Reflecting-Man-Charlatan — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$296

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved (90d)

6,615

Trades (90d)

32,264

90,074 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$17.9K

$37.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 10-16 06:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 162 days

Categories

Other

100% 37% +$841

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 794 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on September 2?	22	$184	4,526	60	+4,466	No	-$177	09-02 00:02
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 1?	15	$123	3,066	0	+3,066	No	-$123	09-01 20:05
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on September 2?	6	$75	1,264	1,234	+30	No	+$24	09-02 07:35
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 30?	20	$56	375	375	+0	No	+$39	05-30 08:48
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on September 1?	41	$38	956	0	+956	No	-$38	09-01 20:58
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on September 2?	13	$36	891	0	+891	No	-$36	09-01 13:34
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on August 14?	53	$33	333	333	+0	No	+$11	08-14 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 24?	2	$30	30	30	+0	Yes	+$28	06-24 14:21
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?	9	$29	301	301	+0	Yes	+$19	06-02 07:57
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 20?	29	$28	269	239	+30	No	+$8	09-20 14:13
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29?	18	$28	298	298	+0	No	+$18	05-29 12:36
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29?	12	$26	200	200	+0	Yes	+$19	05-29 02:46
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4?	9	$26	100	100	+0	No	+$18	06-04 16:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 1?	13	$26	120	120	+0	No	+$17	08-01 03:18
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5?	44	$25	255	255	+0	No	+$15	06-05 04:59
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 24?	21	$24	240	180	+60	No	+$5	09-23 22:40
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on September 29?	21	$24	227	197	+30	No	+$6	09-29 14:04
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?	33	$23	172	171	+1	No	+$14	06-22 12:44
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on June 1?	50	$23	286	286	+0	No	+$12	06-01 00:16
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 23?	40	$23	240	240	+0	No	+$8	09-23 14:20
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 28?	12	$23	115	115	+0	No	+$16	05-28 10:51
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 2?	4	$22	60	60	+0	Yes	+$18	09-01 08:51
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?	27	$22	185	185	+0	No	+$9	06-01 06:08
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30?	18	$22	401	376	+25	No	+$9	05-30 02:41
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 23?	11	$22	245	215	+30	No	+$5	08-23 03:13
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 7?	4	$22	100	100	+0	No	+$16	06-06 15:32
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 3?	10	$21	359	359	+0	No	+$3	06-03 00:52
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29?	45	$21	220	220	+0	Yes	+$13	05-29 06:53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 8?	12	$21	100	95	+5	No	+$13	06-08 17:18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 16?	26	$21	166	166	+0	No	+$7	09-16 14:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 06:07:22	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xc64aa4…
10-15 19:38:41	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0xf89245…
10-15 19:38:40	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xd110c4…
10-15 19:37:10	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x238a54…
10-15 16:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x6fd7e5…
10-15 08:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0xcb55ca…
10-15 05:26:23	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x0edd04…
10-15 05:26:02	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xa6fe50…
10-15 05:25:44	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x0f0206…
10-15 05:25:31	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x397a6d…
10-15 05:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x53fd14…
10-15 04:39:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0xa19496…
10-15 04:32:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x2e8617…
10-15 04:27:01	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x03f13e…
10-15 04:26:44	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xbe9a6b…
10-15 03:07:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x996483…
10-15 02:13:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x92e7a6…
10-15 01:58:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0xdb854e…
10-15 00:33:50	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0x2d4f8d…
10-15 00:08:32	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x186b63…
10-14 23:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xd2ce8a…
10-14 21:57:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on October 14?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x3d2f0e…
10-14 20:46:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0x493a3f…
10-14 19:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xcad1a4…
10-14 19:16:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xd41189…
10-14 19:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0xbb87fd…
10-14 19:15:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x5dbbac…
10-14 18:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x8ddca5…
10-14 17:13:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xc30220…
10-14 17:12:21	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 16?	Yes	SELL	35	4¢	$1	0xe454e9…
10-14 17:12:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x3730e3…
10-14 17:00:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x59ac3f…
10-14 17:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x0cd4e5…
10-14 16:56:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0xb7b454…
10-14 16:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xfd0d2f…
10-14 16:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x06691d…
10-14 16:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x1fa2d4…
10-14 16:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0xa70330…
10-14 16:00:12	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	11	6¢	$1	0x99a456…
10-14 16:00:12	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0x15b2fb…
10-14 15:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x97d1ca…
10-14 15:53:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on October 14?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x32431c…
10-14 15:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xb45035…
10-14 15:16:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x5413e0…
10-14 15:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x5c96a3…
10-14 15:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 14?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x31d05c…
10-14 15:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0xccb5e9…
10-14 15:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xc20deb…
10-14 14:57:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x2ae457…
10-14 14:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x00ed7e…
10-14 14:53:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x452659…
10-14 14:50:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on October 14?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xe74020…
10-14 14:48:55	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x1698cf…
10-14 14:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x3b417b…
10-14 14:22:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x39a208…
10-14 14:20:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x1215d4…
10-14 14:16:41	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x91195e…
10-14 14:12:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x5f92d3…
10-14 14:06:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x6ae484…
10-14 13:58:41	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xf53446…
10-14 13:58:41	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xc4d4b5…
10-14 13:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	11	5¢	$1	0xfceb72…
10-14 13:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x43b527…
10-14 13:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 14?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x10849d…
10-14 13:30:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 14?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x660c5b…
10-14 13:27:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xcbc904…
10-14 13:14:42	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x568c37…
10-14 13:12:44	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on October 15?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x87c072…
10-14 13:12:23	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 15?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0x8eadb1…
10-14 13:07:53	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x655f88…
10-14 13:07:53	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x115dfb…
10-14 13:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x45ce5d…
10-14 13:07:50	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xd343d4…
10-14 13:07:48	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xa7b672…
10-14 13:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on October 16?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x20a561…
10-14 12:58:48	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 15?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xf00a14…
10-14 12:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 14?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0xc50082…
10-14 12:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x23d095…
10-14 12:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xe3124e…
10-14 12:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x039695…
10-14 12:17:32	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x72842c…
10-14 12:17:29	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 15?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x3a6917…
10-14 12:14:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x424299…
10-14 12:13:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xab9788…
10-14 12:11:17	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xa4aee0…
10-14 12:10:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x29ef0a…
10-14 12:06:17	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xfc9db6…
10-14 12:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xd5e598…
10-14 12:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x03f533…
10-14 11:59:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb3d342…
10-14 11:50:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xc17ea2…
10-14 11:44:46	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x4ee394…
10-14 11:38:28	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x7bdacd…
10-14 11:29:35	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xd358a3…
10-14 11:27:56	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xfddc51…
10-14 11:23:47	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0xed1867…
10-14 11:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0x5f9578…
10-14 11:14:22	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on October 14?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x2f8584…
10-14 11:03:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x2ded2e…
10-14 11:02:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x22855e…