Tired-Awareness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$958

Unrealized P&L

+$44

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

Trades

457

lifetime

Volume

$86.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$188

Open exposure

$576

1 position

First seen

2026-03-17

last 08-26 23:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

54% 76% +$612

Other

43% 68% +$264

Sports

2% 100% +$36

Tech

1% 100% +$46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		+600	$532	96¢	$576	+$44	08-03 15:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran leadership change by June 30?	12	$7.3K	4,599	2,767	+1,832	No	+$41	06-28 17:54
cbb stlou mich 2026 03 21	19	$5.9K	4,577	3,040	+1,536	Michigan Wolverines	-$60	03-20 10:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	43	$4.6K	2,400	2,400	+0	No	+$5	04-07 22:37
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	4	$3.4K	3,479	0	+3,479	No	+$72	07-31 13:56
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	20	$3.3K	1,581	2,200	-619	No	-$54	03-23 12:09
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$3.1K	2,619	1,500	+1,119	No	+$298	05-25 19:13
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	23	$2.8K	2,200	1,356	+844	No	+$156	04-08 15:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	15	$2.8K	2,841	0	+2,841	Yes	+$37	06-17 05:59
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$18	04-01 09:00
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	11	$2.1K	1,200	1,388	-188	No	+$0	04-07 21:02
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2.1K	2,100	0	+2,100	No	+$36	07-11 21:38
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	4	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$50	08-04 16:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	2	$1.9K	980	980	+0	No	-$8	04-24 11:28
will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	1	$1.9K	1,880	0	+1,880	No	+$4	03-19 02:09
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	6	$1.9K	1,942	222	+1,720	Yes	+$248	05-27 11:37
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	2	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$1	04-23 12:45
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	6	$1.7K	1,827	0	+1,827	No	+$91	06-27 15:45
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$1.7K	870	870	+0	No	+$31	05-22 18:05
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21	43	$1.7K	2,000	1,353	+647	Arkansas Razorbacks	-$3	03-21 03:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$1.4K	1,393	0	+1,393	Yes	+$7	03-17 18:07
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	9	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$18	05-14 06:28
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21	4	$1.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	Michigan State Spartans	-$20	03-21 15:27
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$1.2K	710	710	+0	No	+$7	03-23 11:18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$2	08-05 15:21
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	7	$1.2K	600	600	+0	No	+$7	05-02 20:22
cbb vand nebr 2026 03 21	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-$40	03-20 18:33
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$1.1K	1,140	0	+1,140	No	+$42	06-28 13:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	1	$1.1K	1,093	0	+1,093	Yes	+$20	08-26 23:01
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	13	$994	700	700	+0	No	+$14	03-31 01:35
will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	3	$905	931	0	+931	No	+$26	08-06 14:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 23:01:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	1,093	98¢	$1,073	0xc0e8ce…
08-06 14:37:42	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x366be4…
08-06 14:16:00	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	891	97¢	$866	0x14629f…
08-05 15:21:03	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	600	99¢	$592	0x1d6642…
08-05 12:15:57	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xfd36ce…
08-05 07:27:20	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x7bd050…
08-05 07:27:14	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x8dd7fd…
08-05 07:26:29	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xdf5591…
08-04 18:47:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	600	98¢	$589	0x52adc1…
08-04 17:17:12	Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0xa48068…
08-04 16:32:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	600	97¢	$584	0x8b849d…
08-04 14:45:38	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	400	97¢	$390	0xecf31d…
08-04 02:48:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	400	98¢	$391	0xefcf00…
08-03 15:32:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$35	0xbb5a48…
08-03 15:32:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	375	89¢	$333	0x724908…
08-03 15:32:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	89¢	$61	0x012bd3…
08-03 15:24:15	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x027fe7…
08-03 15:22:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	89¢	$59	0x97492b…
07-31 13:56:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	677	100¢	$677	0xa2e796…
07-31 13:55:47	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by july 31 2026 20260709234123316	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x58fe5d…
07-31 12:51:11	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by july 31 2026 20260709234123316	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4ad1be…
07-29 22:17:05	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	SELL	400	97¢	$387	0x906a5a…
07-21 14:07:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x8253a1…
07-21 14:04:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	BUY	67	98¢	$66	0x8f6a5c…
07-20 14:57:10	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by july 31 2026 20260709234123316	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xcd5b93…
07-20 11:22:06	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xcd4ee0…
07-13 12:18:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,682	97¢	$2,612	0x0dbc9c…
07-12 17:26:17	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x3a253b…
07-12 02:18:29	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0x4e0e20…
07-11 21:38:56	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2,100	98¢	$2,064	0x7f6800…
07-11 20:40:13	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x1e93f7…
06-28 17:54:11	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xd8e103…
06-28 17:16:53	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd00a2d…
06-28 17:14:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1,667	100¢	$1,662	0xd2e1ae…
06-28 13:08:44	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	901	98¢	$887	0xd88866…
06-28 08:58:10	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xcdc967…
06-27 22:20:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	761	100¢	$759	0x84976d…
06-27 22:01:47	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xa49b2c…
06-27 15:50:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6925ea…
06-27 15:45:25	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	1,348	95¢	$1,281	0x4915b4…
06-27 15:45:04	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	97	95¢	$92	0xec4a2a…
06-27 15:44:02	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x320de1…
06-27 15:43:43	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x9c6502…
06-27 15:43:35	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x6b7fdc…
06-27 15:43:29	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	224	95¢	$212	0xbb1e03…
06-27 15:20:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x536de5…
06-27 15:10:05	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x504a2b…
06-27 14:58:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xabe07b…
06-27 14:37:59	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	1,743	100¢	$1,739	0x99b748…
06-24 08:02:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2,367	99¢	$2,346	0x8539f2…
06-23 11:22:32	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	491	100¢	$489	0xebdab1…
06-23 11:16:43	us iran final nuclear deal by june 30 2026 20260621201255150	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xe96e39…
06-17 05:59:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	173	100¢	$172	0xe9ec6c…
06-17 05:59:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$173	0x121f5b…
06-16 12:25:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	979	99¢	$974	0xfba100…
06-15 18:52:01	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	859	100¢	$857	0x0f3194…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd18ac4…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xc770e4…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xb67dfe…
06-13 07:32:01	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x943f13…
06-10 18:35:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	BUY	290	100¢	$289	0xb1d50b…
06-10 17:49:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 10 2026	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xa97c15…
06-07 06:35:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	No	BUY	590	100¢	$589	0x640bfa…
06-07 06:00:45	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x655835…
06-03 23:53:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x9914bb…
06-02 22:24:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x68a160…
06-02 21:56:09	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	110	88¢	$96	0xa07b9c…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0xc0de30…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x92a7c5…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x921bbd…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x8a7c0e…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x76e038…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x4cc61a…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x3bd2e0…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x2f341d…
06-02 21:31:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x11849d…
06-02 21:31:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	776	98¢	$761	0xe84e85…
06-02 21:31:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xbd484e…
06-02 20:49:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x58a95e…
06-02 20:36:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb5398a…
06-02 20:25:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x1288aa…
06-02 20:09:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc17682…
06-02 19:51:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe171d6…
06-02 19:40:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x95084a…
06-02 19:37:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0x074645…
06-02 19:04:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x7344da…
06-02 18:57:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x859031…
06-02 18:55:54	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x316a8b…
06-02 18:50:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x6401b4…
06-02 18:34:22	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x3708e1…
06-02 18:32:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0x0a4ee1…
06-02 18:31:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$272	0x2b000e…
06-02 18:26:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x5ee7b1…
06-02 18:26:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x1a6848…
06-02 18:26:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x099c7b…
06-02 18:26:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf1b18d…
06-02 18:26:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x483591…
06-02 18:21:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xed2def…
06-02 18:21:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	27	97¢	$27	0x4ae845…
06-02 18:15:18	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xe2dfb8…