Testy-Counter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$230

Unrealized P&L

+$17

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

130

Trades

748

lifetime

Volume

$16.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$476

10 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 11-05 16:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Politics

74% 83% -$94

Other

23% 97% +$280

Tech

2% 100% +$20

Sports

0% 92% +$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	+560	$116	16¢	$87	-$29	11-05 15:44
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+157	$64	42¢	$66	+$2	11-05 14:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+60	$58	94¢	$57	-$1	11-05 12:59
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	+81	$46	64¢	$52	+$6	11-06 00:11
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	+79	$4	66¢	$52	+$48	11-06 00:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+77	$60	66¢	$51	-$9	10-25 02:19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	+37	$36	97¢	$36	+$0	11-05 00:25
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	+50	$30	66¢	$33	+$4	10-27 00:46
Will the KMT win the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections?	Yes	+60	$28	44¢	$26	-$1	11-05 16:04
Will Wu Pin-jui win the next Chiayi County Magistrate election?	Yes	+301	$20	6¢	$17	-$3	11-05 13:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	3	$691	446	246	+200	No	+$0	04-29 11:59
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	7	$458	268	208	+60	No	+$4	06-07 15:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$413	219	219	+0	No	+$14	05-31 15:37
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	12	$384	212	212	+0	No	+$33	09-14 10:37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	8	$371	206	206	+0	No	+$15	06-14 01:12
military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 15	5	$369	194	194	-0	No	+$8	10-15 07:22
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	8	$364	192	192	+0	No	+$17	06-13 01:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	5	$363	185	185	-0	open	—	11-05 00:22
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	26	$314	407	250	+157	open	—	11-05 14:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	5	$274	144	144	+0	Yes	+$6	10-06 05:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	13	$273	145	145	+0	Yes	+$7	10-24 16:07
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	7	$260	137	137	-0	Yes	+$5	10-12 09:36
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	6	$256	130	130	+0	Yes	+$2	08-03 07:31
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	10	$255	144	124	+20	Yes	+$8	10-14 11:59
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	4	$250	129	129	+0	No	+$5	06-07 10:26
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$248	178	78	+100	No	+$3	05-31 17:44
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	7	$240	138	138	+0	No	+$25	07-14 15:08
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	20	$238	296	197	+98	Yes	+$52	09-14 07:25
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	8	$225	120	120	-0	Yes	+$14	08-16 15:12
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	7	$221	120	120	+0	Yes	+$6	07-27 20:42
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	5	$221	116	116	+0	Yes	+$5	10-18 17:56
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	9	$219	118	118	+0	open	—	11-01 17:39
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	10	$215	120	120	+0	No	+$18	09-20 11:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	10	$204	108	108	-0	Yes	+$5	10-23 10:35
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13?	3	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	05-14 16:40
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 28	10	$196	108	108	-0	Yes	+$10	10-27 14:34
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	5	$192	102	102	+0	Yes	+$7	08-02 08:40
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	6	$189	102	102	+0	Yes	+$14	08-08 08:13
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	25	$184	660	100	+560	open	—	11-05 15:44
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	13	$181	109	89	+20	No	+$16	09-23 05:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 00:12:24	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0x509922…
11-06 00:11:07	Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0x989b56…
11-05 16:04:45	Will the KMT win the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0xc9285d…
11-05 16:04:45	Will the KMT win the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x2d4080…
11-05 15:44:45	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	55	14¢	$8	0xcd0127…
11-05 14:58:51	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0xbcd0f0…
11-05 14:11:55	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	45¢	$14	0xa481ed…
11-05 13:05:28	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	102	45¢	$46	0x98304e…
11-05 13:03:27	Will Wu Pin-jui win the next Chiayi County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	249	6¢	$15	0x728313…
11-05 12:59:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0x3f67ed…
11-05 12:58:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0x3a8874…
11-05 03:56:30	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0xf2f6df…
11-05 03:56:30	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	37	18¢	$7	0x15aebd…
11-05 00:25:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0x91ae7e…
11-05 00:24:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0x86d5e5…
11-05 00:24:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xbd4373…
11-05 00:23:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0xfb5317…
11-05 00:22:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xe5b958…
11-03 19:41:43	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	102	54¢	$55	0xa3acc7…
11-03 13:45:04	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x989780…
11-02 15:03:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x42abc6…
11-02 15:01:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0xf6fa1e…
11-02 14:59:25	Will Hsieh Lung-chieh win the next Tainan Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x8cb480…
11-02 14:57:36	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x589ad5…
11-02 14:53:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	68	93¢	$63	0x0b4e54…
11-02 14:52:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x60a1a6…
11-02 14:52:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	69	98¢	$68	0x51d6ca…
11-02 03:52:45	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x3f1547…
11-02 02:02:25	Will Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?	Yes	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0x90932d…
11-02 01:09:06	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x0eb0f8…
11-01 17:45:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xdc5569…
11-01 17:43:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	135	97¢	$131	0x1321ee…
11-01 17:42:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xa46418…
11-01 17:41:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	SELL	33	74¢	$24	0x4c12e1…
11-01 17:39:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	107	99¢	$106	0x251ffa…
10-31 02:49:57	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0xae24cc…
10-29 05:08:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$14	0xc4f604…
10-29 01:42:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	36	96¢	$34	0xe13370…
10-29 00:52:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0xa62e21…
10-28 10:35:41	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	81	19¢	$15	0x82093f…
10-27 14:38:48	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xa76dde…
10-27 14:35:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x7a9e44…
10-27 14:34:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0xa22602…
10-27 14:32:24	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	78	46¢	$36	0xed37ee…
10-27 04:51:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	28	92¢	$25	0x1fafc0…
10-27 04:51:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0x88bfaa…
10-27 00:46:39	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xdfd80e…
10-27 00:43:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa4aeb5…
10-27 00:38:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x908266…
10-26 21:03:54	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0x97a8e0…
10-26 21:03:54	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x8c04f4…
10-26 21:03:54	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x6729e2…
10-26 13:33:23	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x2b5b17…
10-26 12:18:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x31b4f0…
10-26 01:35:30	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x664a5e…
10-25 02:21:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0x569b98…
10-25 02:19:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	77¢	$60	0x5ab65e…
10-25 02:18:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	84	94¢	$79	0x9115b3…
10-24 16:08:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x06a7fd…
10-24 16:07:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	16	98¢	$15	0xfe6a1c…
10-24 12:50:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xa00f5f…
10-24 12:49:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x039c09…
10-24 12:48:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xa7afb4…
10-24 08:38:35	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xf21a0c…
10-24 08:37:26	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x85c2f2…
10-24 08:37:12	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xa4c60f…
10-24 08:37:00	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x45effa…
10-24 08:36:48	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x7281e7…
10-24 08:36:35	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xe7a9ab…
10-24 05:21:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x28db63…
10-24 05:20:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x926c0c…
10-24 05:20:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x98fd7c…
10-24 05:19:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x94a8e2…
10-24 03:31:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x864da6…
10-24 03:30:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0xe02fbd…
10-23 10:36:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	23	93¢	$21	0x3fac06…
10-23 10:35:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0xa02b8d…
10-23 03:51:15	Will Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x008f02…
10-23 03:51:05	Will Wei Ping-cheng win the next Changhua County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x884881…
10-22 17:37:56	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0xd47d12…
10-22 17:06:18	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x755d92…
10-22 17:04:27	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0x5d3589…
10-22 16:57:02	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xacb593…
10-22 16:56:47	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x99221a…
10-22 16:56:20	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x927e1e…
10-22 10:12:09	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0xe3defc…
10-22 10:11:36	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	91	47¢	$43	0xc0ed9b…
10-21 17:50:39	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xfd45c6…
10-21 17:50:39	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x6e85ec…
10-21 16:19:05	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x76c39f…
10-21 16:14:09	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	21	46¢	$10	0xa2cf70…
10-21 16:12:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x583be2…
10-21 16:11:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xf1e332…
10-21 16:11:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xcc884b…
10-21 16:11:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x7fff21…
10-21 16:09:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x33f6bf…
10-21 16:09:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0xd02cc8…
10-21 14:39:36	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x746135…
10-21 14:39:35	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xad8744…
10-21 14:39:35	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x381ad4…