Tired-Change — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

7.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

$26

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 09-03 19:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

74% 96% -$25

Sports

21% 0% —

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Politics

2% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+27	$26	99¢	$26	+$0	06-04 06:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	11	$920	740	740	+0	Up	-$26	03-04 11:12
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$273	45,433	45,433	+0	No	+$0	06-13 18:52
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$26	27	0	+27	open	—	06-04 06:44
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$1	01-08 10:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-08 10:44
will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-08 10:45
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	1	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	05-07 10:53
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	05-07 10:54
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	09-03 19:50
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-07 10:55
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-07 10:54
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-07 10:55
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 41°F or below on May 4?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-03 08:49
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-07 10:54
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	1	$3	3	0	+3	Yes	+$0	05-07 10:54
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-07 10:54
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	08-03 09:50
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	07-04 16:24
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 4?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:49
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 38°C or higher on May 4?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:49
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 3?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:46
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 3?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 4?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:48
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 3?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:48
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 3?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:46
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	01-08 10:45
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 4?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:49
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 4?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:49
Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 3?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:47
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 3?	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-03 08:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-03 19:50:54	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x03359c…
08-03 09:50:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x8ebe9b…
07-04 16:24:11	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8be2b8…
06-13 18:52:36	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	45,433	0¢	$136	0x71247d…
06-13 17:04:00	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	45,433	0¢	$136	0xb4cf79…
06-04 06:44:24	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x04c95b…
05-07 10:55:14	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x120b63…
05-07 10:55:05	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc21c25…
05-07 10:54:58	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf41cef…
05-07 10:54:28	Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xe18b76…
05-07 10:54:21	Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x34947c…
05-07 10:54:13	Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf606d8…
05-07 10:54:02	Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x1403b4…
05-07 10:53:55	Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x52012d…
05-03 08:49:36	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 4?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa23b08…
05-03 08:49:26	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 4?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x576f9c…
05-03 08:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 41°F or below on May 4?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfe18e1…
05-03 08:49:08	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 38°C or higher on May 4?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5c81dc…
05-03 08:49:04	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 4?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa60b6a…
05-03 08:48:56	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 4?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1efec6…
05-03 08:48:48	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 4?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2d5e41…
05-03 08:48:32	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb6aad9…
05-03 08:48:24	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 3?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6cd527…
05-03 08:47:04	Will XRP dip to $1.30 on May 3?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7b58ba…
05-03 08:46:56	Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x563b9e…
05-03 08:46:48	Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf49905…
05-03 08:46:36	Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9175b4…
05-03 08:46:30	Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x33427e…
03-04 11:12:33	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Up	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x726702…
03-04 11:11:27	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf0c5a0…
03-04 08:40:33	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	220	61¢	$134	0xb79371…
03-04 08:19:27	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	220	60¢	$132	0xc9a8c6…
03-04 08:16:57	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	71	60¢	$43	0x5664d4…
03-04 08:06:47	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	123	60¢	$74	0x2d1919…
03-04 08:06:29	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	83	60¢	$50	0xc5ee11…
03-04 08:06:11	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0xae8906…
03-04 07:55:17	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	293	56¢	$164	0x391346…
03-04 07:52:01	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	SELL	222	60¢	$133	0xcee0f9…
03-04 07:24:21	spx opens up or down on march 4 2026	Down	BUY	222	78¢	$173	0x9d7dba…
02-04 07:35:56	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 100 119	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa1487e…
02-04 07:35:42	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 80 99	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdc2c9f…
02-04 07:35:34	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 60 79	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d81b8…
02-04 07:35:28	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 40 59	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x171474…
02-04 07:35:14	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 0 19	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6454b1…
01-08 10:45:47	will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x887984…
01-08 10:45:35	will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x24aa1f…
01-08 10:45:27	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xd9143d…
01-08 10:44:59	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xffaa56…