Untimely-Baby — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

97.4%

Resolved

119

Trades

147

lifetime

Volume

$1.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-04 16:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 48 days

Categories

Other

47% 95% +$7

Politics

37% 91% +$13

Crypto

16% 96% -$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+1	$1	81¢	$1	+$0	10-27 19:53
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		-232	-$1	0¢	$-0	+$1	09-01 18:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	9	$223	119	119	+0	No	+$5	10-28 10:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$89	45	45	+0	No	+$0	08-14 11:27
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	1	$62	63	0	+63	Yes	+$0	11-04 04:02
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$62	63	0	+63	Yes	+$1	11-04 16:01
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	1	$50	51	0	+51	Yes	+$0	09-10 06:42
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	09-04 05:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	09-07 01:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	1	$41	43	0	+43	No	+$2	08-27 15:09
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	08-21 21:37
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	3	$41	22	22	+0	No	+$1	10-21 12:24
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-05 06:54
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$39	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	06-27 04:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	07-31 20:42
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	2	$32	50	50	+0	No	+$0	10-17 16:49
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	09-21 20:12
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$29	18	18	+0	open	—	10-20 08:58
msft above 315 on march 31 2026	1	$27	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	03-31 04:04
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-31 17:51
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	08-18 17:50
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-16 03:08
will silver si hit high 160 by end of february 597 366 984 937	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	02-24 16:13
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	06-30 00:28
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-28 17:52
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	05-26 00:38
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	05-29 00:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	09-27 17:39
will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	06-29 01:29
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	01-23 09:33
si above 40 jan 2026	2	$8	8	0	+8	Yes	+$0	01-22 08:45
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 115	2	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	01-20 05:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 16:01:43	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xbfc235…
11-04 16:01:43	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x28aaa4…
11-04 04:02:24	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	100¢	$62	0x7bbbb1…
10-28 10:48:47	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$36	0x17c45d…
10-28 10:48:46	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xdd6693…
10-28 10:47:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xbd60d1…
10-28 10:47:58	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x50c32c…
10-28 10:20:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	62	96¢	$59	0x562336…
10-28 03:55:55	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x8ed8b5…
10-28 03:55:40	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0xcd44ff…
10-28 03:55:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	38	95¢	$36	0x82df10…
10-27 22:07:17	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x4b75cc…
10-27 19:53:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xdca9ca…
10-25 22:27:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	310	2¢	$6	0x143063…
10-24 00:15:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	310	0¢	$0	0xa768c2…
10-21 12:24:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x511026…
10-21 12:24:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x620b7f…
10-20 08:58:22	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	18	79¢	$15	0xfa96dc…
10-19 17:05:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x3044d3…
10-17 16:49:38	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x151fa2…
10-13 15:22:23	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	18	79¢	$15	0x598e25…
10-11 18:27:16	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x6502ba…
10-05 06:54:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb85e69…
09-30 22:48:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3621a6…
09-30 18:44:14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf4d7e4…
09-27 17:39:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xdc2479…
09-27 05:11:53	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x478aa2…
09-25 17:00:35	will xrp reach 3 in september 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x003f48…
09-25 13:20:09	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x06e995…
09-25 04:08:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9af040…
09-23 14:30:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbf120a…
09-23 14:20:39	will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3c71f0…
09-22 13:20:46	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x596155…
09-21 20:12:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xfd6bc0…
09-16 08:45:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x15e9e5…
09-12 21:44:00	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc6a093…
09-10 06:42:27	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xa88d24…
09-07 01:40:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xbcb39d…
09-04 05:54:31	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x5e9ffc…
09-01 18:28:09	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	232	0¢	$1	0xe6aec3…
08-30 18:36:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa8aa8b…
08-27 15:09:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	94¢	$41	0x05366e…
08-25 22:05:31	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	0¢	$0	0x85eb43…
08-25 22:00:48	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xb1f514…
08-25 22:00:46	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	0¢	$0	0x9af33f…
08-25 21:50:24	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x58016d…
08-25 07:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C or below on August 26?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x358f7c…
08-24 19:57:43	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0x40ce44…
08-24 13:30:49	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x876bdd…
08-21 21:37:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x290ef0…
08-20 01:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on August 21?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0xd606fd…
08-18 17:50:25	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x55bfda…
08-16 13:07:36	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xad9d72…
08-15 22:33:06	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe5b0da…
08-15 15:40:28	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x30f643…
08-14 22:22:18	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x40679a…
08-14 11:27:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x2b908c…
08-10 21:03:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	45	100¢	$44	0x86a946…
08-08 11:12:04	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3bbcdf…
07-31 20:42:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x4558d7…
07-29 16:25:50	will wti dip to 70 in july 2026 from july 20	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xebf117…
07-28 19:23:31	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x75f00a…
07-27 22:54:18	will spy reach 800 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x030b2d…
07-27 02:58:45	will xauusd dip to 3300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf40bb8…
07-25 23:09:16	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc33399…
07-25 16:30:40	will ethereum dip to 1300 in july 2026 715	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x875091…
07-24 17:59:21	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5744c6…
07-24 01:50:27	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd214df…
07-22 10:24:16	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x753081…
07-20 19:45:48	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x61f235…
07-20 16:10:22	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x785447…
06-30 00:28:53	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfb7370…
06-29 01:29:31	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd38987…
06-28 17:52:34	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf8d4f9…
06-27 04:21:23	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$39	0xbf4f87…
05-31 17:51:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5c1cbc…
05-29 00:39:08	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xdc5037…
05-27 15:44:12	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x15560e…
05-26 00:38:22	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x569864…
05-21 02:23:07	Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8c9e11…
05-16 03:08:42	Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbd650b…
05-14 19:06:44	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6f42ef…
05-10 08:36:47	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf556c4…
05-09 09:58:02	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdd1d4d…
05-08 21:24:04	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0795e2…
05-06 18:21:49	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3c3431…
05-06 07:34:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x850ad5…
05-05 23:27:28	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd82747…
05-05 22:08:48	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc39bba…
05-05 15:05:06	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc39fc2…
05-05 12:01:36	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa2a7b4…
04-28 17:37:52	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x9b06f7…
04-27 18:56:20	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2a1424…
04-26 10:40:38	Will Solana dip to $50 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xaa7f24…
04-24 19:07:24	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x741561…
04-23 13:16:14	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x04c0ea…
04-22 10:15:48	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x7a0999…
04-21 20:45:56	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x76dca5…
04-19 15:40:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4bc1e9…
04-18 19:17:50	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x02ca52…