Careless-Initialize — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$48

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.3%

Resolved

160

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$17.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$91

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 10-23 01:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 81% -$20

Other

36% 48% -$22

Sports

11% 29% -$1

Politics

7% 50% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	4	$460	230	230	+0	No	$0	05-26 03:45
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$288	145	145	+0	No	$0	02-13 11:58
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$288	144	144	+0	No	$0	02-10 09:19
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	2	$275	138	138	+0	No	$0	04-25 10:20
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$269	135	135	+0	No	$0	04-20 11:19
will thomas detry win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$266	133	133	+0	No	$0	03-03 04:53
will charl schwartzel win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$266	133	133	+0	No	$0	03-03 05:18
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$266	133	133	+0	No	$0	03-04 06:25
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$266	133	133	+0	No	$0	03-04 06:45
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$265	133	133	+0	No	$0	03-15 10:48
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$261	131	131	+0	No	$0	03-20 05:53
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$252	126	126	+0	No	$0	04-26 03:59
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?	2	$252	126	126	+0	No	$0	04-05 07:48
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$250	125	125	+0	No	$0	05-14 05:33
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	2	$250	126	126	+0	open	—	05-16 07:33
will sentimental value win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	03-12 09:05
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$244	122	122	+0	No	$0	05-14 05:14
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$240	120	120	+0	No	$0	05-09 08:29
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$240	120	120	+0	No	$0	05-06 12:02
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	2	$240	121	121	+0	open	—	05-07 06:29
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$228	115	115	+0	open	—	05-20 03:49
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$228	115	115	+0	open	—	05-20 04:14
Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	2	$224	113	113	+0	No	$0	05-26 04:11
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$220	110	110	+0	No	$0	05-27 09:56
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$220	110	110	+0	No	$0	05-27 10:32
Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$220	110	110	+0	No	$0	05-11 07:49
Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$220	110	110	+0	No	$0	05-11 08:08
will the price of ethereum be between 2100 2200 on february 25	1	$147	147	0	+147	No	+$0	02-25 10:28
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on february 24	1	$147	147	0	+147	No	+$0	02-24 08:25
bitcoin above 64k on february 22	1	$144	145	0	+145	Yes	+$0	02-22 09:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 01:51:32	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of October?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xcc6d7d…
10-23 01:47:14	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by October 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9e2c5c…
10-23 01:46:33	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by October 31?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xdc4dcd…
09-27 06:06:03	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $290 end of September?	Yes	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0x479bf6…
08-31 22:01:48	Will BNB reach $800 in August?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x375978…
07-10 05:51:46	msft above 440 on july 10 2026	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0xb4b18d…
07-10 05:47:10	mlb mil pit 2026 07 10	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x57630e…
06-30 09:25:53	will rklb reach 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0x8428b6…
06-01 07:35:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x62f7b2…
06-01 07:28:43	Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs	Donstu Esports	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x5b185b…
05-31 06:43:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xc3e902…
05-31 06:38:49	Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs	OG	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0x5981bc…
05-31 06:32:45	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on June 1?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x78c67b…
05-30 09:45:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	1,600	0¢	$3	0x3032f6…
05-30 08:24:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x127f6d…
05-30 06:02:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0xc3ecf8…
05-30 04:23:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	700	0¢	$1	0x257e8e…
05-30 03:53:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Yes	BUY	2,349	0¢	$5	0xa8dbb3…
05-30 03:51:27	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa6e6b6…
05-28 06:39:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x450456…
05-28 06:28:58	Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x202f66…
05-27 10:35:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x58085d…
05-27 10:32:05	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xa967dc…
05-27 10:03:18	Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs	9z	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x267f43…
05-27 09:57:44	Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x2f9314…
05-27 09:56:28	Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x63ce6c…
05-27 08:59:01	Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x27d3d8…
05-26 04:22:19	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x607679…
05-26 04:11:21	Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	113	99¢	$112	0x5b0a5b…
05-26 03:55:09	Counter-Strike: M80 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Finals Playoffs	Iowa Stormboar	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x1604f5…
05-26 03:47:19	Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0xf547c7…
05-26 03:45:39	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x045bfe…
05-26 03:30:01	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x92a284…
05-24 11:10:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0xc5a57d…
05-24 10:55:11	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x5ad924…
05-23 12:01:50	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xc7be55…
05-23 11:55:39	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x3e54db…
05-20 04:16:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x3e7883…
05-20 04:14:01	Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0xd1ca37…
05-20 04:00:41	Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Mary Stoiana vs Matilde Jorge	Matilde Jorge	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x4cda29…
05-20 03:51:26	Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0x5b38c2…
05-20 03:49:36	Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	115	99¢	$114	0x0bd863…
05-20 03:17:43	Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0xc3be92…
05-19 07:20:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x5873fc…
05-19 07:17:06	Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xc01a29…
05-18 12:59:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x30ea5c…
05-17 11:43:01	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?	No	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0xa283d8…
05-16 07:41:49	Will Croatia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x266eae…
05-16 07:33:36	Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x89de99…
05-16 07:01:25	Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$125	0x2ec4de…
05-15 09:15:45	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $570 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0x054360…
05-14 05:47:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x1f99a1…
05-14 05:38:44	Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbd2a00…
05-14 05:33:36	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0x07ffb5…
05-14 05:17:07	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x4946d7…
05-14 05:14:30	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x01d10a…
05-14 04:16:46	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x3cb8e1…
05-12 19:57:06	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 13?	No	BUY	133	94¢	$125	0xe689a3…
05-12 11:48:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x2c40a9…
05-11 08:11:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	117	100¢	$117	0x17dc0b…
05-11 08:08:17	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x7ee023…
05-11 08:03:44	Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B	GamerLegion	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0xe5ba69…
05-11 07:51:02	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xdd2815…
05-11 07:49:17	Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xa34bbd…
05-11 07:03:14	Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x78a9d5…
05-10 05:50:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	Yes	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0xd0b929…
05-09 08:35:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x43b5bc…
05-09 08:29:08	Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0xd9af7d…
05-09 07:41:33	Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x3562ec…
05-08 04:04:23	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x852e58…
05-07 06:34:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x689e4c…
05-07 06:29:12	Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	121	99¢	$120	0x1517aa…
05-07 06:13:04	Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x836656…
05-07 06:10:09	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x7c7fd5…
05-07 05:09:38	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xd35bb2…
05-06 12:09:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x362ff7…
05-06 12:05:50	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert	Yulia Starodubtseva	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x7ba5b6…
05-06 12:02:40	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x83b215…
05-06 11:12:40	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x5e1138…
05-05 08:30:06	Will XRP dip to $1.35 on May 5?	No	BUY	130	98¢	$127	0x40bb94…
05-04 09:18:26	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 4?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xc780b4…
05-03 03:05:36	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 3?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xed57f6…
05-02 04:05:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xb03204…
05-01 10:11:40	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x91b536…
04-30 08:38:14	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x30f462…
04-29 07:31:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0xfa6398…
04-28 09:29:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	127	99¢	$126	0x5c149d…
04-27 08:42:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xce1670…
04-27 08:07:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x5e91fb…
04-26 04:11:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x4dba7c…
04-26 03:59:36	Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0x28a891…
04-26 03:42:54	Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x0f83a6…
04-26 03:37:44	LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	CTBC Flying Oyster	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0x4e0114…
04-25 11:47:56	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x6c077c…
04-25 10:30:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	1,340	0¢	$3	0x13a6a1…
04-25 10:26:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x6649f4…
04-25 10:20:42	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	SELL	138	100¢	$138	0x87c82e…
04-25 09:34:22	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x4f1002…
04-24 13:06:38	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x58d8d6…
04-23 08:32:54	ethereum above 2100 on april 23	Yes	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0x30401e…