40:17	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 26?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xfb7ae1…
09-25 13:08:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 26?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x24ca9f…
09-25 11:58:09	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on September 26?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x316c32…
09-25 09:50:36	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 26?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x9e2209…
09-25 04:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 26?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x941f22…
09-24 13:41:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 25?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xb325e6…
09-24 06:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 25?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x866971…
09-23 17:14:53	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xce39e0…
09-23 16:03:10	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x118791…
09-23 16:02:16	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa6c600…
09-23 11:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 24?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x714f33…
09-22 07:12:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x355456…
09-22 07:10:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x69a39c…
09-21 19:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on September 22?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x8dbc04…
09-21 11:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 22?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xaad4c3…
09-21 04:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x17ff12…
09-20 07:01:09	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xa7f557…
09-20 04:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xa2881e…