Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.30K

Unrealized P&L

+$90

Hit rate

20.8%

Resolved

8,154

Trades

22,189

lifetime

Volume

$117.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$1.02K

30 positions

First seen

2026-06-15

last 11-04 19:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 134 days

Categories

Other

50% 24% -$1,494

Politics

29% 2% -$502

Crypto

12% 75% -$127

Tech

4% 9% -$114

Sports

3% 3% -$44

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 402 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+212	$161	93¢	$198	+$37	11-04 11:39
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	+156	$119	75¢	$117	-$3	11-04 13:59
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+73	$34	97¢	$71	+$36	10-30 05:42
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	+78	$52	75¢	$58	+$6	11-04 14:07
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	+60	$50	88¢	$53	+$3	11-04 09:53
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+50	$44	92¢	$46	+$2	11-04 09:40
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	+60	$45	74¢	$44	-$1	11-04 19:10
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	+156	$38	25¢	$39	+$1	11-04 13:59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+31	$12	98¢	$30	+$18	10-28 19:38
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	No	+25	$21	92¢	$23	+$2	10-08 23:19
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?	No	+28	$20	78¢	$22	+$2	11-02 12:52
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Yes	+20	$19	100¢	$20	+$0	11-04 05:49
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	+78	$27	25¢	$20	-$7	11-04 14:09
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	+20	$19	97¢	$19	+$0	10-29 17:55
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980	No	+20	$17	96¢	$19	+$3	07-27 15:17
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?	No	+20	$18	96¢	$19	+$1	08-31 01:26
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$17	92¢	$18	+$2	10-26 20:12
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No	+32	$15	57¢	$18	+$3	10-29 04:47
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	+20	$18	91¢	$18	+$0	11-03 22:07
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	No	+20	$13	89¢	$18	+$5	07-30 14:14
will alibaba be removed from chinese military companies list by june 30 2027 20260706223230551	No	+20	$12	83¢	$17	+$5	08-17 14:52
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	+20	$12	81¢	$16	+$4	08-12 00:27
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	+20	$16	80¢	$16	$0	11-03 17:04
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	+60	$16	26¢	$16	$0	11-03 16:21
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+19	$9	76¢	$15	+$5	10-23 06:39
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	+212	$52	7¢	$14	-$38	11-04 11:39
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$12	70¢	$14	+$2	11-04 07:53
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	+20	$11	70¢	$14	+$3	10-29 17:06
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	+32	$17	42¢	$14	-$3	10-29 04:47
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Yes	+15	$11	88¢	$13	+$2	11-04 13:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	146	$1.2K	1,422	1,068	+354	No	-$8	07-30 20:21
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	117	$851	935	863	+73	No	-$15	07-27 07:18
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	28	$387	595	172	+424	open	—	11-04 11:39
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	24	$382	567	69	+498	Yes	$0	11-04 05:46
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?	23	$265	248	227	+20	open	—	10-25 17:40
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	20	$262	269	249	+20	open	—	11-01 16:42
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	12	$246	210	210	+0	Yes	-$8	10-06 07:46
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	15	$232	250	250	+0	open	—	10-02 12:19
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	25	$219	224	224	+0	open	—	10-30 08:50
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	26	$213	376	65	+311	open	—	11-04 13:59
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	13	$210	200	200	+0	open	—	09-20 03:26
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?	21	$199	222	182	+39	open	—	10-31 17:44
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	6	$199	150	150	+0	No	$0	11-04 05:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 11:05 UTC	6	$193	175	40	+135	Up	-$117	06-23 11:10
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?	19	$193	135	116	+19	open	—	09-29 05:03
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	22	$191	242	127	+115	open	—	10-30 04:29
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	10	$190	194	194	+0	open	—	11-04 10:22
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	17	$180	178	138	+40	open	—	10-22 03:41
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026?	15	$176	180	140	+40	open	—	11-01 15:41
Will no Israeli government be formed after the 2026 Knesset election?	23	$176	301	49	+252	open	—	11-02 16:49
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	16	$176	158	158	+0	open	—	10-06 03:06
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	14	$174	200	100	+100	open	—	11-04 13:11
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	10	$173	166	166	+0	open	—	09-28 20:09
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	12	$170	185	185	+0	Yes	-$2	09-14 23:37
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	19	$167	188	148	+40	No	-$6	08-25 12:27
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	18	$164	250	99	+151	open	—	11-04 09:47
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 9%-12%?	13	$162	140	100	+40	open	—	10-22 19:43
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	13	$161	160	160	+0	open	—	10-13 19:06
Will Sílvia Cristina win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	22	$159	155	155	+0	No	-$6	09-12 20:17
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	9	$158	147	147	+0	open	—	10-02 13:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 20:44:24	Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by January 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x740b2f…
11-04 20:43:37	Will Bayern Munich finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x5d6862…
11-04 20:43:22	Will One Nation win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x067692…
11-04 20:42:48	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $168B by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x640f1a…
11-04 20:11:16	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0xec8b24…
11-04 20:11:16	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x775bc9…
11-04 20:11:16	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0x6cc44e…
11-04 20:11:16	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0x090890…
11-04 19:22:39	Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0xa88f60…
11-04 19:22:33	Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0xb1cc48…
11-04 19:22:31	Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x1e956f…
11-04 19:22:01	Will the Republicans win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x747573…
11-04 19:11:30	Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x05e9a1…
11-04 19:10:55	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x501911…
11-04 19:10:48	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nuevo León Congress election?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xa4eb20…
11-04 17:43:01	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x9d4fd1…
11-04 17:40:10	White House press briefing room decommissioned by March 31?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x07f68e…
11-04 17:37:58	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x2dc118…
11-04 17:37:46	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xa26e69…
11-04 17:37:34	Will AlloX launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xcec46b…
11-04 17:35:52	Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x11d806…
11-04 17:35:36	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0xc1b2b0…
11-04 17:33:30	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x3b3585…
11-04 17:33:30	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x1e8720…
11-04 17:32:24	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	44¢	$0	0x925b11…
11-04 17:30:34	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x80fa8c…
11-04 17:30:34	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x02d857…
11-04 17:21:40	Will Dak Prescott have 3,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x9507db…
11-04 16:47:00	Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x318114…
11-04 16:47:00	Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x01b882…
11-04 16:35:07	Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xab61d8…
11-04 16:28:45	Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x6e34d4…
11-04 16:11:54	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xc367f3…
11-04 16:08:34	Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0xf5f0f9…
11-04 15:56:15	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x9721a6…
11-04 15:54:34	Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x5038d4…
11-04 15:54:34	Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x1c2997…
11-04 15:52:34	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0xd82ba6…
11-04 15:52:22	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x559f86…
11-04 15:45:15	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xe9a007…
11-04 15:45:15	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xa7a912…
11-04 15:44:07	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xadb7b3…
11-04 15:41:27	Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xe23393…
11-04 15:20:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa86ba7…
11-04 15:20:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x121a30…
11-04 15:16:34	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Nuevo León Congress election?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x366638…
11-04 15:09:33	Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe82573…
11-04 15:09:16	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$2	0x5b27c0…
11-04 15:09:16	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x00be18…
11-04 15:01:48	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $168B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x3149a4…
11-04 14:59:06	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x6cc61d…
11-04 14:31:07	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xd3e7af…
11-04 14:25:40	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xc584df…
11-04 14:21:49	Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x0f4dd5…
11-04 14:09:06	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xf665a9…
11-04 14:07:30	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x59de8f…
11-04 14:07:03	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	18	80¢	$14	0x659fa3…
11-04 14:07:03	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0x4c9591…
11-04 14:04:21	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x299b6b…
11-04 14:04:19	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x24068f…
11-04 14:01:31	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x799920…
11-04 14:00:40	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x57c9cf…
11-04 14:00:39	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x091ffe…
11-04 14:00:37	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xb912b1…
11-04 13:59:51	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xfd3ee2…
11-04 13:59:09	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xe257dd…
11-04 13:59:06	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0xff96f2…
11-04 13:59:06	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	16	78¢	$12	0xb439e6…
11-04 13:58:28	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0xafbdd4…
11-04 13:41:06	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xef6a9e…
11-04 13:41:06	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x630cd2…
11-04 13:16:31	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x8872f6…
11-04 13:11:36	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0xa4a1ac…
11-04 13:11:33	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x21efbf…
11-04 13:10:42	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc24ead…
11-04 13:10:25	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x703137…
11-04 13:10:24	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x1ff612…
11-04 13:09:40	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x0a1aef…
11-04 13:09:34	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xd68453…
11-04 13:09:31	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xa0e902…
11-04 13:09:30	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x090e21…
11-04 13:07:51	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xdeeab5…
11-04 13:07:51	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xaf64b5…
11-04 13:00:04	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xa9f84e…
11-04 13:00:04	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x0fab6f…
11-04 12:59:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-14 House election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x8c9a63…
11-04 12:42:09	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xac665f…
11-04 12:35:54	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x582cd7…
11-04 12:13:22	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0xd47bfd…
11-04 11:59:31	Will Katherine Clark be the next House Majority Leader?	No	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x6094f1…
11-04 11:59:25	Will Katherine Clark be the next House Majority Leader?	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x0f5e5e…
11-04 11:54:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xb83a9b…
11-04 11:54:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x35634c…
11-04 11:39:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x53bfd5…
11-04 11:39:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x05d46a…
11-04 11:38:36	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8c5eab…
11-04 11:38:36	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x2158d2…
11-04 11:35:28	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x6882e2…
11-04 11:35:28	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x30f952…
11-04 11:34:27	Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x29f89e…