Realized P&L
-$17
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
82.2%
Resolved
470
Trades
723
lifetime
Volume
$1.04K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$47
29 positions
First seen
2026-07-25
last 10-26 19:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 75 days
Categories
Other
81% 85% -$16
Politics
15% 77% +$3
Tech
3% 67% -$4
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +4 $4 100¢ $4 +$0 09-16 20:06
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +4 $4 99¢ $4 +$0 09-05 21:48
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? No +4 $3 94¢ $4 +$1 09-30 18:42
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +5 $3 70¢ $3 +$0 09-01 18:04
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +3 $3 100¢ $3 $0 10-26 19:39
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +8 $1 32¢ $3 +$1 07-25 08:53
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +2 $1 98¢ $2 +$1 08-01 15:34
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No +2 $2 79¢ $2 $0 10-26 03:39
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +2 $1 84¢ $2 +$0 09-22 17:00
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +2 $1 68¢ $2 +$0 08-01 21:25
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +2 $1 68¢ $1 +$0 08-07 23:54
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1 $1 91¢ $1 +$0 10-05 21:44
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 08-06 23:33
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 09-02 00:28
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 07-31 06:00
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 $0 09-02 05:35
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 $0 08-06 23:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 $0 09-30 18:32
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 $0 10-10 15:35
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +2 $1 56¢ $1 $0 07-31 06:00
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No +1 $1 80¢ $1 $0 09-22 22:32
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +1 $1 76¢ $1 $0 08-02 06:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +4 $1 25¢ $1 $0 10-13 18:06
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +1 $1 69¢ $1 $0 08-16 00:47
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +2 $1 62¢ $1 $0 09-17 11:14
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +3 $1 32¢ $1 $0 08-08 00:09
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +2 $1 38¢ $1 $0 08-01 04:50
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? No +1 $1 33¢ $0 -$1 10-06 18:10
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No +2 $1 20¢ $0 -$1 08-04 16:13