Late-Steak — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.87K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

1,911

Trades

2,769

lifetime

Volume

$14.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-15

last 10-19 04:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

67% 36% +$1,340

Crypto

22% 75% +$37

Politics

7% 36% +$493

Sports

2% — —

Tech

2% 0% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will russia capture orikhiv by march 31 2027	No		+0	$2	76¢	$0	-$2	10-12 20:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	9	$1.5K	810	2,110	-1,300	No	+$594	03-26 14:52
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	18	$1.2K	813	1,057	-245	Yes	-$88	03-26 14:57
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	9	$974	626	626	+0	Yes	+$236	03-16 05:44
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	10	$772	612	1,906	-1,294	No	+$388	03-15 14:55
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	19	$447	415	3,320	-2,905	No	+$347	03-15 06:42
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$406	200	1,400	-1,200	No	+$294	03-15 16:32
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$307	200	1,000	-800	No	+$202	03-16 13:36
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	6	$174	150	150	+0	open	—	10-18 12:27
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	2	$150	100	100	+0	open	—	10-08 19:51
Will Augusto Cury win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	8	$134	165	165	+0	No	+$0	10-03 01:55
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	6	$97	113	113	-0	open	—	10-04 03:00
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	4	$96	100	100	+0	open	—	10-18 19:21
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$83	50	50	+0	open	—	10-14 09:28
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7?	2	$82	50	50	+0	No	$0	10-06 07:00
Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026?	6	$70	40	51	-11	open	—	10-11 14:29
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	4	$67	75	75	+0	open	—	10-11 02:42
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	2	$64	50	50	+0	open	—	10-18 15:08
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?	2	$64	50	50	+0	open	—	10-11 15:21
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	2	$63	50	50	+0	open	—	10-19 04:46
Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	2	$62	60	60	+0	open	—	10-13 22:35
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	1	$60	133	0	+133	No	-$60	07-10 05:44
Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	7	$57	60	60	+0	open	—	10-03 20:46
Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?	4	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	10-10 21:24
Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	4	$57	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	10-01 20:45
Will Justin Herbert have 4,099.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	4	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	10-07 15:54
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	6	$57	45	45	+0	open	—	10-15 15:15
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in October?	4	$56	36	36	+0	Yes	+$0	10-02 15:41
APYX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	4	$53	35	35	+0	open	—	10-15 06:30
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?	2	$52	50	50	+0	open	—	10-11 23:27
Will Bournemouth reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal?	6	$51	50	50	+0	open	—	10-13 22:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 04:48:45	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x496522…
10-19 04:48:24	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x0c1451…
10-19 04:48:03	Will Jacksonville State Gamecocks Win the 2026 Conference USA Championship?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xcb75e2…
10-19 04:47:44	Will the Chicago Bears make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x954acf…
10-19 04:47:15	Will the New Orleans Saints have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x99c15d…
10-19 04:46:53	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x07da9b…
10-18 21:43:36	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x2e1d4a…
10-18 21:41:20	Will the Chicago Bears make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xb79887…
10-18 21:29:06	Will the New Orleans Saints have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x817d4d…
10-18 21:20:53	Will Jacksonville State Gamecocks Win the 2026 Conference USA Championship?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x186925…
10-18 21:09:48	Will the Houston Texans have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xa4ae87…
10-18 20:53:48	Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0xc1bab7…
10-18 20:35:39	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xa952aa…
10-18 20:21:05	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$5	0xa481d5…
10-18 20:18:48	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	38¢	$5	0x147b88…
10-18 20:11:45	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x7a6bba…
10-18 20:01:17	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0xc68d4f…
10-18 19:54:11	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x3b87a9…
10-18 19:42:21	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x49fd99…
10-18 19:21:59	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x10d80b…
10-18 18:55:11	Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xd32fd6…
10-18 18:09:12	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x725332…
10-18 18:02:27	Will Seattle have between 1.75 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x1b9efc…
10-18 17:45:59	Will Seattle have between 1.75 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xb7ac99…
10-18 17:31:44	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	39¢	$2	0xb8974d…
10-18 17:09:36	Will the Houston Texans have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xfa7594…
10-18 16:53:36	Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd6d00e…
10-18 16:53:36	Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd14f7c…
10-18 16:45:24	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xe55134…
10-18 16:18:38	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x2f9f51…
10-18 15:52:11	Will Ethena dip to $0.12 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xfbd223…
10-18 15:51:05	Will Ethena dip to $0.12 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x7f45c8…
10-18 15:43:54	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x88e9c0…
10-18 15:37:05	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x5b819c…
10-18 15:08:56	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	50	63¢	$32	0x3d8746…
10-18 14:55:03	Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xea561b…
10-18 14:31:03	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x91c3f8…
10-18 14:07:23	Will Malik Willis have 2,449.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x51132e…
10-18 14:01:47	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x0d7ddb…
10-18 14:00:33	Will Malik Willis have 2,449.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xb79ba5…
10-18 13:26:08	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0xe377e2…
10-18 12:47:53	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	43¢	$13	0x31d40a…
10-18 12:27:00	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0xd6f237…
10-18 11:59:17	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x395c8b…
10-18 11:50:51	Will Ethena dip to $0.12 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x66d79a…
10-18 11:23:57	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.5B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x2a9762…
10-18 10:20:39	Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0xbefe99…
10-18 08:38:33	Will Chainlink reach $16 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x45b25b…
10-18 08:26:48	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x4bf78b…
10-18 08:26:47	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0x0521f0…
10-18 07:33:09	Will Blake Corum have 474.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xe375fe…
10-18 07:32:47	Will Texas have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xb3790e…
10-18 07:32:32	OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?	Anthropic	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0xd290b9…
10-18 07:32:18	Will LSU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xf82d20…
10-18 07:32:05	Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0x1090ce…
10-18 06:26:39	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x8c9c48…
10-18 06:26:24	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Yes	SELL	50	25¢	$12	0x28ca65…
10-18 06:20:39	Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x077029…
10-18 04:42:38	OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?	Anthropic	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xffc75f…
10-18 04:38:26	Will Chainlink reach $16 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xd39d5a…
10-18 03:10:15	Will Sam Darnold have 20.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x172794…
10-18 02:02:42	Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x8e187f…
10-18 01:31:35	Will Blake Corum have 474.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x44b5b0…
10-18 01:17:27	Will Sam Darnold have 20.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x1d014e…
10-17 22:46:20	Will LSU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x7a3265…
10-17 22:23:24	Will LSU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x852e6f…
10-17 22:23:17	Will LSU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x390b24…
10-17 22:23:11	Will LSU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x3a597d…
10-17 22:02:36	Will California have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x8b75e7…
10-17 22:02:23	Will Texas have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0x2a6c15…
10-17 18:40:09	Will Texas have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xe7d1c9…
10-17 18:40:09	Will Texas have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x132b9a…
10-17 17:55:45	Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	63¢	$0	0xb6c098…
10-17 17:26:00	Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x738cf5…
10-17 17:04:45	Will Lighter dip to $2.5 before 2027?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x845553…
10-17 16:48:08	Will London have between 35-45mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x797067…
10-17 12:13:08	Will London have between 35-45mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x1f74d9…
10-17 10:39:26	Will Luther Burden III have 424.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xe3bb69…
10-17 10:39:12	will n1 launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xf83cf0…
10-17 10:39:02	bank of mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after december 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0xe94d0f…
10-17 10:38:44	Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x8a531f…
10-17 09:18:12	Will Lille finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	18	43¢	$8	0x170e74…
10-17 04:10:00	bank of mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after december 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xbf9a82…
10-17 04:07:27	Will Lille finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	18	42¢	$7	0xe1cd76…
10-17 04:00:29	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x37438a…
10-17 02:24:05	Will Caleb Williams have 21.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x487795…
10-17 02:22:54	Will Caleb Williams have 21.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x12b3f3…
10-17 02:02:20	Will QFEX launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	40¢	$12	0xbafa57…
10-17 02:00:24	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x7c6319…
10-17 01:23:47	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	7	34¢	$3	0x523f44…
10-17 01:23:45	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0xbcb16e…
10-17 01:23:45	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x2ebef0…
10-17 01:23:44	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x1a3478…
10-17 01:23:42	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x4d0dd2…
10-17 01:23:21	Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xe39b88…
10-16 23:12:59	Will QFEX launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x9ea8d3…
10-16 22:22:42	Will Caleb Williams have 21.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x5cdfc4…
10-16 21:14:23	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x072a23…
10-16 21:12:51	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x0f25d8…
10-16 19:42:20	Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x4f7e11…