Hard-Regret — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

302

Trades

1,188

lifetime

Volume

$3.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 07-01 14:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

44% 62% $-41

Politics

42% — —

Sports

7% — —

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$164	120	60	+60	open	—	05-26 12:45
will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	5	$153	73	93	-20	open	—	06-11 23:35
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	9	$147	75	75	+0	open	—	06-11 04:01
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	3	$126	150	150	+0	open	—	06-11 23:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$126	63	76	-13	open	—	06-01 02:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$116	70	70	+0	open	—	05-14 04:07
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	12	$109	79	79	+0	open	—	05-14 06:17
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$88	48	48	+0	open	—	06-13 05:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$70	40	40	+0	open	—	06-05 00:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	2	$69	38	38	+0	open	—	06-19 02:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$66	68	0	+68	open	—	05-22 03:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	06-18 04:09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-26 03:52
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	1	$47	0	47	-47	open	—	06-08 03:34
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	13	$47	60	60	+0	open	—	05-14 04:45
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	4	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	06-17 03:30
will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	1	$31	38	0	+38	open	—	06-19 13:03
will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	2	$31	48	0	+48	open	—	06-18 10:26
will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	4	$31	24	24	+0	open	—	07-01 00:22
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$31	37	0	+37	open	—	06-23 08:50
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$31	36	0	+36	open	—	06-18 06:40
will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	1	$30	39	0	+39	open	—	07-01 14:34
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	1	$30	62	0	+62	open	—	06-26 22:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-11 04:02
will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	2	$17	28	28	+0	open	—	07-01 06:02
will japan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120756	1	$16	37	0	+37	open	—	06-21 06:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	Down	+$0	05-11 05:44
will usa reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134479	1	$11	32	0	+32	open	—	06-19 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$9	10	0	+10	Up	+$1	05-07 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	10	$8	18	18	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 01:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 14:34:32	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	No	BUY	39	78¢	$30	0x3331c2…
07-01 06:02:47	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	Yes	SELL	28	31¢	$9	0xa0a6c8…
07-01 00:22:58	will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	No	SELL	24	64¢	$15	0x8c8513…
06-29 05:50:47	will croatia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120780	Yes	BUY	28	30¢	$8	0xba788f…
06-26 22:44:04	will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	Yes	BUY	62	49¢	$30	0x693845…
06-23 08:50:11	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	37	83¢	$31	0xc7f964…
06-21 17:00:32	will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x82818a…
06-21 14:21:40	will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	No	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0x285abf…
06-21 07:02:17	will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	No	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x377743…
06-21 06:15:01	will japan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120756	Yes	BUY	37	43¢	$16	0x4ae23b…
06-19 14:44:23	will usa reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134479	Yes	BUY	32	35¢	$11	0x7f6a3d…
06-19 13:03:53	will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	No	BUY	38	81¢	$31	0x6d1b53…
06-19 02:38:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xfb3c7a…
06-18 10:26:11	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x5c9b15…
06-18 09:54:55	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x99c484…
06-18 06:40:29	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0x91485b…
06-18 04:09:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x7a2ead…
06-17 07:30:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	BUY	38	81¢	$31	0x87e587…
06-17 06:44:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x1295dd…
06-17 03:30:12	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf3f2a0…
06-17 03:18:57	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x7534dd…
06-16 12:58:27	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x891e75…
06-16 11:58:24	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x428d49…
06-13 05:12:39	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xe7e0bf…
06-12 10:01:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0xec7f0e…
06-11 23:59:36	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	150	33¢	$50	0x93a533…
06-11 23:35:45	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	SELL	93	100¢	$93	0x60e41f…
06-11 04:39:00	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xead023…
06-11 04:38:52	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x8b4f12…
06-11 04:32:03	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	15	83¢	$13	0x110b1b…
06-11 04:24:45	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0x858af3…
06-11 04:01:52	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x3393e4…
06-11 01:57:15	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0xc4764c…
06-11 01:09:46	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xed0d16…
06-11 01:09:46	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	145	51¢	$74	0xc63643…
06-11 01:08:57	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x827f24…
06-11 01:08:33	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x26c795…
06-11 01:08:28	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0bf3a3…
06-11 01:08:27	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x43d44b…
06-11 01:08:24	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9c41fe…
06-11 01:08:18	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3aec01…
06-11 01:08:16	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xe9aa41…
06-08 03:34:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0x775150…
06-05 00:14:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x983394…
06-03 10:03:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x665d8d…
06-01 02:03:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x00728a…
05-27 12:21:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x93584a…
05-27 11:59:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xb09430…
05-27 08:05:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x36d8a8…
05-27 06:41:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xd1b7de…
05-26 12:45:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xe35809…
05-26 11:32:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xba433a…
05-26 07:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1149ce…
05-26 07:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9d7f18…
05-26 05:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xcc8fa8…
05-26 05:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x63c95f…
05-26 05:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x48c726…
05-26 05:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc68371…
05-26 04:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x13c36b…
05-26 04:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x73c858…
05-26 04:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x33fd25…
05-26 04:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x9d1c62…
05-26 04:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9beb33…
05-26 03:52:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa8859e…
05-26 03:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xc5bbdd…
05-26 03:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3cc728…
05-26 03:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0510e5…
05-26 03:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2654db…
05-26 03:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfa7f20…
05-26 02:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa876b3…
05-26 02:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x641606…
05-26 02:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2350ff…
05-26 02:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xac81f2…
05-26 02:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1effd0…
05-26 02:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x06272d…
05-26 02:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xa2dcc5…
05-26 02:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x6e4a47…
05-26 01:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xec1a03…
05-26 01:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x44ffd9…
05-26 01:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x725548…
05-26 01:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x37ff0f…
05-26 01:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x1f6d9b…
05-26 01:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfe90da…
05-26 01:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa2d4f2…
05-26 01:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x37d5d7…
05-26 00:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x61e71c…
05-26 00:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8eea71…
05-26 00:34:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xcb5500…
05-26 00:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x883fa0…
05-26 00:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8bda09…
05-26 00:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x778a2c…
05-26 00:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x0d1055…
05-26 00:02:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xfd59b9…
05-25 23:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x9818cb…
05-25 23:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x29d14b…
05-25 23:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$2	0xdfad4d…
05-25 23:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x690506…
05-25 23:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x9a30f4…
05-25 23:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x8e01a9…
05-25 23:35:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x8f3a81…