Tired-Awareness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$172

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

395

lifetime

Volume

$69.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$177

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 07-20 14:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 100% +$172

Other

37% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by June 30?	12	$7.3K	4,599	2,767	+1,832	open	—	06-28 17:54
cbb stlou mich 2026 03 21	19	$5.9K	4,577	3,040	+1,536	open	—	03-20 10:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	43	$4.6K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	04-07 22:37
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	20	$3.3K	1,581	2,200	-619	open	—	03-23 12:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$3.1K	2,619	1,500	+1,119	open	—	05-25 19:13
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	23	$2.8K	2,200	1,356	+844	open	—	04-08 15:35
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	1	$2.6K	2,682	0	+2,682	open	—	07-13 12:18
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	04-01 09:00
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	11	$2.1K	1,200	1,388	-188	open	—	04-07 21:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	2	$1.9K	980	980	+0	open	—	04-24 11:28
will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	1	$1.9K	1,880	0	+1,880	open	—	03-19 02:09
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	6	$1.9K	1,942	222	+1,720	open	—	05-27 11:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	2	$1.8K	900	900	+0	open	—	04-23 12:45
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$1.7K	870	870	+0	open	—	05-22 18:05
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21	43	$1.7K	2,000	1,353	+647	open	—	03-21 03:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$1.4K	1,393	0	+1,393	open	—	03-17 18:07
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	9	$1.4K	700	700	+0	open	—	05-14 06:28
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21	4	$1.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-21 15:27
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$1.2K	710	710	+0	open	—	03-23 11:18
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	7	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-02 20:22
cbb vand nebr 2026 03 21	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 18:33
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$1.1K	1,140	0	+1,140	open	—	06-28 13:08
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	13	$994	700	700	+0	open	—	03-31 01:35
cbb txam hou 2026 03 21	2	$820	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-20 07:33
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	2	$786	790	0	+790	open	—	06-10 18:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	10	$783	790	0	+790	open	—	06-07 06:35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	6	$730	571	571	+0	No	+$82	04-24 18:42
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	15	$720	600	357	+243	open	—	04-04 11:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$709	400	400	+0	open	—	05-25 15:37
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	8	$628	400	258	+142	open	—	04-28 19:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 14:57:10	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by july 31 2026 20260709234123316	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xcd5b93…
07-13 12:18:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,682	97¢	$2,612	0x0dbc9c…
07-11 20:40:13	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x1e93f7…
06-28 17:54:11	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xd8e103…
06-28 17:16:53	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd00a2d…
06-28 17:14:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1,667	100¢	$1,662	0xd2e1ae…
06-28 13:08:44	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	901	98¢	$887	0xd88866…
06-28 08:58:10	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xcdc967…
06-27 22:20:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	761	100¢	$759	0x84976d…
06-27 22:01:47	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xa49b2c…
06-27 15:50:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6925ea…
06-27 15:20:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x536de5…
06-27 15:10:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x504a2b…
06-27 14:58:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xabe07b…
06-27 14:37:59	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1,743	100¢	$1,739	0x99b748…
06-24 08:02:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2,367	99¢	$2,346	0x8539f2…
06-23 11:22:32	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	491	100¢	$489	0xebdab1…
06-23 11:16:43	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe96e39…
06-17 05:59:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$173	0x121f5b…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd18ac4…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xc770e4…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xb67dfe…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x943f13…
06-10 18:35:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	BUY	290	100¢	$289	0xb1d50b…
06-10 17:49:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xa97c15…
06-07 06:35:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	No	BUY	590	100¢	$589	0x640bfa…
06-02 22:24:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x68a160…
06-02 20:49:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x58a95e…
06-02 20:36:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb5398a…
06-02 20:25:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x1288aa…
06-02 20:09:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc17682…
06-02 19:51:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe171d6…
06-02 19:40:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x95084a…
06-02 19:37:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x074645…
06-02 19:04:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x7344da…
06-02 18:57:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x859031…
06-02 18:55:54	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x316a8b…
06-02 18:50:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6401b4…
06-02 18:34:22	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x3708e1…
06-02 18:32:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0x0a4ee1…
06-02 18:31:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$272	0x2b000e…
06-02 18:26:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x5ee7b1…
06-02 18:26:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x1a6848…
06-02 18:26:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x099c7b…
06-02 18:26:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf1b18d…
06-02 18:26:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x483591…
06-02 18:21:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xed2def…
06-02 18:21:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	27	97¢	$27	0x4ae845…
06-02 18:15:18	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xe2dfb8…
05-30 18:59:28	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xbc5a87…
05-30 14:46:25	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xd672e6…
05-27 11:37:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	402	100¢	$400	0x80d39c…
05-25 19:13:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	619	87¢	$537	0xdc2b1b…
05-25 15:37:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	400	86¢	$346	0x0f135d…
05-25 15:16:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	168	91¢	$153	0x52a495…
05-25 15:04:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	232	91¢	$211	0xcd84b8…
05-25 09:42:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	308	94¢	$290	0x482e72…
05-25 09:30:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc33e05…
05-25 09:27:59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	87	94¢	$82	0x24313f…
05-24 11:20:26	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x2bd200…
05-23 21:25:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	1,000	76¢	$760	0x6f3f6f…
05-23 21:19:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	97	72¢	$70	0xbf0298…
05-23 21:04:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	154	72¢	$111	0xda6e6c…
05-23 21:04:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	160	72¢	$115	0xad9d95…
05-23 21:04:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	89	72¢	$64	0xa66321…
05-23 12:05:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	340	75¢	$255	0x477f91…
05-23 04:39:23	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	222	86¢	$191	0x5bea67…
05-22 18:16:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	978	84¢	$822	0x38e450…
05-22 18:09:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	188	84¢	$158	0xc6fa08…
05-22 18:08:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	34	84¢	$29	0x9487ba…
05-22 18:05:39	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	870	100¢	$869	0xc6c86e…
05-16 09:16:26	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	788	96¢	$759	0xef0fe5…
05-16 09:14:01	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	82	96¢	$79	0xa7d781…
05-15 20:54:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xe1ea08…
05-14 10:36:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0xd45233…
05-14 07:20:42	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0xb53a11…
05-14 06:28:19	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	513	99¢	$509	0x1875ed…
05-10 20:32:20	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x2f9e8e…
05-09 16:08:11	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$193	0x8b580a…
05-09 15:04:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	1,800	71¢	$1,278	0x34e4ad…
05-09 12:23:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0xdfd920…
05-09 12:13:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0x4d190a…
05-08 15:28:07	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x1d523a…
05-08 13:31:42	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0x2e7ce7…
05-07 21:18:49	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	94¢	$141	0x92184f…
05-07 19:25:55	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	362	96¢	$348	0x31257b…
05-07 19:25:32	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0xf1f421…
05-06 10:11:22	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x46aa35…
05-04 17:05:48	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x46174c…
05-04 15:07:38	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0xbdded7…
05-03 21:30:06	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x15de96…
05-03 18:44:00	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	98¢	$137	0x0b2eaa…
05-03 15:54:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x60ba76…
05-03 15:50:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x448022…
05-03 15:47:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$75	0xca5dab…
05-03 15:44:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	76	94¢	$72	0x1b5f9d…
05-03 00:08:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	600	85¢	$510	0x99b46b…
05-02 23:11:10	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	397	93¢	$369	0x1e6a8e…
05-02 21:29:06	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xae7a5f…
05-02 20:22:14	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	159	98¢	$156	0x89aa65…