Hard-Regret — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved

302

Trades

1,161

lifetime

Volume

$2.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-11 04:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 62% $-41

Politics

44% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$164	120	60	+60	open	—	05-26 12:45
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	9	$147	75	75	+0	open	—	06-11 04:01
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$126	63	76	-13	open	—	06-01 02:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$116	70	70	+0	open	—	05-14 04:07
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	12	$109	79	79	+0	open	—	05-14 06:17
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	2	$76	150	0	+150	open	—	06-11 01:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$70	40	40	+0	open	—	06-05 00:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$66	68	0	+68	open	—	05-22 03:10
will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	4	$61	73	0	+73	open	—	06-11 04:39
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	05-26 03:52
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	1	$47	0	47	-47	open	—	06-08 03:34
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	13	$47	60	60	+0	open	—	05-14 04:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-11 04:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$12	12	0	+12	Down	+$0	05-11 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	1	$9	10	0	+10	Up	+$1	05-07 05:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	10	$8	18	18	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 01:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 03:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	05-20 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	3	$7	5	5	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 04:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	2	$7	10	10	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 07:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	05-20 05:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	5	$7	7	5	+2	Up	+$2	05-11 11:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	2	$6	6	6	+0	Down	+$3	05-08 01:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	3	$6	14	10	+4	Down	+$4	05-11 03:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$6	8	0	+8	Down	+$2	05-11 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	5	$6	16	0	+16	open	—	05-19 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	3	$6	11	0	+11	Up	$-6	05-11 09:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$6	6	0	+6	Down	+$0	05-09 06:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	3	$6	5	5	+0	Down	$-2	05-11 06:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	05-21 05:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 04:39:00	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xead023…
06-11 04:38:52	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x8b4f12…
06-11 04:32:03	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	15	83¢	$13	0x110b1b…
06-11 04:24:45	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0x858af3…
06-11 04:01:52	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x3393e4…
06-11 01:57:15	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0xc4764c…
06-11 01:09:46	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xed0d16…
06-11 01:09:46	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	145	51¢	$74	0xc63643…
06-11 01:08:57	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x827f24…
06-11 01:08:33	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x26c795…
06-11 01:08:28	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x0bf3a3…
06-11 01:08:27	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x43d44b…
06-11 01:08:24	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9c41fe…
06-11 01:08:18	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3aec01…
06-11 01:08:16	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xe9aa41…
06-08 03:34:55	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	47	100¢	$47	0x775150…
06-05 00:14:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x983394…
06-03 10:03:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x665d8d…
06-01 02:03:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0x00728a…
05-27 12:21:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x93584a…
05-27 11:59:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xb09430…
05-27 08:05:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x36d8a8…
05-27 06:41:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xd1b7de…
05-26 12:45:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xe35809…
05-26 11:32:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xba433a…
05-26 07:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1149ce…
05-26 07:33:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9d7f18…
05-26 05:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xcc8fa8…
05-26 05:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x63c95f…
05-26 05:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x48c726…
05-26 05:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc68371…
05-26 04:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x13c36b…
05-26 04:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x73c858…
05-26 04:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x33fd25…
05-26 04:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x9d1c62…
05-26 04:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9beb33…
05-26 03:52:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa8859e…
05-26 03:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xc5bbdd…
05-26 03:03:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3cc728…
05-26 03:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0510e5…
05-26 03:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2654db…
05-26 03:02:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfa7f20…
05-26 02:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa876b3…
05-26 02:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x641606…
05-26 02:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2350ff…
05-26 02:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xac81f2…
05-26 02:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1effd0…
05-26 02:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x06272d…
05-26 02:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xa2dcc5…
05-26 02:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x6e4a47…
05-26 01:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xec1a03…
05-26 01:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x44ffd9…
05-26 01:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x725548…
05-26 01:19:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x37ff0f…
05-26 01:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x1f6d9b…
05-26 01:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfe90da…
05-26 01:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa2d4f2…
05-26 01:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x37d5d7…
05-26 00:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0x61e71c…
05-26 00:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8eea71…
05-26 00:34:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xcb5500…
05-26 00:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x883fa0…
05-26 00:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8bda09…
05-26 00:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x778a2c…
05-26 00:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x0d1055…
05-26 00:02:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xfd59b9…
05-25 23:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x9818cb…
05-25 23:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x29d14b…
05-25 23:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$2	0xdfad4d…
05-25 23:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x690506…
05-25 23:43:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x9a30f4…
05-25 23:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x8e01a9…
05-25 23:35:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x8f3a81…
05-25 13:15:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xab9a01…
05-25 12:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xe0a998…
05-25 12:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xbef477…
05-25 12:30:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf6b81b…
05-25 12:30:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x8f7a17…
05-25 12:30:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x496913…
05-25 12:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xdb6a62…
05-25 12:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xeea1dc…
05-25 12:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x5d3c7f…
05-25 12:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xbd6a58…
05-25 11:49:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xf4ac09…
05-25 11:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x5b784c…
05-25 11:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	87¢	$2	0x30422b…
05-25 11:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x5f2a27…
05-25 11:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x3b36ca…
05-25 11:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xeca33b…
05-25 11:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x095a1e…
05-25 10:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0xc8885c…
05-25 10:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0478f8…
05-25 10:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x02ded1…
05-25 09:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x068087…
05-25 09:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x52cb70…
05-25 09:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x2570e1…
05-25 09:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x6206a1…
05-25 07:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x56c405…
05-25 07:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xbf0d59…
05-25 07:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xb91aff…