Stained-Efficiency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$221

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.8%

Resolved

125

Trades

195

lifetime

Volume

$7.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-16 16:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

46% 16% -$234

Crypto

35% 13% +$144

Politics

17% 10% -$135

Sports

2% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 70k on february 9	7	$1.2K	1,744	1,744	+0	Yes	+$1,024	02-09 16:46
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$969	490	490	+0	No	+$5	01-30 11:51
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$927	742	742	+0	Yes	+$37	01-30 00:14
will the government shutdown last 10 days or more 772 652	2	$923	514	514	+0	No	+$23	01-31 11:49
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	2	$402	400	400	+0	No	+$2	07-04 00:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$286	3,416	1,382	+2,035	No	-$23	06-28 20:54
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	4	$211	517	517	+0	Yes	+$149	07-03 23:37
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	4	$202	556	556	+0	No	+$2	02-03 17:35
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	2	$197	924	924	+0	No	-$3	06-17 22:32
bitcoin above 78k on april 22	1	$150	1,517	0	+1,517	Yes	-$150	04-22 14:09
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$125	462	462	+0	Yes	+$5	07-06 22:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$106	12,521	0	+12,521	No	-$106	06-02 13:02
bitcoin above 68k on february 11	5	$101	198	136	+63	No	+$11	02-11 14:48
will there be 1820 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$81	104	104	+0	Yes	+$65	02-24 02:30
bitcoin above 66k on february 11	4	$69	109	104	+4	Yes	+$19	02-11 16:59
bitcoin above 90k on january 8	3	$67	107	53	+55	Yes	+$15	01-08 15:59
bitcoin above 88k on january 3	7	$62	1,079	173	+906	Yes	+$10	01-03 09:37
bitcoin above 90k on january 3	5	$62	49	49	+0	Yes	+$22	01-03 08:59
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	1	$57	4,078	0	+4,078	No	-$57	07-01 22:54
bitcoin up or down january 16 11am et	1	$56	240	0	+240	Up	-$56	01-16 16:35
bitcoin above 68k on february 18	1	$50	1,293	0	+1,293	No	-$50	02-18 16:13
bitcoin above 66k on february 18	1	$50	1,046	0	+1,046	Yes	-$50	02-18 16:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$48	397	0	+397	No	-$48	09-16 16:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$40	4,444	0	+4,444	No	-$40	09-16 16:13
us government funding lapse on january 31	1	$37	2,173	0	+2,173	Yes	-$37	01-30 16:59
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$35	2,552	0	+2,552	No	-$35	02-14 23:00
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$34	20,075	0	+20,075	No	-$34	01-28 14:07
bitcoin above 60k on march 3	1	$34	1,221	0	+1,221	Yes	-$34	03-02 13:52
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$32	31,000	0	+31,000	Yes	-$32	03-03 16:37
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	1	$30	530	0	+530	Yes	-$30	06-30 13:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 16:44:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	397	12¢	$48	0x57f742…
09-16 16:13:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,444	1¢	$40	0xa54956…
09-16 16:09:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x871965…
07-13 14:32:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$20	0x82f913…
07-09 12:32:59	bitcoin above 64k on july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	152	5¢	$7	0x540ca9…
07-09 12:32:32	bitcoin above 58k on july 9 2026	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xc9eadf…
07-09 12:32:26	bitcoin above 60k on july 9 2026	No	BUY	1,669	1¢	$15	0x754a47…
07-09 12:32:08	bitcoin above 62k on july 9 2026	No	BUY	181	14¢	$25	0xf81b61…
07-09 12:32:01	bitcoin above 64k on july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	70	5¢	$3	0x80c000…
07-08 19:04:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	86	23¢	$20	0x80e4c5…
07-06 22:48:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	462	14¢	$65	0xe9dd0b…
07-06 22:04:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	462	13¢	$60	0xceb629…
07-06 00:25:16	england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x727cb4…
07-04 00:20:07	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	Yes	SELL	400	50¢	$202	0xcc647c…
07-04 00:18:20	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0xd42a31…
07-03 23:54:16	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x86500c…
07-03 23:37:13	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	113	42¢	$47	0x373bf4…
07-03 23:26:40	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	306	33¢	$101	0x7a7c2c…
07-03 23:25:14	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	98	32¢	$31	0x77a0aa…
07-03 22:53:28	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	517	6¢	$31	0x96a542…
07-03 20:19:34	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	SELL	560	2¢	$12	0xd22b3d…
07-03 19:35:53	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	560	2¢	$14	0x6dd51e…
07-01 22:54:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4,078	1¢	$57	0x1aac20…
07-01 16:00:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	1,017	3¢	$30	0x0b0bc3…
06-30 13:22:41	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	530	6¢	$30	0xca7533…
06-30 10:57:34	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$20	0x28860d…
06-28 20:54:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$10	0x9228e2…
06-27 17:28:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	509	3¢	$15	0x4e7cbc…
06-27 10:36:13	will trump say mutilation during faith freedom coalition conference 20260626142533762	Yes	BUY	30,000	0¢	$30	0x32d21b…
06-26 21:53:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	285	5¢	$14	0x8b0530…
06-26 11:22:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,097	11¢	$117	0x82a6bb…
06-23 11:46:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,193	4¢	$50	0xfb9735…
06-19 16:04:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x864698…
06-19 14:01:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0x86a957…
06-17 22:32:58	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	924	10¢	$97	0xc3db8c…
06-17 22:27:17	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	7,500	0¢	$15	0x8140af…
06-17 22:20:40	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	924	11¢	$100	0xe8e59b…
06-17 22:18:44	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0xc168a8…
06-17 17:50:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-17 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	12	48¢	$6	0xf55d11…
06-17 17:50:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-17 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x1ca803…
06-17 17:43:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xaabd75…
06-17 17:43:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x4ffa41…
06-17 17:43:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,400	0¢	$10	0xe626b0…
06-17 17:43:14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,333	0¢	$10	0x08668b…
06-02 13:02:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,396	1¢	$49	0xd4b121…
06-02 12:58:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,125	1¢	$57	0xbe8ea2…
04-22 14:09:20	bitcoin above 78k on april 22	No	BUY	1,517	10¢	$150	0xed7fa2…
04-09 12:47:11	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	Yes	BUY	3,219	1¢	$25	0x14975d…
04-09 12:46:49	bitcoin above 74k on april 9	Yes	BUY	3,928	1¢	$25	0xa1423a…
04-09 12:46:39	bitcoin above 76k on april 9	Yes	BUY	20,211	0¢	$25	0xb376c8…
04-06 19:49:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	625	4¢	$25	0x5049fc…
04-06 13:25:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,083	1¢	$25	0xa0a9d6…
04-06 13:25:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,571	1¢	$25	0x1600a2…
03-16 14:04:27	bitcoin above 78k on march 16	Yes	BUY	20,057	0¢	$25	0x00d4f9…
03-03 16:37:29	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	30,000	0¢	$30	0x670197…
03-02 13:52:49	bitcoin above 60k on march 3	No	BUY	1,221	3¢	$34	0x3c0f36…
03-02 13:51:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x2556e1…
03-02 13:50:23	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x354a9d…
03-01 06:58:29	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xaf738b…
02-24 12:51:42	will there be 1416 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	175	1¢	$1	0x1a4783…
02-24 12:51:38	will there be 1618 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xbdc7ab…
02-24 12:51:24	will there be 1012 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	808	0¢	$1	0x7a3068…
02-24 09:11:02	bitcoin above 60k on february 24	No	BUY	350	2¢	$8	0x7955d6…
02-24 09:10:50	bitcoin above 58k on february 24	No	BUY	496	1¢	$5	0xc84487…
02-24 09:10:14	bitcoin above 66k on february 24	Yes	BUY	258	3¢	$8	0x513b6d…
02-24 09:10:04	bitcoin above 68k on february 24	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x30667d…
02-24 02:30:06	will there be 1820 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	SELL	104	70¢	$73	0x9ccb3d…
02-23 19:39:36	will there be 1820 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	104	8¢	$8	0xf0ef93…
02-23 19:38:58	will there be 810 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	632	0¢	$1	0x84fa6e…
02-23 19:38:54	will there be 1012 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	652	0¢	$1	0xd6a6b8…
02-23 19:38:50	will there be 1214 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	901	0¢	$2	0xb7f494…
02-23 19:38:42	will there be 1618 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x964ae6…
02-23 15:01:06	will there be 1416 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	Yes	BUY	521	1¢	$5	0x6dcaf6…
02-20 16:48:12	the bondi parlay feb 20	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0x0eb0cb…
02-20 15:11:16	bitcoin above 64k on february 20	No	BUY	769	1¢	$10	0x6ddd63…
02-20 15:11:08	bitcoin above 66k on february 20	No	BUY	294	7¢	$20	0x4f3364…
02-20 15:11:00	bitcoin above 68k on february 20	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x17de2b…
02-20 15:10:50	bitcoin above 70k on february 20	Yes	BUY	1,153	1¢	$10	0x829bf4…
02-18 16:13:22	bitcoin above 68k on february 18	Yes	BUY	1,293	4¢	$50	0xb632fc…
02-18 16:13:12	bitcoin above 66k on february 18	No	BUY	1,046	5¢	$50	0x63c7b0…
02-17 16:50:31	bitcoin above 68k on february 17	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xf56910…
02-17 16:50:01	bitcoin above 68k on february 17	Yes	BUY	65	3¢	$2	0xc95fe1…
02-17 15:19:47	bitcoin above 66k on february 17	No	BUY	109	10¢	$11	0x5ccb59…
02-17 15:19:39	bitcoin above 64k on february 17	No	BUY	1,054	1¢	$9	0xc169fd…
02-17 15:19:25	bitcoin above 70k on february 17	Yes	BUY	1,053	1¢	$9	0xbb8e93…
02-15 16:01:49	crint ind pak 2026 02 15	Pakistan	BUY	526	4¢	$20	0xe775aa…
02-14 23:00:49	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	1,302	1¢	$10	0x006967…
02-14 12:48:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	356	3¢	$10	0x20d371…
02-14 12:47:29	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	1,250	2¢	$25	0x95300b…
02-11 16:59:55	bitcoin above 66k on february 11	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xf3779b…
02-11 16:54:51	bitcoin above 66k on february 11	No	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0x3200c8…
02-11 16:49:47	bitcoin above 66k on february 11	No	SELL	84	47¢	$40	0xbf74ef…
02-11 14:48:41	bitcoin above 68k on february 11	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xdfcce3…
02-11 14:43:45	bitcoin above 68k on february 11	Yes	SELL	61	17¢	$10	0x63181c…
02-11 14:37:31	bitcoin above 68k on february 11	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0xd07cfd…
02-11 14:11:41	bitcoin above 68k on february 11	Yes	SELL	75	61¢	$46	0x41fb7a…
02-11 13:26:27	bitcoin above 64k on february 11	No	BUY	387	5¢	$20	0xf1e10c…
02-11 13:26:17	bitcoin above 66k on february 11	No	BUY	84	24¢	$20	0x89d0f2…
02-11 13:26:01	bitcoin above 68k on february 11	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0xeb55eb…
02-11 13:25:41	bitcoin above 70k on february 11	Yes	BUY	476	2¢	$10	0xd649d3…