Hard-Regret — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

302

Trades

1,308

lifetime

Volume

$3.77K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 07-17 11:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

44% 62% $-41

Politics

37% — —

Sports

10% — —

Tech

7% — —

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$164	120	60	+60	open	—	05-26 12:45
will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	5	$153	73	93	-20	open	—	06-11 23:35
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	9	$147	75	75	+0	open	—	06-11 04:01
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	3	$126	150	150	+0	open	—	06-11 23:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$126	63	76	-13	open	—	06-01 02:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$116	70	70	+0	open	—	05-14 04:07
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	12	$109	79	79	+0	open	—	05-14 06:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$88	48	48	+0	open	—	06-13 05:12
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	2	$79	62	62	+0	open	—	07-04 14:26
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$70	40	40	+0	open	—	06-05 00:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	2	$69	38	38	+0	open	—	06-19 02:38
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	3	$66	36	36	+0	open	—	07-17 11:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$66	68	0	+68	open	—	05-22 03:10
will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	4	$63	38	38	+0	open	—	07-04 19:21
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	06-18 04:09
will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	2	$61	39	39	+0	open	—	07-05 12:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-26 03:52
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	1	$47	0	47	-47	open	—	06-08 03:34
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	13	$47	60	60	+0	open	—	05-14 04:45
will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	2	$44	28	28	+0	open	—	07-02 20:56
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	4	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	06-17 03:30
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	2	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 02:11
bitcoin above 64k on july 6 2026	3	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	07-06 07:24
will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	2	$31	48	0	+48	open	—	06-18 10:26
will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	4	$31	24	24	+0	open	—	07-01 00:22
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$31	37	0	+37	open	—	06-23 08:50
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$31	36	0	+36	open	—	06-18 06:40
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	1	$23	30	0	+30	open	—	07-09 11:21
israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	2	$22	23	23	+0	open	—	07-17 02:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-11 04:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 11:09:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0xa81c31…
07-17 09:16:33	bitcoin above 64k on july 17 2026	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xf8bded…
07-17 04:51:04	bitcoin above 64k on july 17 2026	No	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x50fa8a…
07-17 02:20:07	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	No	SELL	23	2¢	$0	0xa18a98…
07-17 00:18:14	israeli parliament dissolved by july 16 20260713154904805	No	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0xef7523…
07-16 04:02:17	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	SELL	18	38¢	$7	0x8ba3b5…
07-16 00:25:10	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0x468e9a…
07-16 00:20:02	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x200e2b…
07-15 13:09:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0x9d94ea…
07-15 12:58:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x41bb89…
07-15 00:32:04	btc updown 15m 1784075400	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x59818a…
07-15 00:18:04	btc updown 15m 1784074500	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x10766f…
07-15 00:04:11	btc updown 15m 1784073600	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8755c9…
07-14 23:50:40	btc updown 15m 1784072700	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf868b8…
07-13 17:42:19	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	16	60¢	$10	0x8b9ffc…
07-10 05:20:31	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xf4bb01…
07-10 05:20:11	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x408c32…
07-09 11:21:16	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x0d6b51…
07-09 09:39:46	btc updown 5m 1783589700	Down	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x6924c5…
07-09 09:38:58	btc updown 5m 1783589700	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xd18416…
07-09 09:38:58	btc updown 5m 1783589700	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x67b8df…
07-09 09:18:31	btc updown 15m 1783588500	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x39876c…
07-09 08:56:05	btc updown 15m 1783586700	Down	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xe2e488…
07-09 08:54:25	btc updown 15m 1783586700	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x90fd2f…
07-09 08:54:25	btc updown 15m 1783586700	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x495104…
07-09 08:36:05	btc updown 15m 1783585800	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x38b89e…
07-09 08:15:56	btc updown 15m 1783584900	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x622b05…
07-09 08:00:58	btc updown 15m 1783584000	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x8f86bf…
07-09 07:59:16	btc updown 15m 1783583100	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x070464…
07-09 07:53:37	btc updown 5m 1783583400	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x48f8c7…
07-09 07:25:44	btc updown 15m 1783581300	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x269f01…
07-09 07:20:59	btc updown 15m 1783581300	Up	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x4c598d…
07-09 07:16:07	btc updown 15m 1783581300	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x3a2552…
07-09 07:08:23	btc updown 15m 1783580400	Up	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xb1248a…
07-09 07:03:20	btc updown 15m 1783580400	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xda5118…
07-09 06:59:28	btc updown 15m 1783579500	Up	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x95d093…
07-09 06:58:07	btc updown 15m 1783579500	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x38e380…
07-09 06:54:10	btc updown 15m 1783579500	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xf3cdf7…
07-09 06:49:52	btc updown 15m 1783579500	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xef9cf9…
07-09 04:47:47	btc updown 15m 1783572300	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0xeeed8f…
07-09 04:47:47	btc updown 15m 1783572300	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xb9f643…
07-09 04:40:14	bitcoin above 60k on july 9 2026	No	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0x35d710…
07-09 02:56:28	bitcoin above 60k on july 9 2026	No	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0x48d122…
07-09 02:47:58	btc updown 15m 1783565100	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x26aee3…
07-09 02:43:52	btc updown 15m 1783565100	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x813685…
07-09 01:40:22	btc updown 15m 1783560600	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xc31e01…
07-09 01:33:14	btc updown 15m 1783560600	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$2	0xee37c6…
07-09 01:33:14	btc updown 15m 1783560600	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xe1ea5a…
07-09 01:24:47	btc updown 15m 1783559700	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf88f47…
07-09 01:02:02	btc updown 15m 1783558800	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x2a6c49…
07-09 00:51:11	btc updown 15m 1783557900	Down	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xdb2858…
07-09 00:51:11	btc updown 15m 1783557900	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x9460be…
07-09 00:48:32	btc updown 15m 1783557900	Up	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x86f363…
07-09 00:47:05	btc updown 15m 1783557900	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xee49b3…
07-09 00:47:05	btc updown 15m 1783557900	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x2c8712…
07-09 00:44:22	btc updown 15m 1783557000	Down	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x0c2c65…
07-09 00:42:28	btc updown 15m 1783557000	Down	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x2c5f7c…
07-09 00:40:53	btc updown 15m 1783557000	Up	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x2e71b6…
07-09 00:38:04	btc updown 15m 1783557000	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xe50079…
07-09 00:33:49	btc updown 15m 1783557000	Down	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xbf655d…
07-09 00:30:05	btc updown 15m 1783557000	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x2a061b…
07-09 00:16:50	btc updown 15m 1783556100	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xa991a2…
07-08 16:17:16	btc updown 15m 1783527300	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x1ae8b1…
07-08 16:16:17	btc updown 15m 1783527300	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x0a6848…
07-08 12:08:44	btc updown 15m 1783512000	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x8c96fb…
07-08 02:44:20	btc updown 15m 1783477800	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x926602…
07-08 02:44:20	btc updown 15m 1783477800	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x5c4eae…
07-08 02:42:17	btc updown 15m 1783477800	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x1fb7ae…
07-08 02:11:11	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2b1818…
07-08 01:56:31	btc updown 15m 1783475100	Down	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x46d28d…
07-08 01:45:38	btc updown 15m 1783475100	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xc3d062…
07-08 01:23:13	btc updown 15m 1783473300	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x5f659c…
07-07 11:50:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x37d4d1…
07-07 07:58:56	btc updown 15m 1783410300	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x11ef4e…
07-07 07:58:55	btc updown 15m 1783410300	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xade232…
07-07 07:49:11	btc updown 15m 1783410300	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xf024e5…
07-07 04:42:05	btc updown 15m 1783398600	Down	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdbf8f7…
07-07 04:42:05	btc updown 15m 1783398600	Down	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xc649f6…
07-07 04:38:17	btc updown 15m 1783398600	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x971d36…
07-07 03:27:28	btc updown 15m 1783394100	Down	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x7d1fb0…
07-07 03:27:28	btc updown 15m 1783394100	Down	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x624878…
07-07 03:20:26	btc updown 15m 1783394100	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x83b0e5…
07-07 03:20:26	btc updown 15m 1783394100	Down	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x465706…
07-07 03:13:19	btc updown 15m 1783393200	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x58ddc0…
07-07 03:04:53	btc updown 15m 1783393200	Up	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0x34b338…
07-07 03:04:52	btc updown 15m 1783393200	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x8ddb9c…
07-07 02:43:56	btc updown 15m 1783391400	Down	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x5a7a77…
07-07 02:35:23	btc updown 15m 1783391400	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xc28536…
07-07 02:35:23	btc updown 15m 1783391400	Down	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x02c09b…
07-07 02:13:56	btc updown 15m 1783389600	Down	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xfa14c7…
07-07 02:04:25	btc updown 15m 1783389600	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x4be3a6…
07-07 01:59:04	btc updown 15m 1783388700	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x3e8d1d…
07-07 01:57:55	btc updown 15m 1783388700	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe5896e…
07-07 01:57:55	btc updown 15m 1783388700	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x4a812f…
07-07 00:48:04	btc updown 15m 1783385100	Up	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x4b6dc7…
07-07 00:48:04	btc updown 15m 1783385100	Up	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x21ba88…
07-07 00:29:16	btc updown 5m 1783383900	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x836f82…
07-07 00:09:26	btc updown 5m 1783382700	Up	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x1998b3…
07-07 00:07:13	btc updown 5m 1783382700	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x050b6e…
07-06 13:31:29	bitcoin above 62k on july 6 2026	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x310c16…