Hot-Backbone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.05K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.5%

Resolved

Trades

235

lifetime

Volume

$15.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 06-13 16:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

56% 31% -$390

Other

44% 47% -$658

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-13).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$3.8K	6,705	6,705	+0	No	-$186	04-12 02:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	11	$2.4K	1,492	1,492	+0	Yes	+$614	04-05 04:02
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	6	$1.9K	1,355	1,355	+0	No	+$33	04-10 00:07
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	5	$915	1,459	1,459	+0	No	-$25	05-01 04:03
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$847	5,921	5,921	+0	No	-$137	03-27 18:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$538	2,070	2,070	+0	No	-$248	04-11 05:31
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$520	800	800	+0	No	-$56	04-11 05:42
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	3	$304	20,003	0	+20,003	No	-$304	04-12 03:28
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	2	$277	530	530	+0	Yes	-$193	04-17 16:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$242	571	571	+0	No	+$20	05-02 13:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$207	714	714	+0	No	+$7	04-10 21:20
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	2	$197	435	435	+0	No	-$3	04-10 00:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	7	$195	6,408	6,408	+0	No	-$124	05-26 02:31
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026	2	$182	565	565	+0	No	-$18	04-12 03:21
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	3	$142	1,544	1,544	+0	No	-$78	04-11 05:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$127	126	126	+0	No	-$11	05-25 23:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$123	111	111	+0	No	+$15	05-24 06:25
Nothing Ever Happens: May	4	$121	91	71	+20	Nothing	+$1	05-25 23:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	4	$120	108	108	+0	No	-$3	05-24 06:26
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	2	$115	884	884	+0	No	+$15	04-10 12:51
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	7	$107	91	91	+0	No	-$21	05-25 22:57
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?	2	$103	3,287	3,287	+0	No	-$77	04-10 23:00
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$96	85	85	+0	Yes	+$19	05-23 18:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	10	$95	126	126	+0	Yes	+$8	05-25 22:59
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	2	$82	46	46	+0	No	+$10	05-13 17:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$71	89	89	+0	Yes	+$21	06-12 17:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$58	728	728	+0	No	+$18	05-18 01:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$56	100	100	+0	No	+$16	05-06 10:56
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	2	$55	714	714	+0	No	-$45	04-10 20:29
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$53	175	175	+0	No	-$7	04-11 05:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 16:32:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	28	74¢	$21	0x2be153…
06-13 16:31:37	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	188	11¢	$21	0x26594f…
06-13 04:08:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	27	83¢	$23	0xd83282…
06-13 04:05:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	42¢	$23	0xc8dcc7…
06-12 17:55:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xaf84cb…
06-12 17:54:48	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0xcefac6…
06-12 17:52:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	89	51¢	$46	0xcf6571…
06-07 04:22:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	46	28¢	$13	0x76afe1…
06-07 04:20:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcd6590…
06-07 04:19:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xd54b8b…
06-01 07:33:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	24	78¢	$18	0xed8e8b…
06-01 07:31:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xc726d1…
06-01 07:30:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x3f8f97…
05-27 01:26:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	32	35¢	$11	0x7ceb9f…
05-26 02:31:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	5,628	0¢	$11	0x1d5876…
05-25 23:40:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	670	2¢	$15	0xf823af…
05-25 23:39:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	39¢	$15	0xfdf8f0…
05-25 23:37:53	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	3,056	2¢	$70	0x63e06a…
05-25 23:37:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	126	46¢	$58	0x289cc5…
05-25 23:35:13	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	856	2¢	$20	0x16a18c…
05-25 23:30:21	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	47	66¢	$31	0x540a25…
05-25 23:27:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	1,047	4¢	$45	0xa08374…
05-25 23:27:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	780	3¢	$24	0x1ee7ff…
05-25 23:02:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	SELL	96	6¢	$5	0x9350d7…
05-25 23:00:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	Yes	BUY	96	10¢	$10	0x21accb…
05-25 22:59:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	61	42¢	$26	0x761c60…
05-25 22:57:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	780	1¢	$9	0x827de5…
05-25 22:57:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	20¢	$10	0x136ff2…
05-25 22:55:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	81¢	$39	0x5f3c21…
05-25 22:53:26	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	93	21¢	$20	0xcec283…
05-25 22:53:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	214	9¢	$19	0x290682…
05-24 06:58:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	44	56¢	$25	0x0c5b64…
05-24 06:57:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	SELL	69	36¢	$25	0x1816e6…
05-24 06:56:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x60ec3b…
05-24 06:55:50	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x2e3b25…
05-24 06:53:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	61	40¢	$24	0x49d8c1…
05-24 06:51:40	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	58	42¢	$24	0xe7de45…
05-24 06:44:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	65¢	$26	0xcddcd9…
05-24 06:42:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x69af74…
05-24 06:39:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x029369…
05-24 06:29:11	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0xcda6e8…
05-24 06:27:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	74	54¢	$40	0xbc5ea6…
05-24 06:26:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	54¢	$59	0xcc76ba…
05-24 06:25:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x1ad605…
05-24 06:25:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	62¢	$69	0xf47356…
05-24 03:12:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0xe0c21d…
05-24 03:11:05	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x8cc5db…
05-24 03:09:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	57	42¢	$24	0x82cc8e…
05-24 03:09:11	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	70	34¢	$24	0x2983c6…
05-24 03:07:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	42¢	$11	0xbdc07f…
05-24 03:05:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0x26cbef…
05-24 02:49:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	56¢	$24	0x3ef254…
05-24 02:47:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x6e8904…
05-23 22:03:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xdc09b2…
05-23 22:03:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	35¢	$2	0xf89d96…
05-23 21:09:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xaac548…
05-23 20:50:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	45¢	$6	0xdb8e72…
05-23 20:47:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xdefdd8…
05-23 20:46:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xd6ff73…
05-23 20:41:14	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0xebe8f6…
05-23 18:26:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0xb1f7a4…
05-23 18:13:41	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	19¢	$4	0x85c606…
05-23 18:03:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x66af80…
05-23 17:31:41	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x795381…
05-23 17:27:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0x3b9e5a…
05-23 15:46:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x08f2b1…
05-23 15:41:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	70¢	$19	0x6255c2…
05-23 15:09:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x40e2ea…
05-23 14:25:40	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xab0bcf…
05-23 07:00:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x632512…
05-23 06:52:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	6	73¢	$5	0x633f91…
05-23 06:44:16	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xc1bfa7…
05-22 23:50:31	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	43¢	$8	0xca1a96…
05-22 23:46:28	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x0f8e9f…
05-22 23:46:10	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	30¢	$9	0xb98a23…
05-22 22:16:39	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	25¢	$2	0xe285dc…
05-22 22:14:58	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xc70557…
05-22 22:12:01	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xe5a204…
05-22 12:48:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	55¢	$26	0x5a40c6…
05-22 05:24:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x646f33…
05-22 05:21:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	12	51¢	$6	0x20bd7f…
05-22 05:12:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xc1dce2…
05-22 04:29:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x6b449f…
05-22 04:20:56	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	33¢	$13	0xece2bb…
05-21 17:18:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	65¢	$39	0x033443…
05-19 01:54:09	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0xb2013e…
05-18 21:58:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x2ad3d8…
05-18 21:49:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xacdaa2…
05-18 21:39:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x7280fc…
05-18 16:30:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	46¢	$39	0xa09ec2…
05-18 16:22:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	24¢	$14	0xc2b123…
05-18 01:08:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	270	2¢	$5	0x51e7ba…
05-15 21:59:06	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x116e1e…
05-15 21:36:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x016660…
05-15 11:09:54	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xd236be…
05-15 03:58:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0xa9ac52…
05-15 03:58:34	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xe3b11a…
05-15 03:58:34	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	14	80¢	$11	0x5d523c…
05-14 02:36:16	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x564680…
05-14 02:31:38	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	56	25¢	$14	0x8d0876…