Agonizing-Auditorium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$206

Unrealized P&L

-$23

Hit rate

83.0%

Resolved

187

Trades

408

lifetime

Volume

$4.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$41

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-20

last 10-22 10:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

73% 83% -$116

Politics

13% 100% +$15

Crypto

10% 82% -$33

Sports

4% 71% -$71

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+70	$35	19¢	$13	-$22	09-11 19:38
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	+11	$10	96¢	$10	+$0	08-24 05:12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	+11	$10	97¢	$10	+$0	09-03 06:29
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	08-24 05:12
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+140	$4	2¢	$2	-$2	07-27 23:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$218	170	170	+0	open	—	06-09 22:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	2	$203	147	147	+0	open	—	05-26 16:09
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	7	$136	100	100	+0	No	+$11	10-06 20:08
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	29	$120	155	70	+85	HOTU	+$25	09-01 16:01
russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	2	$117	71	71	+0	open	—	10-16 12:58
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC?	1	$110	111	0	+111	No	+$1	05-20 18:42
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 2 Aston Villa FC?	1	$101	102	0	+102	No	+$1	05-20 18:44
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$89	230	0	+230	No	-$89	07-13 04:39
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	4	$81	45	45	+0	No	+$3	09-14 05:50
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Sweden?	4	$73	40	40	+0	No	+$1	06-30 22:35
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	2	$65	268	0	+268	Usyk	-$11	05-23 20:32
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Tunisia?	1	$61	62	0	+62	No	+$1	06-06 14:00
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 4pt5	1	$60	62	0	+62	Under	+$2	06-14 21:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	3	$59	60	0	+60	Up	+$1	05-21 13:04
cs2 b8 vit 2026 08 14 game1	8	$59	70	0	+70	Vitality	-$59	08-14 14:04
cs2 ts7 jjh 2026 08 12	7	$56	45	45	+0	JiJieHao	-$2	08-12 11:12
cs2 bb3 faze 2026 08 12	5	$52	53	5	+48	FaZe	+$3	08-12 15:28
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$50	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-03 21:33
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5	1	$50	52	0	+52	Under	+$2	05-31 19:33
Exact Score: Cambodia 3 - 2 Bhutan?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	06-04 12:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	3	$50	51	0	+51	Down	+$1	05-22 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$50	50	0	+50	Down	+$0	05-21 21:44
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Austria?	3	$49	54	0	+54	No	+$5	07-02 19:02
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Nicaragua?	1	$48	48	0	+48	No	+$0	06-05 23:36
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	06-18 20:20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	2	$45	30	30	+0	Yes	+$6	08-31 20:24
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 1 Romania?	2	$45	47	0	+47	No	+$2	06-02 18:29
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Poland?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	06-09 19:59
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 24?	7	$43	48	0	+48	No	+$5	08-24 05:19
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden?	1	$42	45	0	+45	No	+$3	06-25 22:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 10:26:14	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xc3c9f3…
10-22 09:36:06	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	SELL	15	63¢	$9	0x872cbb…
10-22 09:30:53	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x2921ed…
10-22 09:25:03	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x83c3e6…
10-22 09:24:42	Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	Diana Shnaider	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xf6e840…
10-16 12:58:27	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	SELL	71	94¢	$67	0x2b8acf…
10-07 05:46:17	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x2e4da3…
10-06 20:59:17	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xb3b347…
10-06 20:59:00	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x502490…
10-06 20:08:45	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0xf8fb24…
09-14 05:50:46	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	93¢	$42	0xa12834…
09-12 07:25:04	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	26¢	$8	0x640cc0…
09-11 19:38:15	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x62f4b3…
09-09 13:44:37	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd97744…
09-09 13:44:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x78d9e3…
09-04 08:54:28	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0x839484…
09-04 08:53:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x927e71…
09-04 06:20:01	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xbfce67…
09-03 23:17:37	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x762014…
09-03 06:29:52	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xa3d7d4…
09-03 06:27:18	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x722763…
09-03 06:27:03	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x635022…
09-03 06:26:54	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0xceb5d9…
09-02 21:44:33	Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x56adf1…
09-01 19:04:25	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xd0a0c1…
09-01 18:47:51	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color - Map 2 Winner	Color	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x2dd084…
09-01 18:44:16	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color - Map 2 Winner	Color	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x245210…
09-01 18:39:51	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe9d00f…
09-01 18:39:45	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe8e322…
09-01 18:38:51	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color - Map 2 Winner	Color	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x2bb6f7…
09-01 18:38:22	US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio Cobolli	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x6cee39…
09-01 18:35:06	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x4d15dc…
09-01 18:29:45	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbf754d…
09-01 18:17:30	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x05d4f9…
09-01 18:16:49	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0xfff85d…
09-01 18:15:28	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xcee16d…
09-01 18:15:28	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color - Map 1 Winner	Color	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa96024…
09-01 18:14:31	Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Color - Map 1 Winner	Color	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf7e83d…
09-01 16:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xb99cab…
09-01 16:01:13	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x8c71e0…
09-01 16:00:09	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xf6b755…
09-01 15:54:52	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xb0be1e…
09-01 15:51:57	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xd355a8…
09-01 15:50:40	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x42a648…
09-01 15:31:42	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x266d33…
09-01 15:31:40	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x6a5690…
09-01 15:29:22	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xe2e75e…
09-01 15:26:36	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x38d65d…
09-01 15:25:57	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	Color	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xf04150…
09-01 15:25:54	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xaf328f…
09-01 15:25:54	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	Color	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x32d852…
09-01 15:16:07	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xb90c92…
09-01 15:13:25	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x90f0ca…
09-01 15:12:30	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xa18204…
09-01 15:12:28	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x58c15c…
09-01 15:12:27	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x960217…
09-01 15:05:49	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x52dcac…
09-01 14:37:01	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xcb9881…
09-01 14:36:15	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xe74217…
09-01 13:40:30	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x39c44f…
09-01 13:31:37	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x7f5176…
09-01 12:14:00	BNB Up or Down - September 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc4e68f…
09-01 12:09:40	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xcbd613…
09-01 12:08:34	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x68bc2a…
09-01 12:07:58	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xbc8c2d…
09-01 12:04:43	Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Brute - Map 1 Winner	WRAITH PCIFIC	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x65c30e…
09-01 12:03:39	Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Brute - Map 1 Winner	WRAITH PCIFIC	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x203269…
09-01 12:03:31	Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Brute - Map 1 Winner	WRAITH PCIFIC	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd209ec…
09-01 12:02:15	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Color (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x80d2e1…
09-01 09:20:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 1?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x381cb3…
08-31 20:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0x4310ba…
08-31 20:24:21	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x328e78…
08-31 19:25:21	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x11f62d…
08-31 05:13:28	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x56a359…
08-31 05:01:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x203ca4…
08-31 04:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x683ebb…
08-31 04:59:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 1?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xf232e4…
08-30 21:53:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xca8312…
08-30 21:53:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdfe197…
08-30 21:46:48	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 31?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x6780c2…
08-30 21:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xc1bcc5…
08-30 19:21:49	mlb bal oak 2026 08 30	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x1f63c5…
08-30 16:56:37	mlb pit stl 2026 08 30 total 7pt5	Over	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x90e29e…
08-29 23:23:54	cfb jaxst ndkst 2026 08 29	North Dakota State Bison	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xaaeb6a…
08-29 23:12:28	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 570m by August 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9b612b…
08-29 22:52:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 30?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x078b9d…
08-29 22:27:00	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on August 30?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcaf042…
08-29 22:13:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa7f6b9…
08-29 15:47:10	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 30?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x024b28…
08-29 12:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 29?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xee6c19…
08-29 12:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 29?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x23e7c2…
08-29 12:07:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 30?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xa1fa9a…
08-29 12:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 30?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xf22bdf…
08-29 11:58:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on August 29?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xf1e2a1…
08-29 11:54:03	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 30?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xeff1d5…
08-29 11:52:57	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on August 29?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x147e54…
08-29 11:52:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 29?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x836463…
08-29 06:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on August 29?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x11341d…
08-28 17:25:45	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 28?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x8e506e…
08-28 17:25:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 28?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xeb49f8…