(anonymous) 0x03601e…7e0469
new
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Realized P&L (7d)
+$19
Unrealized P&L
+$9
Hit rate
49.8%
Resolved (7d)
7
Trades (7d)
409
397 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$11.7K
$11.6K lifetime
Avg / trade
$29
Open exposure
$5.03K
27 positions
First seen
2026-10-23
last 10-27 03:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
55% 50% +$18
Other
33% 67% +$1
Tech
10% — —
Crypto
2% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
5 active days in 12wk • peak 203 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +837 $595 92¢ $766 +$171 10-25 21:58
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +709 $623 98¢ $691 +$68 10-23 16:48
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +544 $484 94¢ $512 +$28 10-23 13:13
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +503 $303 88¢ $445 +$142 10-24 05:17
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? No +503 $386 80¢ $405 +$19 10-24 08:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +500 $365 68¢ $339 -$26 10-24 10:58
No one announced as next James Bond? No +420 $308 75¢ $316 +$8 10-25 16:42
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +270 $264 98¢ $263 -$1 10-25 10:22
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +290 $201 67¢ $194 -$7 10-26 03:16
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? No +500 $130 33¢ $166 +$35 10-24 10:58
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +202 $139 72¢ $144 +$5 10-25 20:09
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +459 $140 29¢ $131 -$9 10-25 20:09
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +843 $240 16¢ $131 -$109 10-25 21:58
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +130 $100 76¢ $99 -$1 10-25 09:30
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +292 $95 32¢ $94 -$1 10-26 03:16
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +68 $63 98¢ $66 +$4 10-25 22:54
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? Yes +999 $205 6¢ $55 -$150 10-23 16:37
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? No +504 $195 9¢ $47 -$148 10-24 05:17
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +49 $42 94¢ $46 +$4 10-26 14:22
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +181 $40 24¢ $43 +$2 10-25 09:30
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? Yes +544 $54 6¢ $32 -$22 10-23 13:11
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? No +110 $22 20¢ $21 -$1 10-26 22:02
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +94 $12 16¢ $15 +$3 10-26 09:57
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No +27 $1 12¢ $3 +$2 10-26 14:22
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? No +22 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 10-25 22:03
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? No +68 $3 2¢ $1 -$2 10-25 22:54
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Yes +829 $1 0¢ $1 +$0 10-23 16:55