Frigid-Sale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$680

Unrealized P&L

+$43

Hit rate

63.2%

Resolved

667

Trades

4,636

lifetime

Volume

$141.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

$832

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-25 23:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 106 days

Categories

Other

53% 53% +$575

Politics

37% 59% +$736

Crypto

4% 38% +$102

Tech

3% 69% -$793

Sports

2% 64% +$60

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No		+886	$790	94¢	$832	+$43	09-26 09:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	159	$11.1K	5,495	5,843	-348	No	-$3	02-16 17:49
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	59	$3.1K	1,594	1,641	-47	No	+$14	02-11 15:01
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	108	$2.5K	1,564	1,536	+28	No	-$1	03-25 19:30
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	33	$2.4K	1,380	1,380	-0	Yes	+$23	02-16 17:48
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	58	$2.3K	1,695	1,451	+244	Yes	-$1	01-30 17:14
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$2.3K	1,177	1,177	+0	No	+$41	03-19 19:19
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	33	$1.7K	918	918	+0	No	+$21	03-25 19:28
will seguro win all of portugals districts	32	$1.7K	990	990	+0	Yes	+$90	02-08 20:37
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	14	$1.5K	774	774	+0	No	+$29	03-27 11:35
Will the US strike Somalia next?	44	$1.3K	794	583	+211	Yes	+$10	01-15 23:20
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	22	$1.3K	783	783	+0	No	+$154	02-16 17:48
crude oil all time high by march 31	27	$1.2K	636	636	+0	No	+$10	03-27 18:42
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	13	$1.2K	669	669	+0	No	-$1	03-27 11:35
bad bunny video becomes most viewed sb halftime on youtube in 1st month	24	$1.2K	644	644	+0	No	+$29	02-13 16:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	5	$1.2K	628	615	+13	No	+$11	03-29 05:25
italy nordio reform referendum passes	59	$1.1K	1,015	1,031	-17	No	-$58	03-23 16:35
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	25	$1.1K	846	846	+0	No	-$279	03-26 03:49
US recession by end of 2026?	7	$1.1K	1,035	149	+886	open	—	09-26 09:50
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	12	$1.0K	536	536	+0	No	+$6	02-11 16:26
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the february meeting	4	$1.0K	525	525	+0	Yes	+$1	02-13 10:42
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	32	$1.0K	705	636	+70	Yes	+$188	03-30 14:48
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	19	$957	485	485	-0	No	+$5	01-24 02:06
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	17	$951	981	102	+879	Yes	+$0	03-23 15:54
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	25	$947	489	486	+3	No	+$3	02-05 09:46
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	32	$936	602	602	+0	No	+$28	03-31 21:42
will zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the world economic forum	32	$912	681	253	+427	No	+$19	01-23 23:40
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	15	$829	417	427	-9	No	+$3	01-31 02:18
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	14	$825	460	460	+0	Yes	+$39	02-16 17:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$806	447	447	+0	No	+$19	04-17 07:33
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	41	$800	1,092	1,092	+0	No	-$472	02-16 17:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:36:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	636	94¢	$598	0x9f68d1…
10-25 23:36:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	46	94¢	$44	0x75c699…
09-26 09:50:09	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	149	90¢	$134	0x88176f…
09-25 15:02:32	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	132	89¢	$117	0x589886…
09-25 14:46:48	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	283	90¢	$255	0xfdbc57…
09-25 14:46:12	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0xd1ba34…
09-25 14:46:12	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	283	89¢	$252	0x97476d…
09-25 14:46:11	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0xcb35a1…
09-15 19:37:12	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	BUY	451	97¢	$437	0xc5d9f3…
06-15 16:08:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	110	99¢	$108	0x6acbd5…
06-15 15:35:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x4a2182…
06-15 15:35:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x4392d9…
06-15 15:35:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x3a2b17…
06-15 15:35:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xf4fd92…
06-15 15:35:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe60888…
06-15 15:35:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x4974ac…
06-15 15:35:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1deb0b…
06-15 15:35:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x0fc766…
06-15 15:30:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xe8a184…
05-31 15:17:49	Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	SELL	58	9¢	$5	0xa7c4fe…
05-29 07:45:21	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$287	0xdfbb8e…
05-29 07:44:00	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$287	0xd79bba…
05-27 17:37:06	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0x0cfeea…
05-19 03:36:56	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	43¢	$64	0x19ad7d…
05-12 20:16:49	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	82¢	$57	0x9eb060…
05-03 20:30:26	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	54	85¢	$46	0xff9d65…
04-17 07:34:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x8b4e6b…
04-17 07:34:02	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x1cd51e…
04-17 07:34:00	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x5baaf3…
04-17 07:33:58	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	SELL	43	41¢	$18	0x7031ae…
04-17 07:33:54	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	51	93¢	$48	0xe463b4…
04-17 07:33:50	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	94¢	$56	0x0efeca…
04-17 07:33:46	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	SELL	67	30¢	$20	0x8f0842…
04-17 07:33:44	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	SELL	75	97¢	$73	0x2eb737…
04-17 07:33:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0x5422b5…
04-17 07:33:34	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	92	87¢	$80	0x759ddd…
04-17 07:33:30	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	137	10¢	$14	0x703f3d…
04-17 07:33:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	199	96¢	$191	0x91d26f…
03-31 21:42:43	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	SELL	294	100¢	$294	0xacc8d6…
03-31 21:42:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0x84202c…
03-31 21:42:43	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	SELL	117	99¢	$115	0x7ad483…
03-31 21:42:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	No	SELL	223	99¢	$221	0x60707a…
03-31 21:42:41	another us bank failure by march 31	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xe4fc06…
03-31 21:42:41	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	173	100¢	$173	0x57d661…
03-31 21:42:39	iran leadership change by march 31	No	SELL	75	99¢	$75	0xf92a99…
03-31 21:42:39	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	SELL	69	99¢	$68	0x8097d6…
03-31 21:42:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	531	31¢	$165	0xb69ffb…
03-31 21:42:37	will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	No	SELL	35	93¢	$33	0x98814f…
03-31 21:42:37	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	No	SELL	195	100¢	$195	0x61bbbd…
03-31 21:42:37	us evacuates baghdad embassy by march 31	No	SELL	148	99¢	$147	0x565090…
03-31 21:42:35	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	92	100¢	$91	0xc0cba6…
03-31 21:42:35	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	159	100¢	$158	0x50a1cd…
03-31 21:42:35	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	No	SELL	97	99¢	$97	0x317e76…
03-31 21:42:33	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	252	30¢	$77	0xc5dc7b…
03-31 21:42:31	ukraine hits moscow by march 31 2026	No	SELL	121	97¢	$117	0xf8a110…
03-31 21:42:31	will uk strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0x6d23cf…
03-31 21:42:29	will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	Yes	SELL	125	98¢	$123	0x82d18d…
03-31 21:42:27	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	158	100¢	$158	0xacaa48…
03-31 21:42:27	us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	No	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0x4f846c…
03-31 21:42:25	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	206	41¢	$84	0x1741f8…
03-31 21:42:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	440	36¢	$158	0x1341cf…
03-31 17:20:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	56	42¢	$24	0x2d3be0…
03-31 17:19:57	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xb6e304…
03-31 17:19:57	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x6946ea…
03-31 17:19:57	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x2e0033…
03-31 16:07:31	nhl wpg chi 2026 03 31	Jets	BUY	75	58¢	$44	0xa8b1dc…
03-31 16:07:31	nhl car cbj 2026 03 31	Hurricanes	BUY	75	55¢	$41	0x1c7f45…
03-31 16:04:51	nhl ott fla 2026 03 31	Senators	BUY	75	63¢	$47	0x923be8…
03-30 14:48:27	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x51a4cf…
03-30 13:40:47	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	45	16¢	$7	0xfbcacd…
03-30 13:31:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x02100b…
03-30 13:31:27	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x772640…
03-30 13:23:22	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	72	20¢	$14	0x2b7f73…
03-30 13:09:00	will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x13a318…
03-29 20:08:22	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	45	88¢	$39	0x4407bf…
03-29 20:07:54	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	45	87¢	$39	0xd885e9…
03-29 20:07:42	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x97f595…
03-29 19:55:46	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	41	80¢	$32	0x84df43…
03-29 19:54:24	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0xa2f947…
03-29 19:54:22	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x587d5a…
03-29 19:53:52	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0xb23f6c…
03-29 19:53:52	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	37	78¢	$29	0x8b9cb8…
03-29 05:25:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0xc1cca8…
03-29 02:14:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	137	84¢	$115	0x776af6…
03-29 02:05:36	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x859391…
03-29 00:03:38	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xde2537…
03-29 00:02:14	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x40c1f1…
03-28 20:59:18	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	60	21¢	$13	0xbad16d…
03-28 20:58:52	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	SELL	21	21¢	$4	0xc59849…
03-28 20:26:38	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	57	11¢	$6	0xab4fd9…
03-28 20:26:10	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	57	11¢	$6	0x80e74d…
03-28 09:35:15	pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5b4ce6…
03-27 18:42:01	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x29f2ef…
03-27 18:40:23	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x312cd0…
03-27 17:32:37	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	No	BUY	29	99¢	$28	0xb604e8…
03-27 16:38:55	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	49	12¢	$6	0x34766d…
03-27 16:29:21	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xbef82e…
03-27 16:10:55	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30?	No	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xb54507…
03-27 15:44:13	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	No	BUY	120	93¢	$112	0x8e5db4…
03-27 15:38:33	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x250c9d…