Noted-Pledge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$247

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

89.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$115

1 position

First seen

2026-02-25

last 10-19 09:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Politics

64% 60% -$25

Other

30% 75% +$317

Crypto

3% 45% -$3

Sports

3% 0% -$43

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes		+176	$111	66¢	$115	+$4	10-19 09:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$980	748	748	+0	Yes	+$8	05-13 18:08
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	1	$289	480	0	+480	No	+$191	04-09 15:24
pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	6	$167	304	20	+284	No	+$141	03-25 20:45
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	1	$111	176	0	+176	open	—	10-19 09:12
sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	4	$103	63	63	+0	Yes	+$7	03-08 21:40
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$100	57	57	+0	Yes	+$14	03-08 21:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$87	60	60	+0	Yes	+$27	02-28 19:46
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$48	137	0	+137	Yes	-$48	02-27 13:40
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$26	84	0	+84	Yes	-$26	02-25 15:34
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$22	61	0	+61	No	-$22	06-18 07:16
sea int gen 2026 02 28 int	2	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	+$3	02-28 22:31
italy nordio reform referendum passes	2	$20	37	37	+0	No	-$20	03-23 15:03
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$19	43	43	+0	No	-$1	04-01 12:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	3	$15	11	6	+5	Down	-$5	05-01 17:04
will galatasaray reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	2	$12	32	32	+0	No	-$8	03-18 20:49
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	2	$10	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-01 12:34
sea laz mil 2026 03 15 draw	2	$10	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-15 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$10	7	7	+0	Up	$0	05-01 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$10	8	8	+0	Down	$0	05-01 16:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:25 UTC	4	$8	9	9	+0	Up	+$0	03-01 11:29
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$7	25	0	+25	No	-$7	06-18 07:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:05 UTC	2	$6	6	0	+6	Up	+$0	03-01 11:09
sea rom juv 2026 03 01 rom	1	$6	15	0	+15	No	-$6	03-01 11:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Up	+$6	05-01 17:05
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	16	0	+16	No	-$5	06-18 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-15 10:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:30 UTC	3	$4	6	6	+0	Down	-$4	03-01 11:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:20 UTC	2	$3	4	4	+0	Down	-$3	03-01 11:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-14 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	-$1	05-14 13:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 09:12:53	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	176	63¢	$111	0x0984e6…
06-18 07:16:32	Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x90cfbd…
06-18 07:15:01	Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x8f3ced…
06-18 07:13:19	Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xfcb9bc…
06-18 07:10:52	Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x385e47…
05-15 10:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe24954…
05-14 13:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xd18ce0…
05-14 13:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4325b6…
05-14 13:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x376261…
05-13 18:08:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	738	66¢	$487	0x5afaaf…
05-01 17:36:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	738	65¢	$480	0x075b7a…
05-01 17:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5ab920…
05-01 17:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x07adf1…
05-01 17:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0xb63608…
05-01 17:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x59845d…
05-01 16:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x7f4bbe…
05-01 16:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd75252…
05-01 16:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xd2a0de…
05-01 16:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xc0902b…
05-01 16:32:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0xce4e51…
05-01 16:18:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x9d152d…
04-09 15:24:03	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	No	BUY	480	60¢	$289	0xeded78…
04-01 12:35:27	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	43	21¢	$9	0xc8fc41…
04-01 12:34:51	Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x602bc9…
03-25 20:45:41	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x33dd31…
03-25 20:45:25	Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa010e5…
03-23 15:03:03	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	SELL	37	1¢	$0	0xe32286…
03-18 20:49:35	will galatasaray reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0xf64c30…
03-15 20:17:17	sea laz mil 2026 03 15 draw	Yes	SELL	18	29¢	$5	0x08dde1…
03-15 09:32:39	sea laz mil 2026 03 15 draw	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x3081fe…
03-15 09:30:11	will galatasaray reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x5c6b46…
03-15 09:26:37	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x309672…
03-08 21:40:05	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	SELL	63	87¢	$55	0x24bff1…
03-08 21:28:59	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x0288fd…
03-08 21:28:19	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x93495f…
03-08 21:27:47	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xa300f5…
03-08 21:19:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0x5335ce…
03-03 22:26:01	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	57	75¢	$43	0x191e00…
03-01 11:34:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:30 UTC	Up	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x25d17d…
03-01 11:32:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x726434…
03-01 11:31:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xbfe1b4…
03-01 11:29:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:25 UTC	Down	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0xa17e21…
03-01 11:26:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6f1031…
03-01 11:26:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:25 UTC	Up	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x30b1f8…
03-01 11:25:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x474dd0…
03-01 11:24:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:20 UTC	Up	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x154752…
03-01 11:21:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x125556…
03-01 11:09:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa57f34…
03-01 11:08:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x7bb326…
03-01 11:03:53	sea rom juv 2026 03 01 rom	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x8fbd3f…
02-28 22:31:15	sea int gen 2026 02 28 int	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x04d822…
02-28 19:46:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0xa7a8f7…
02-28 18:27:37	sea int gen 2026 02 28 int	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x63db89…
02-28 13:23:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xf04607…
02-28 13:23:03	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x22968b…
02-28 10:44:07	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	89	41¢	$36	0x620531…
02-28 10:41:41	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x9c08f0…
02-28 09:51:55	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	97	49¢	$47	0xa4bef5…
02-28 09:47:43	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2f8edb…
02-27 13:40:01	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	137	35¢	$48	0x874264…
02-25 15:34:24	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	31¢	$26	0x192484…
02-25 15:27:50	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0xa25234…