Elementary-Trick — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$270

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

29.6%

Resolved

187

Trades

341

lifetime

Volume

$1.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-29 16:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 31% -$199

Other

10% 37% -$20

Sports

5% 10% -$7

Tech

3% 0% -$36

Politics

1% 0% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12PM ET	18	$469	1,949	387	+1,562	Down	-$81	04-26 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11AM ET	7	$117	237	105	+132	Up	-$41	04-28 15:53
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 28?	5	$89	51	51	+0	Down	+$6	04-28 16:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET	4	$68	77	77	+0	Up	-$6	04-28 16:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$44	59	59	+0	Up	-$8	04-28 19:10
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	5	$44	58	52	+6	Down	+$5	04-24 21:13
Fight to Go the Distance?	2	$41	31	31	+0	Yes	+$21	05-10 04:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10AM ET	2	$40	43	43	+0	Down	$0	04-28 14:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	4	$30	114	8	+106	Up	+$89	04-26 15:29
Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	2	$28	19	19	+0	100 Thieves	+$6	05-02 17:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6AM ET	4	$27	27	27	+0	Up	-$3	05-01 11:02
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group A	4	$26	20	20	+0	Ursa	+$3	05-01 09:55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$24	610	0	+610	Yes	-$24	09-16 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	1	$24	35	0	+35	Down	+$11	04-28 14:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	2	$24	42	42	+0	Up	-$22	04-28 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	4	$24	1,648	0	+1,648	Down	-$24	04-24 23:59
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 24?	3	$23	466	212	+255	No	-$17	04-24 21:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10?	2	$23	15	15	+0	Yes	+$3	05-10 04:48
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	6	$22	44	44	+0	Sean Strickland	-$6	05-10 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$18	1,316	0	+1,316	Up	-$2	04-26 15:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	3	$17	30	9	+21	Up	+$18	04-24 23:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	7	$17	35	35	+0	Up	-$9	05-01 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	2	$16	33	31	+2	Up	+$4	04-24 23:13
Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs	1	$15	22	0	+22	JD Gaming	+$7	05-01 12:01
Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	1	$14	19	0	+19	ZETA DIVISION	-$14	05-01 12:01
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner	2	$14	10	10	+0	Ursa	+$4	05-01 09:39
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	2	$13	67	67	+0	open	—	10-29 16:09
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$13	3,500	0	+3,500	No	-$13	04-24 22:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	1	$13	31	0	+31	Down	-$13	04-24 20:16
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	2	$12	154	154	+0	open	—	10-29 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 16:09:38	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$0	0xd5b7a0…
10-29 16:09:32	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x977f74…
10-29 16:09:26	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	154	1¢	$2	0xf7ec20…
10-29 16:09:20	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	5¢	$3	0xff90ee…
10-29 16:09:13	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	3¢	$4	0x62acbb…
10-29 16:08:55	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0xf2698a…
09-16 00:18:22	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	5¢	$6	0x59ade8…
09-16 00:12:00	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf7caa5…
09-16 00:11:48	Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x860342…
09-16 00:11:33	Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xed3b37…
09-16 00:11:15	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xbea816…
09-16 00:10:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0xb8165a…
09-16 00:09:58	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xe0f4e1…
09-16 00:09:16	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	154	6¢	$10	0xb8fca4…
09-16 00:04:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	550	4¢	$22	0x23f170…
09-16 00:04:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x406085…
09-14 18:30:52	dota2 rostik1 cooman 2026 09 14	Cooman Club	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x72c992…
09-14 18:17:28	Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf59a06…
09-14 18:11:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x271795…
09-14 18:05:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2ef926…
09-14 18:04:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-14 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4d6579…
09-14 17:59:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xee3e2d…
09-14 17:43:55	dota2 rostik1 cooman 2026 09 14	Rostik999 Club	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xfae6a9…
09-14 17:06:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xe93442…
09-14 17:04:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0xc9c697…
09-14 17:03:00	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xe27b6a…
09-14 16:57:51	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xebe537…
09-14 16:57:39	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xed9b61…
09-14 16:52:39	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x56fc47…
09-14 16:52:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	448	1¢	$5	0x3e6394…
09-14 16:51:52	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xc30fbc…
09-14 16:50:07	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x5909dc…
09-14 16:44:10	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x0fa7be…
09-14 16:35:39	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x6e1670…
05-22 20:29:44	Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xdd48c8…
05-22 20:25:58	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x6b21a5…
05-22 20:24:32	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	42	6¢	$2	0xe3cae2…
05-22 19:43:46	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	444	0¢	$1	0xa46998…
05-22 19:03:06	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0x99f376…
05-22 18:17:19	Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x65abed…
05-22 18:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xdc569d…
05-21 13:33:34	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0x73839f…
05-21 13:32:48	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x9ca517…
05-21 13:32:38	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x650a59…
05-20 21:37:36	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x59e5b9…
05-20 17:21:33	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfdff26…
05-14 16:46:48	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x52e9a5…
05-14 16:46:42	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x223e21…
05-14 16:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3923c3…
05-14 16:45:13	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xf26d79…
05-14 16:44:22	Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xdf01bc…
05-14 16:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x652418…
05-14 16:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe9f747…
05-14 16:42:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1d0c3d…
05-14 16:35:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x8fe836…
05-12 14:47:25	Solana Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xb4db0a…
05-12 11:07:26	Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa36fb9…
05-12 10:52:41	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8edb36…
05-12 10:21:25	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xfddafd…
05-12 08:53:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x465d3f…
05-12 08:43:44	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x706954…
05-12 08:41:36	Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x0551fb…
05-11 15:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x0c82b3…
05-11 10:20:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x865944…
05-11 09:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xb41a11…
05-11 09:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdf704c…
05-11 09:26:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x264666…
05-11 08:21:12	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xca4fee…
05-11 08:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xa5723a…
05-10 05:18:24	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	MOUZ	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x48e882…
05-10 05:17:24	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage	K27	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x7c3041…
05-10 05:02:44	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?	Yes	BUY	216	2¢	$4	0x60eafb…
05-10 04:53:08	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x5549f2…
05-10 04:48:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10?	Yes	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0x3f8472…
05-10 04:48:00	Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x899dd1…
05-10 04:44:55	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x0b7deb…
05-10 04:41:49	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xb2bdcd…
05-10 04:38:26	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x4c4053…
05-10 04:28:15	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xb98b8b…
05-10 04:26:16	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0xf320b6…
05-10 04:16:13	Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?	Yes	SELL	21	10¢	$2	0x488e7c…
05-10 04:16:04	Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0xa68091…
05-10 00:57:46	Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	21	11¢	$2	0x958c02…
05-10 00:57:12	Will the fight be won by submission?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xc518ac…
05-10 00:56:29	Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xd5cbe0…
05-10 00:56:08	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xbdf208…
05-09 15:10:43	Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0xb413cf…
05-09 15:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x3d54f4…
05-09 14:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x7b4341…
05-09 14:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x177802…
05-09 14:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x168334…
05-09 14:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x3d6162…
05-09 14:33:29	LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	GIANTX	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x168765…
05-09 14:29:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x116630…
05-09 14:27:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x517439…
05-09 14:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x67afbf…
05-09 14:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xfc36f4…
05-09 14:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x704e2f…
05-09 14:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x225254…
05-09 13:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2192e5…