Hard-Regret — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

302

Trades

1,427

lifetime

Volume

$4.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 08-09 18:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 62% $-41

Politics

34% — —

Sports

9% — —

Other

9% — —

Tech

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	11	$172	93	93	+0	open	—	08-09 18:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$164	120	60	+60	open	—	05-26 12:45
will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	5	$153	73	93	-20	open	—	06-11 23:35
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	9	$147	75	75	+0	open	—	06-11 04:01
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	3	$126	150	150	+0	open	—	06-11 23:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$126	63	76	-13	open	—	06-01 02:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$116	70	70	+0	open	—	05-14 04:07
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	12	$109	79	79	+0	open	—	05-14 06:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	6	$105	104	104	+0	open	—	08-04 13:33
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$88	48	48	+0	open	—	06-13 05:12
will france reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149741	2	$79	62	62	+0	open	—	07-04 14:26
iran full airspace closure by august 15	3	$78	50	50	-0	open	—	08-04 13:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$70	40	40	+0	open	—	06-05 00:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	2	$69	38	38	+0	open	—	06-19 02:38
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	3	$66	36	36	+0	open	—	07-17 11:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$66	68	0	+68	open	—	05-22 03:10
will norway reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149743	4	$63	38	38	+0	open	—	07-04 19:21
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	06-18 04:09
will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	2	$61	39	39	+0	open	—	07-05 12:28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-26 03:52
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	1	$47	0	47	-47	open	—	06-08 03:34
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	13	$47	60	60	+0	open	—	05-14 04:45
will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	2	$44	28	28	+0	open	—	07-02 20:56
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	4	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	06-17 03:30
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	2	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	07-08 02:11
bitcoin above 64k on july 6 2026	3	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	07-06 07:24
will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	2	$31	48	0	+48	open	—	06-18 10:26
will norway reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134501	4	$31	24	24	+0	open	—	07-01 00:22
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$31	37	0	+37	open	—	06-23 08:50
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$31	36	0	+36	open	—	06-18 06:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 18:37:18	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	SELL	93	100¢	$93	0x343ced…
08-06 13:47:56	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf79d87…
08-06 13:47:44	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x360f63…
08-06 11:41:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0x2abfd3…
08-06 09:26:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xfa975e…
08-06 08:57:45	btc updown 5m 1786006800	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4bdaac…
08-06 08:54:42	btc updown 5m 1786006500	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x24ce1d…
08-06 08:48:35	btc updown 5m 1786006200	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x54ee0f…
08-06 08:34:27	btc updown 5m 1786005300	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x87ef3b…
08-06 08:29:41	btc updown 5m 1786005000	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x35683a…
08-06 08:19:59	btc updown 5m 1786004400	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa4cd97…
08-06 08:15:02	btc updown 5m 1786004100	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe54406…
08-06 08:09:50	btc updown 5m 1786003800	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x16cdcc…
08-06 08:04:44	btc updown 5m 1786003500	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6f17f1…
08-06 07:59:32	btc updown 5m 1786003200	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x393d1e…
08-06 07:54:17	btc updown 5m 1786002900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x01b6be…
08-06 07:49:59	btc updown 5m 1786002600	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd71d48…
08-06 07:44:53	btc updown 5m 1786002300	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x464a20…
08-06 07:41:23	btc updown 5m 1786002000	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x28cd5b…
08-06 07:38:11	btc updown 5m 1786001700	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbe4fe5…
08-06 07:30:50	btc updown 5m 1786001400	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x755014…
08-06 06:56:27	btc updown 15m 1785998700	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe0c582…
08-06 06:37:30	btc updown 15m 1785997800	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x74ef26…
08-06 06:24:18	btc updown 15m 1785996900	Down	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xa9cef1…
08-06 06:20:36	btc updown 15m 1785996900	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x5469e8…
08-06 06:09:02	btc updown 15m 1785996000	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x2f6c46…
08-06 06:05:24	btc updown 15m 1785996000	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x25be9b…
08-06 05:52:29	btc updown 15m 1785995100	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x324b25…
08-06 05:41:02	btc updown 15m 1785994200	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xb3e7e8…
08-06 03:38:38	btc updown 15m 1785987000	Up	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x39491b…
08-06 03:33:32	btc updown 15m 1785987000	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xac6899…
08-06 03:32:14	btc updown 15m 1785987000	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x3e2a64…
08-05 12:07:12	btc updown 5m 1785931500	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5bd8f9…
08-05 12:05:24	btc updown 5m 1785931500	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x7861d8…
08-05 12:02:12	btc updown 5m 1785931200	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd01e8b…
08-05 11:57:21	btc updown 5m 1785930900	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf557cc…
08-05 11:51:29	btc updown 5m 1785930600	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x5382ab…
08-05 11:51:08	btc updown 5m 1785930600	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x38d12f…
08-05 08:22:27	btc updown 5m 1785918000	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xcbdd1a…
08-05 08:21:59	btc updown 5m 1785918000	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x12ec6e…
08-05 08:15:03	btc updown 5m 1785917700	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x3c5ead…
08-05 08:02:35	btc updown 5m 1785916800	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x23a130…
08-05 08:00:05	btc updown 5m 1785916800	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xcd8360…
08-05 07:56:11	btc updown 5m 1785916500	Down	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x2ae99e…
08-05 07:50:47	btc updown 5m 1785916200	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc47b7a…
08-05 07:49:56	btc updown 5m 1785916200	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xe7f304…
08-05 07:45:38	btc updown 5m 1785915900	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x2c504a…
08-05 07:10:03	btc updown 5m 1785913800	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8b8681…
08-05 07:05:20	btc updown 5m 1785913500	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xeb1abd…
08-05 07:05:20	btc updown 5m 1785913500	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9d2bcc…
08-05 07:03:33	btc updown 5m 1785913500	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x9935f5…
08-05 07:01:05	btc updown 5m 1785913200	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa857a4…
08-05 07:01:05	btc updown 5m 1785913200	Up	BUY	1	46¢	$1	0x1e9ac4…
08-05 07:01:03	btc updown 5m 1785913200	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb39e4e…
08-05 07:00:02	btc updown 5m 1785913200	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x728146…
08-05 06:55:47	btc updown 5m 1785912900	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa8d225…
08-05 06:55:06	btc updown 5m 1785912900	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x089130…
08-05 06:50:05	btc updown 5m 1785912600	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x11d5a3…
08-05 06:45:03	btc updown 5m 1785912300	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0b8ace…
08-05 06:38:56	btc updown 5m 1785911700	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x566588…
08-05 06:35:03	btc updown 5m 1785911700	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x889c89…
08-05 06:30:42	btc updown 5m 1785911400	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6f783d…
08-05 06:30:26	btc updown 5m 1785911400	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x13456a…
08-05 06:25:05	btc updown 5m 1785911100	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe04b5c…
08-05 06:24:15	btc updown 5m 1785911100	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x1fbf33…
08-05 06:21:11	btc updown 5m 1785910800	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe72455…
08-05 06:20:05	btc updown 5m 1785910800	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x250614…
08-05 06:16:56	btc updown 5m 1785910500	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x85a2c5…
08-05 06:15:26	btc updown 5m 1785910500	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x3f7843…
08-05 06:14:29	btc updown 5m 1785910200	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x894142…
08-05 06:10:09	btc updown 5m 1785910200	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xa1e965…
08-05 05:08:56	btc updown 5m 1785906300	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa0834a…
08-05 03:36:36	btc updown 5m 1785900900	Down	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x02e127…
08-05 03:36:35	btc updown 5m 1785900900	Down	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0xc1505f…
08-05 03:36:35	btc updown 5m 1785900900	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x634063…
08-05 03:31:09	btc updown 5m 1785900600	Down	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0xbbdfc8…
08-05 03:31:09	btc updown 5m 1785900600	Down	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x9bdd1c…
08-05 03:28:56	btc updown 5m 1785900300	Down	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x75c9a8…
08-05 03:28:56	btc updown 5m 1785900300	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x71608c…
08-05 03:28:54	btc updown 5m 1785900300	Down	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x7e9ce4…
08-05 03:27:57	btc updown 5m 1785900300	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3310fe…
08-05 03:23:24	btc updown 5m 1785900000	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4c5f86…
08-05 03:16:59	btc updown 5m 1785899700	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xd32add…
08-05 03:06:02	btc updown 5m 1785899100	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xc7e5ac…
08-05 03:06:02	btc updown 5m 1785899100	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6247b5…
08-05 03:00:14	btc updown 5m 1785898800	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xb31074…
08-05 02:56:36	btc updown 5m 1785898500	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x639a45…
08-05 02:50:11	btc updown 5m 1785898200	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfd5560…
08-05 02:50:11	btc updown 5m 1785898200	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb1d717…
08-05 02:50:08	btc updown 5m 1785898200	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xac1b09…
08-05 02:50:08	btc updown 5m 1785898200	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0x8e4e19…
08-05 02:45:48	btc updown 5m 1785897900	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1f05dd…
08-05 02:40:05	btc updown 5m 1785897600	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb5a27a…
08-05 01:19:17	btc updown 5m 1785892500	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd8950e…
08-05 00:37:33	btc updown 5m 1785890100	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1714e8…
08-04 13:44:21	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x1b3c05…
08-04 13:42:51	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x90f504…
08-04 13:33:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	84	30¢	$25	0x7f8f51…
08-03 05:47:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xe31d1f…
08-03 05:16:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x836bee…