Ill-Fated-Observation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.83K

Unrealized P&L

+$147

Hit rate

81.5%

Resolved

443

Trades

5,118

lifetime

Volume

$162.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$243

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-30 23:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 38% +$2,834

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+885	$144	28¢	$243	+$100	10-30 23:15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$2	86¢	$0	+$2	07-02 10:03
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	+0	-$45	1¢	$0	+$45	10-27 15:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	517	$19.4K	86,103	127,329	-41,226	No	+$1,874	03-26 21:19
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	488	$19.0K	102,291	101,363	+929	No	+$577	02-24 17:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	553	$13.8K	96,811	96,811	+0	No	+$450	04-23 18:33
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	30	$11.4K	15,006	14,121	+885	open	—	10-30 23:15
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	121	$10.0K	53,912	40,122	+13,790	No	-$1,062	02-06 13:42
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	110	$7.7K	55,013	56,013	-1,000	No	+$165	02-16 12:34
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	234	$6.9K	29,773	29,600	+174	No	+$56	03-10 19:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	94	$5.9K	23,068	23,068	+0	No	+$556	05-21 14:47
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	284	$5.7K	22,571	22,571	+0	No	+$338	05-20 15:16
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	176	$5.5K	20,148	20,148	+0	No	+$224	04-13 14:18
will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	54	$4.0K	36,016	36,016	+0	No	-$2,043	06-15 16:59
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	253	$3.9K	147,269	160,812	-13,543	No	+$1,025	01-30 08:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	66	$3.4K	20,574	20,574	+0	No	+$309	05-08 15:08
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	31	$3.2K	2,520	2,520	+0	open	—	10-21 15:51
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	82	$3.1K	22,985	22,985	+0	No	-$452	04-28 19:04
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	95	$2.5K	26,891	26,929	-38	No	+$285	01-21 19:51
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	101	$2.5K	10,099	10,099	+0	No	+$313	05-14 16:44
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	12	$2.5K	2,619	2,619	+0	open	—	10-27 15:46
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?	9	$2.4K	2,252	2,172	+80	Yes	+$345	09-20 08:55
will bitcoin dip to 70k in august 2026	50	$2.3K	5,698	5,698	+0	No	+$71	08-22 10:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	19	$2.3K	15,135	15,135	+0	No	+$192	04-24 18:47
will bitcoin dip to 75k in august 2026	29	$2.2K	4,581	4,581	+0	No	-$56	08-31 14:46
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?	11	$1.6K	1,268	1,268	+0	Yes	+$245	09-18 13:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?	22	$1.2K	2,536	2,536	+0	No	+$74	09-20 08:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?	14	$1.2K	1,109	1,109	+0	Yes	+$158	09-15 04:08
will bitcoin reach 63k on july 3	25	$1.1K	1,312	1,312	+0	No	-$29	07-04 00:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	16	$801	1,743	1,743	+0	Yes	+$105	04-27 05:15
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	8	$608	400	400	+0	open	—	10-05 06:09
will bitcoin dip to 75k on september 2 2026	18	$479	3,214	3,214	+0	No	+$78	09-02 16:05
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?	6	$418	401	401	+0	No	+$41	09-24 16:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 23:15:03	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x621b00…
10-30 14:40:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	180	14¢	$25	0xd9d9dd…
10-30 13:32:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x0efbdf…
10-30 13:32:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	78	48¢	$37	0x018473…
10-30 06:18:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	180	7¢	$13	0xa0ca0a…
10-30 06:17:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0x5803ef…
10-30 06:16:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0xc6216c…
10-30 01:41:37	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	31¢	$155	0x0a93c6…
10-29 20:47:19	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	239	37¢	$88	0x0bb2ce…
10-29 17:27:26	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	105	23¢	$24	0x74430b…
10-29 17:27:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	132	0¢	$1	0x298b82…
10-29 17:26:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0xd0ec96…
10-29 17:26:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x280511…
10-29 17:26:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0x7d11bb…
10-29 17:26:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0xb7b459…
10-29 07:33:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	322	4¢	$13	0x287200…
10-29 07:31:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	90	14¢	$13	0xf27ec4…
10-29 07:31:38	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	105	12¢	$13	0x91ae36…
10-28 20:13:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	57	2¢	$1	0xd794bb…
10-28 20:12:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x4ef9f8…
10-28 20:12:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x445d05…
10-28 08:39:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	157	8¢	$13	0x351c45…
10-27 16:56:48	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$50	0x7b2672…
10-27 15:46:36	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	1,821	48¢	$874	0xb42cd2…
10-27 15:45:48	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	156	48¢	$75	0xaf152d…
10-27 15:42:56	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	642	48¢	$308	0xafeb7c…
10-27 15:42:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0xdb69a6…
10-27 15:42:26	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	119	7¢	$8	0xeb3200…
10-27 15:42:00	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	228	1¢	$3	0xa17745…
10-27 15:41:48	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	216	1¢	$3	0xb95353…
10-27 15:41:39	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xd7b2ef…
10-27 15:41:30	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 27?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xd52612…
10-27 08:27:33	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,496	37¢	$554	0x17ac08…
10-27 08:27:30	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0xc02f03…
10-27 05:52:44	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	544	2¢	$13	0xaf01dc…
10-27 05:51:39	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	69	11¢	$8	0xb23d82…
10-27 05:50:23	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc3f25c…
10-27 05:48:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 27?	Yes	BUY	125	10¢	$12	0x4ce084…
10-26 16:30:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	97	8¢	$8	0xf1d993…
10-26 16:29:41	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	120	5¢	$6	0xa243a2…
10-26 16:29:20	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	74	2¢	$1	0x93276b…
10-26 16:29:12	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	99	2¢	$2	0xf0a905…
10-26 16:28:59	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x99d9ac…
10-26 16:28:47	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x56afa3…
10-26 16:28:38	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	86	2¢	$2	0x566a13…
10-26 16:28:23	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	SELL	36	2¢	$1	0x5da534…
10-26 06:16:38	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	63	20¢	$13	0x96b2f0…
10-26 06:16:03	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	205	6¢	$12	0xf1c2aa…
10-26 05:49:29	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	66	7¢	$5	0x521332…
10-26 05:45:53	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	133	6¢	$8	0x5cfeef…
10-26 05:45:24	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	32	22¢	$7	0xc8a387…
10-26 05:44:48	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x7539a8…
10-26 05:44:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	97	13¢	$13	0x784f6b…
10-24 14:27:17	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	620	51¢	$316	0xb0f9c5…
10-23 23:11:03	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0x515b81…
10-23 22:53:53	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	231	62¢	$143	0x3638ae…
10-23 15:59:03	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 23?	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$3	0x56f217…
10-23 15:58:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 23?	Yes	SELL	165	2¢	$4	0x36bd68…
10-23 15:58:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 23?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xd782f2…
10-23 15:58:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 23?	Yes	SELL	82	4¢	$3	0x320f86…
10-23 15:57:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	SELL	66	9¢	$6	0x3fc96f…
10-23 05:48:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0xd92de7…
10-23 05:47:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	228	5¢	$11	0xe40334…
10-23 05:39:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	66	19¢	$13	0x978872…
10-23 05:38:17	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 23?	Yes	BUY	125	10¢	$12	0x5675d8…
10-23 00:13:56	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	141	73¢	$103	0x34d78d…
10-22 16:43:45	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in october 2026 from october 22	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x584042…
10-22 16:42:09	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in october 2026 from october 22	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x781fff…
10-22 16:42:09	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in october 2026 from october 22	Yes	BUY	55	84¢	$46	0x5495d7…
10-22 14:42:47	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 22?	Yes	SELL	114	1¢	$1	0x15d824…
10-22 14:42:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 22?	Yes	SELL	218	11¢	$24	0xe31aa4…
10-22 14:40:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 22?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x29c97c…
10-22 09:11:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 22?	Yes	SELL	74	51¢	$38	0x437ba6…
10-22 06:07:38	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	232	5¢	$13	0x7c300a…
10-22 06:04:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	74	17¢	$13	0xb15cea…
10-22 06:01:22	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	114	11¢	$13	0x7bcc90…
10-21 15:51:45	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	277	90¢	$249	0xe8b956…
10-21 15:51:36	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4b86a0…
10-21 15:50:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 21?	Yes	SELL	228	0¢	$0	0x427009…
10-21 15:49:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 21?	Yes	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x705f91…
10-21 08:50:20	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	Yes	SELL	139	27¢	$38	0x1852ad…
10-21 06:07:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	66	19¢	$13	0xd86f24…
10-21 06:03:24	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	139	9¢	$13	0x40fcad…
10-21 06:00:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	223	6¢	$12	0x5ec698…
10-21 05:59:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 21?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x240ade…
10-20 16:54:27	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	73	2¢	$1	0xc3831a…
10-20 16:54:15	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	184	2¢	$4	0xf5f6e9…
10-20 16:54:05	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x3ad84d…
10-20 16:53:41	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x52020f…
10-20 16:52:26	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0xd89ef5…
10-20 16:52:11	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xbe6850…
10-20 16:51:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$2	0x382b9a…
10-20 14:10:30	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	114	33¢	$38	0xd0269e…
10-20 12:38:12	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	188	47¢	$88	0x9ae695…
10-20 05:33:29	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	159	4¢	$7	0x2ad9ae…
10-20 05:33:29	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	146	4¢	$6	0x239915…
10-20 05:24:50	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	114	11¢	$13	0xe55a2f…
10-20 05:23:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	125	10¢	$12	0x8776f2…
10-19 17:11:38	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0xaa5bac…
10-19 16:08:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 19?	Yes	SELL	63	30¢	$19	0xed12f7…