Thin-Faith — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$408

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

75.5%

Resolved

138

Trades

188

lifetime

Volume

$7.52K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$161

1 position

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-11 19:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

97% 58% +$411

Politics

2% — —

Crypto

1% 67% +$2

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No		+192	$150	84¢	$161	+$11	09-09 16:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$498	267	267	+0	Yes	+$29	04-15 15:08
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	2	$361	236	236	+0	Team Spirit	+$111	08-23 10:20
cs2 furia vit 2026 02 08 game4	2	$357	211	211	+0	Vitality	+$65	02-08 20:18
Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?	2	$287	414	0	+414	Yes	+$126	09-05 18:59
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	1	$259	370	0	+370	Spirit	+$111	08-23 14:26
cs2 furia vit 2026 02 08 game3	2	$258	146	146	+0	Vitality	+$35	02-08 18:59
dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22	1	$257	325	0	+325	TEAM VISION	+$69	08-22 11:51
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	2	$200	289	0	+289	Team Spirit	-$200	08-23 12:42
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team total home 1pt5	3	$193	184	184	+0	Over	-$31	07-07 17:43
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	3	$183	263	0	+263	TEAM VISION	+$80	08-23 11:17
cs2 furia vit 2026 02 08 game2	2	$183	111	111	+0	Vitality	+$40	02-08 18:26
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	3	$160	239	0	+239	TEAM VISION	-$160	08-23 08:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	1	$150	192	0	+192	open	—	09-09 16:35
cs2 ice shk 2026 06 27 game2	3	$133	87	87	+0	Inner Circle Esports	+$41	06-27 17:20
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	2	$120	70	70	+0	MOUZ	+$20	09-05 18:56
cs2 vit navi 2026 04 17 map handicap away 1pt5	2	$120	70	70	+1	Vitality	+$20	04-17 21:53
cs2 ice shk 2026 06 27	2	$98	61	61	+0	Inner Circle Esports	+$24	06-27 17:20
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	2	$95	155	0	+155	Team Yandex	+$60	10-11 19:01
dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	6	$95	159	0	+159	TEAM VISION	-$95	08-20 06:44
dota2 liquid flc 2026 08 21 game2	1	$85	142	0	+142	Team Liquid	+$57	08-21 08:05
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)	2	$83	53	53	+0	Vitality	+$23	05-03 21:49
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$80	45	45	+0	Argentina	+$10	07-07 18:06
cs2 navi ast10 2026 02 14 total games 2pt5	2	$80	50	50	+0	Under	+$20	02-14 12:09
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	2	$70	44	44	+0	Yes	+$18	07-05 22:14
cs2 lgc fal2 2026 08 29	2	$65	109	0	+109	Team Falcons	-$65	08-29 19:00
dota2 ironwi ty 2026 08 15 game1	2	$64	39	39	+0	Iron Wing	+$14	08-15 14:14
dota2 boombo ts8 2026 08 22	2	$60	86	0	+86	Team Spirit	+$26	08-22 13:41
dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game2	2	$55	112	0	+112	Team Yandex	-$55	08-22 10:54
dota2 ngx ts8 2026 08 15 game1	3	$55	40	40	+0	Nigma Galaxy	+$25	08-15 14:14
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	1	$54	69	0	+69	France	+$15	07-09 20:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 19:01:19	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0xb1016a…
10-11 18:44:39	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	111	54¢	$60	0xb72b30…
09-27 13:33:12	dota2 ty navi 2026 09 27 game1	Natus Vincere	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0xedc335…
09-10 20:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x3c9061…
09-10 20:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x8339d6…
09-10 20:10:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xe89bd8…
09-09 16:35:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	192	78¢	$150	0x085bdd…
09-07 16:27:58	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs FUT Esports (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	FUT Esports	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x834e11…
09-05 18:59:37	Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	70¢	$137	0xd2ee66…
09-05 18:56:21	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x84a088…
09-05 18:55:00	Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	69¢	$150	0x58bf60…
09-05 18:28:37	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x8fc984…
09-02 21:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xdb1081…
08-29 19:00:54	cs2 lgc fal2 2026 08 29	Legacy	BUY	58	60¢	$35	0xc0d77e…
08-29 18:59:45	cs2 lgc fal2 2026 08 29	Legacy	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xee972d…
08-29 17:31:30	cs2 lgc fal2 2026 08 29 game2	Legacy	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x98168d…
08-29 14:51:52	cs2 fut lvg 2026 08 29	FUT Esports	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x945811…
08-27 16:57:34	cs2 fal2 lvg 2026 08 27 map handicap away 1pt5	Team Falcons	BUY	80	66¢	$53	0x6b2e74…
08-23 14:26:42	Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	Spirit	BUY	370	70¢	$259	0x5ca465…
08-23 12:42:45	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xc65a96…
08-23 12:41:36	Game 5: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xd18069…
08-23 12:30:37	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x0ccaae…
08-23 11:17:31	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xc234a5…
08-23 11:17:18	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x1e77a7…
08-23 11:17:18	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	TEAM VISION	BUY	97	69¢	$67	0x1092b2…
08-23 10:20:42	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	Team Spirit	SELL	236	100¢	$236	0x686bda…
08-23 09:33:51	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	236	53¢	$125	0xa78448…
08-23 08:24:43	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x831db0…
08-23 08:07:58	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x2cfdce…
08-23 08:00:36	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x5d2b49…
08-23 02:31:25	dota2 ty ts8 2026 08 22 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	80	65¢	$52	0x3c2a6f…
08-22 14:43:04	dota2 boombo ts8 2026 08 22 game2	Team Spirit	BUY	84	48¢	$40	0x4ba13f…
08-22 13:41:09	dota2 boombo ts8 2026 08 22	Team Spirit	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xbe7f51…
08-22 13:40:39	dota2 boombo ts8 2026 08 22	Team Spirit	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x36a7b4…
08-22 13:36:15	dota2 boombo ts8 2026 08 22 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0xdef799…
08-22 11:51:40	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22	TEAM VISION	BUY	325	79¢	$257	0x3a7e55…
08-22 10:54:36	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game2	TEAM VISION	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0xe82550…
08-22 10:40:48	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game2	TEAM VISION	BUY	68	37¢	$25	0xb84e1a…
08-22 09:08:46	dota2 vsn2 ty 2026 08 22 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x39da8c…
08-21 19:34:37	cs2 vit ts7 2026 08 21	Spirit	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x89c136…
08-21 18:11:46	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xec7c74…
08-21 18:03:40	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x160f24…
08-21 16:25:37	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21 game2	Team Yandex	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0xa9621f…
08-21 15:47:52	dota2 ty ngx 2026 08 21 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0xc673ad…
08-21 13:03:36	dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21	TEAM VISION	BUY	70	69¢	$48	0x332fcb…
08-21 11:07:34	dota2 ts8 vsn2 2026 08 21 game1	TEAM VISION	BUY	53	66¢	$35	0x3c659f…
08-21 09:17:24	dota2 liquid flc 2026 08 21	Team Liquid	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x07e419…
08-21 08:05:19	dota2 liquid flc 2026 08 21 game2	Team Liquid	BUY	142	60¢	$85	0x9ca1fb…
08-21 06:32:42	dota2 liquid flc 2026 08 21 game1	Team Liquid	BUY	75	53¢	$40	0x9a8e69…
08-20 16:21:13	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20	Team Falcons	BUY	58	61¢	$35	0xa1140d…
08-20 14:52:37	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20 game2	Team Falcons	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x4d4f33…
08-20 14:04:24	dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20 game1	Team Falcons	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x83bb50…
08-20 10:58:39	dota2 liquid ty 2026 08 20 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x3e1a17…
08-20 09:41:18	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20	TEAM VISION	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x5ca005…
08-20 07:49:52	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game2	TEAM VISION	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x384500…
08-20 06:44:27	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x81063d…
08-20 06:40:18	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x1af1db…
08-20 06:36:00	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0xebbdcc…
08-20 06:34:46	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x7bc43c…
08-20 06:34:27	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x154651…
08-20 06:25:09	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0x91d25d…
08-16 10:45:46	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16	LGD Gaming	BUY	97	38¢	$37	0x5e9b51…
08-16 09:38:34	dota2 lgd ty 2026 08 16 game2	LGD Gaming	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x3f2bdd…
08-15 14:42:39	dota2 ngx ts8 2026 08 15	Team Spirit	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0xd7e4ca…
08-15 14:14:40	dota2 ironwi ty 2026 08 15 game1	Iron Wing	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x823a5f…
08-15 14:14:37	dota2 ngx ts8 2026 08 15 game1	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x559d35…
08-15 13:44:43	dota2 ngx ts8 2026 08 15 game1	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xaddffc…
08-15 13:24:51	dota2 ngx ts8 2026 08 15 game1	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xbf8a8a…
08-15 12:14:27	dota2 ironwi ty 2026 08 15 game1	Iron Wing	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x25fa65…
08-15 10:55:49	dota2 boombo flc 2026 08 15 game1	BoomBoys	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0xa92e0f…
08-14 13:38:31	dota2 aur1 ty 2026 08 14	Aurora	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0x1358a8…
08-14 11:56:39	dota2 aur1 ty 2026 08 14 game2	Team Yandex	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xe87a4a…
08-14 03:28:48	dota2 ts8 aur1 2026 08 13 game2	Aurora	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x073a08…
08-14 02:54:30	dota2 ts8 aur1 2026 08 13 game1	Aurora	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x9567c7…
08-13 12:43:13	dota2 boombo ironwi 2026 08 13	BoomBoys	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x3606e2…
08-13 04:54:42	dota2 flc lgd 2026 08 12 game2	Team Falcons	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xf86b7c…
08-13 03:55:06	dota2 flc lgd 2026 08 12 game1	Team Falcons	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x3d243f…
08-13 03:19:09	dota2 flc lgd 2026 08 12 game1	Team Falcons	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x78e37e…
07-19 19:41:57	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x375c21…
07-19 19:41:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0xe23e81…
07-15 19:00:01	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x0d7dee…
07-15 18:59:52	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0x895c52…
07-15 18:59:32	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x4b690f…
07-14 19:04:34	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	44	56¢	$25	0x1096b1…
07-14 19:04:28	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xacc860…
07-12 03:20:43	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x729f5d…
07-11 21:03:14	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xfef737…
07-11 21:03:05	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x10b69d…
07-10 19:39:28	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team total away 0pt5	Over	SELL	18	49¢	$9	0x5bf913…
07-10 19:39:08	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x41e747…
07-10 19:32:25	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xfd81d3…
07-09 20:01:11	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	69	78¢	$54	0xa17cb7…
07-07 20:15:53	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x3b3d86…
07-07 18:06:26	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x020171…
07-07 17:54:19	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0x7a63b6…
07-07 17:43:49	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team total home 1pt5	Over	SELL	184	44¢	$81	0x98347d…
07-06 21:17:58	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0x2385be…
07-06 21:17:32	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 extra time	No	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0xcf0c7f…
07-06 21:10:02	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	161	61¢	$98	0x75e0c3…
07-06 09:57:40	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 extra time	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x84b491…