Noted-Pledge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

34.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$989

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 05-15 10:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% 100% +$0

Politics

26% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

3% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	1	$289	480	0	+480	open	—	04-09 15:24
pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	6	$167	304	20	+284	open	—	03-25 20:45
sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	4	$103	63	63	+0	open	—	03-08 21:40
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$100	57	57	+0	open	—	03-08 21:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$87	60	60	+0	open	—	02-28 19:46
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$48	137	0	+137	open	—	02-27 13:40
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$26	84	0	+84	open	—	02-25 15:34
sea int gen 2026 02 28 int	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	02-28 22:31
italy nordio reform referendum passes	2	$20	37	37	+0	open	—	03-23 15:03
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$19	43	43	+0	No	$-1	04-01 12:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	3	$15	11	6	+5	open	—	05-01 17:04
will galatasaray reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	2	$12	32	32	+0	open	—	03-18 20:49
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	2	$10	20	20	+0	No	+$0	04-01 12:34
sea laz mil 2026 03 15 draw	2	$10	18	18	+0	open	—	03-15 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	05-01 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	2	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	05-01 16:56
btc updown 5m 1772364300	4	$8	9	9	+0	open	—	03-01 11:29
btc updown 5m 1772363100	2	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	03-01 11:09
sea rom juv 2026 03 01 rom	1	$6	15	0	+15	open	—	03-01 11:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	05-01 17:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-15 10:30
btc updown 5m 1772364600	3	$4	6	6	+0	open	—	03-01 11:34
btc updown 5m 1772364000	2	$3	4	4	+0	open	—	03-01 11:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-14 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-14 13:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 10:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe24954…
05-14 13:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xd18ce0…
05-14 13:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4325b6…
05-14 13:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x376261…
05-01 17:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5ab920…
05-01 17:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x07adf1…
05-01 17:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0xb63608…
05-01 17:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x59845d…
05-01 16:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x7f4bbe…
05-01 16:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xd75252…
05-01 16:52:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xd2a0de…
05-01 16:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xc0902b…
04-09 15:24:03	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	No	BUY	480	60¢	$289	0xeded78…
04-01 12:35:27	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	43	21¢	$9	0xc8fc41…
04-01 12:34:51	Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x602bc9…
03-25 20:45:41	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	43	96¢	$42	0x33dd31…
03-25 20:45:25	Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa010e5…
03-23 15:03:03	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	SELL	37	1¢	$0	0xe32286…
03-18 20:49:35	will galatasaray reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0xf64c30…
03-15 20:17:17	sea laz mil 2026 03 15 draw	Yes	SELL	18	29¢	$5	0x08dde1…
03-15 09:32:39	sea laz mil 2026 03 15 draw	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x3081fe…
03-15 09:30:11	will galatasaray reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x5c6b46…
03-15 09:26:37	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x309672…
03-08 21:40:05	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	SELL	63	87¢	$55	0x24bff1…
03-08 21:28:59	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x0288fd…
03-08 21:28:19	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x93495f…
03-08 21:27:47	sea mil int 2026 03 08 mil	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xa300f5…
03-08 21:19:21	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0x5335ce…
03-03 22:26:01	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	57	75¢	$43	0x191e00…
03-01 11:34:29	btc updown 5m 1772364600	Up	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x25d17d…
03-01 11:32:01	btc updown 5m 1772364600	Up	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x726434…
03-01 11:31:53	btc updown 5m 1772364600	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xbfe1b4…
03-01 11:29:29	btc updown 5m 1772364300	Down	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0xa17e21…
03-01 11:26:57	btc updown 5m 1772364300	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6f1031…
03-01 11:26:17	btc updown 5m 1772364300	Up	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x30b1f8…
03-01 11:25:43	btc updown 5m 1772364300	Up	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x474dd0…
03-01 11:24:29	btc updown 5m 1772364000	Up	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x154752…
03-01 11:21:55	btc updown 5m 1772364000	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x125556…
03-01 11:09:57	btc updown 5m 1772363100	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa57f34…
03-01 11:08:23	btc updown 5m 1772363100	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x7bb326…
03-01 11:03:53	sea rom juv 2026 03 01 rom	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x8fbd3f…
02-28 22:31:15	sea int gen 2026 02 28 int	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x04d822…
02-28 19:46:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0xa7a8f7…
02-28 18:27:37	sea int gen 2026 02 28 int	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x63db89…
02-28 13:23:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xf04607…
02-28 13:23:03	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x22968b…
02-28 10:44:07	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	89	41¢	$36	0x620531…
02-28 10:41:41	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x9c08f0…
02-28 09:51:55	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	97	49¢	$47	0xa4bef5…
02-28 09:47:43	pakistan x afghanistan ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2f8edb…
02-27 13:40:01	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	137	35¢	$48	0x874264…
02-25 15:34:24	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	31¢	$26	0x192484…
02-25 15:27:50	italy nordio reform referendum passes	Yes	BUY	37	53¢	$20	0xa25234…