Nervous-Proposition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

27.0%

Resolved

Trades

213

lifetime

Volume

$6.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-08 03:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

60% 50% +$37

Politics

24% 0% $-60

Crypto

16% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nothing ever happens january 581	20	$662	757	757	+0	open	—	01-15 23:33
grpn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt16	12	$658	452	452	+0	open	—	03-10 21:15
lyft quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt12	5	$344	200	200	+0	open	—	02-11 02:17
will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	3	$323	200	200	+0	open	—	04-13 02:08
Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?	7	$319	273	273	+0	open	—	03-17 17:35
will trump say hormuz this week march 22	11	$309	210	210	+0	open	—	03-16 16:18
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?	4	$300	200	200	+0	open	—	01-14 17:14
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by february 28	9	$269	396	421	-26	open	—	02-12 12:20
will the price of solana be between 140 150 on january 13	2	$248	200	200	+0	open	—	01-13 11:11
will trump say nasty this week january 25	7	$186	110	110	+0	open	—	01-20 19:44
earnings mentions google 2026 02 03 nano banana 1 times	5	$170	247	0	+247	open	—	01-21 04:19
azo quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 03 2026 27pt33	2	$168	290	0	+290	open	—	02-23 09:41
will luigi mangione smile during next court appearance	5	$160	97	105	-8	open	—	01-12 22:47
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	2	$141	140	140	+0	open	—	05-17 22:52
bird quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 neg2pt28	2	$135	200	5	+195	open	—	03-11 10:21
nothing ever happens january	1	$131	0	175	-175	open	—	01-02 10:28
will melania say child during ai talk on friday	6	$122	180	0	+180	open	—	01-16 14:42
will melania say family during ai talk on friday	3	$112	200	0	+200	open	—	01-16 17:12
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$106	182	2	+180	open	—	05-14 05:06
will trump say fuck or fucking or fucked in january	8	$102	200	200	+0	open	—	01-03 11:48
kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 0pt22	3	$101	195	0	+195	open	—	04-10 07:46
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be greater than 90m	1	$101	155	0	+155	open	—	04-07 02:47
chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 25 2026 0pt28	1	$100	250	0	+250	open	—	03-25 11:05
dal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 08 2026 0pt63	1	$98	161	0	+161	open	—	03-27 09:01
will trump say truth social in january	7	$96	190	0	+190	open	—	01-06 10:52
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	5	$86	179	0	+179	open	—	04-28 06:45
Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	8	$86	100	100	+0	No	$-5	05-09 10:25
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	7	$83	0	237	-237	open	—	05-31 19:39
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	1	$83	0	188	-188	open	—	07-08 03:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?	3	$81	130	0	+130	open	—	06-03 15:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 03:13:11	Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Yes	SELL	188	44¢	$83	0x68e352…
06-03 15:45:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	101	63¢	$63	0xce2243…
06-03 15:45:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x16df1d…
06-03 15:23:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	23	62¢	$14	0x61868e…
06-02 23:49:01	Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week?	No	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x62a1b9…
05-31 19:39:10	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0xcf0002…
05-31 11:15:52	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	37¢	$3	0xf9f08d…
05-31 11:15:52	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xd337c8…
05-31 07:48:46	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	38	35¢	$13	0x76dbc8…
05-31 07:12:32	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	83	35¢	$29	0x3cf56f…
05-31 07:12:25	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	34¢	$17	0xeb8065…
05-31 07:12:25	Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0x1e3e0f…
05-29 16:26:54	Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June?	No	BUY	90	53¢	$48	0x5d09e6…
05-27 16:23:45	Will Trump say "Ebola" or "COVID" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	98	57¢	$56	0x580a43…
05-27 10:28:26	Will Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x600481…
05-27 08:02:26	Will Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x09c8c7…
05-27 08:02:10	Will Trump say "Ebola" or "COVID" during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe91cdc…
05-26 03:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	496	1¢	$5	0x1ada6d…
05-22 20:16:42	Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xc5c45e…
05-22 20:06:06	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Pool" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x54c670…
05-22 19:53:01	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Pool" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x1c5aa3…
05-22 19:46:22	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Pool" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	48	48¢	$23	0x7af4cf…
05-22 19:34:03	Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Pool" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x446cc2…
05-22 18:36:48	Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	SELL	39	37¢	$14	0xd9c55a…
05-22 05:23:56	Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x66f008…
05-21 03:25:28	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during events in Rockland County?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc48d61…
05-20 16:20:12	Will Trump say "Cookie" this week?	Yes	SELL	1	56¢	$0	0x924291…
05-20 11:45:26	Will Trump say "ISIS" during Coast Guard event?	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0xa156d2…
05-20 10:46:03	Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	125	56¢	$70	0x1a2fdd…
05-19 18:54:06	Will Trump say "Cookie" this week?	Yes	SELL	33	56¢	$19	0xe70063…
05-18 17:46:51	Will Trump say "Cookie" this week?	Yes	BUY	19	55¢	$11	0x8f8fa7…
05-18 17:31:15	Will Trump say "Cookie" this week?	Yes	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x1abbd3…
05-17 22:52:29	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	140	56¢	$78	0x05b8ef…
05-17 04:50:18	Will Trump say "Kamala" this week?	No	BUY	32	53¢	$17	0x424b4c…
05-17 03:26:15	Will Trump say "Cookie" this week?	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0xdca551…
05-15 00:32:40	Will Trump say "Ping-pong" or "Ping Pong" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x60f16e…
05-14 05:06:04	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0xe00a6d…
05-14 03:19:10	Will Trump say "Ping-pong" or "Ping Pong" during Chinese State Banquet?	No	BUY	39	80¢	$31	0x79afc9…
05-12 07:00:45	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	331	14¢	$46	0xdd7667…
05-12 06:03:08	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0xc78a18…
05-12 03:52:44	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x566e27…
05-12 03:14:25	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xcd5026…
05-12 02:55:24	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4e7b67…
05-12 02:54:49	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xed7753…
05-12 00:02:28	Will "Right" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x8a5d45…
05-10 23:00:16	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	140	45¢	$63	0x6e8878…
05-10 20:43:18	Will Trump say "Asylum" this week?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x8b521d…
05-09 10:25:39	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	45	40¢	$18	0x321ad6…
05-09 04:59:15	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	28	40¢	$11	0x45fed4…
05-08 23:26:57	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x33ec99…
05-08 22:22:03	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0x32f715…
05-08 17:52:56	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x1b8527…
05-08 07:33:53	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xf1ff0d…
05-07 14:23:34	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0xf78f1e…
05-06 02:31:22	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x854c09…
05-05 19:46:08	Will Marco Rubio say "China" or "Xi" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x117527…
05-05 19:41:58	Will Marco Rubio say "China" or "Xi" during press briefing today?	Yes	BUY	95	55¢	$52	0x18882f…
05-05 06:07:02	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0e5929…
05-05 04:52:34	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	91	56¢	$51	0x52c69f…
05-05 04:37:42	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xe724fc…
05-05 04:37:36	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xbc32ed…
04-29 01:03:58	Will Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" in May?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x778d12…
04-28 06:45:36	Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xb4a16c…
04-27 18:35:38	Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xb6db9e…
04-27 15:34:00	Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	67	48¢	$32	0xe316e0…
04-27 15:17:20	Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x466050…
04-27 13:38:52	Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	96	48¢	$46	0x372e14…
04-17 11:03:18	tsco quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt35	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x045573…
04-13 02:08:53	will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x9fb178…
04-11 21:11:41	will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	BUY	155	62¢	$96	0x47bb1c…
04-11 21:11:25	will christine frechette be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	BUY	45	62¢	$28	0x0f56e9…
04-10 07:46:23	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 0pt22	Yes	BUY	174	52¢	$91	0x40336a…
04-07 17:25:55	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 0pt22	Yes	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0xf5a35d…
04-07 03:15:11	kmx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 0pt22	Yes	BUY	14	52¢	$7	0x270724…
04-07 02:47:33	will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be greater than 90m	Yes	BUY	155	65¢	$101	0x86c61a…
03-27 09:01:27	dal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 08 2026 0pt63	Yes	BUY	161	61¢	$98	0x4460cc…
03-25 11:05:05	chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 25 2026 0pt28	Yes	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0x76fb15…
03-17 17:35:03	Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?	Yes	SELL	170	56¢	$95	0xa16615…
03-17 16:58:43	Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?	Yes	SELL	89	56¢	$50	0x920925…
03-16 16:18:25	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	111	85¢	$94	0x32be39…
03-16 16:15:37	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x15d2dd…
03-16 15:55:55	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	18	85¢	$15	0x9aabc8…
03-16 15:46:55	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xe2ea73…
03-16 15:45:59	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x21320e…
03-16 15:38:33	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xe08e1d…
03-16 15:29:47	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xc68421…
03-16 15:09:17	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x4d665f…
03-16 15:00:49	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0x58eb16…
03-16 14:59:47	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	SELL	54	85¢	$46	0x3e0c3d…
03-14 16:53:41	will trump say hormuz this week march 22	Yes	BUY	210	62¢	$130	0x022776…
03-14 08:31:23	Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?	Yes	SELL	13	56¢	$7	0x0bf0cf…
03-11 10:21:39	bird quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 neg2pt28	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xc238ca…
03-10 21:15:53	grpn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt16	Yes	SELL	335	100¢	$334	0xc85903…
03-10 21:15:53	grpn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt16	Yes	SELL	117	100¢	$117	0x8841a2…
03-09 15:07:11	grpn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt16	Yes	BUY	196	32¢	$63	0xa2d837…
03-07 23:46:53	kss quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc83b5a…
03-07 22:34:23	kss quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7c3dfa…
03-07 15:08:39	kss quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x011a3c…
03-07 10:56:03	bird quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 neg2pt28	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x119430…
03-06 17:46:13	grpn quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 10 2026 0pt16	Yes	BUY	101	56¢	$56	0xd19b29…