Mortified-Millstone — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1.42K

Unrealized P&L

+$50

Hit rate

27.4%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

472 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$2.30K

$18.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$25

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 10-21 23:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Politics

41% 45% +$1,636

Other

35% 23% -$3,490

Crypto

21% 50% -$187

Sports

2% 0% -$222

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		-580	-$75	4¢	$-25	+$50	05-03 12:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	35	$4.0K	35,437	2,382	+33,055	No	-$183	06-03 16:38
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	19	$1.6K	2,770	2,712	+58	No	+$780	06-14 18:45
iran closes its airspace by june 15	22	$1.6K	1,516	1,516	+0	Yes	+$697	06-07 20:57
iran closes its airspace by june 8	17	$916	992	992	+0	Yes	+$234	06-07 22:31
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	8	$857	1,100	700	+400	Yes	-$69	06-04 01:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	11	$561	440	440	-0	No	+$241	06-21 15:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$543	336	336	+0	No	-$15	06-21 15:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	1	$531	1,434	0	+1,434	No	-$531	09-13 19:23
will wti reach 100 in september 2026 from september 12	2	$410	217	217	+0	Yes	+$24	09-13 22:01
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	10	$376	53,288	0	+53,288	Yes	-$376	05-03 12:04
will wti reach 115 in september 2026	4	$369	1,728	0	+1,728	No	-$369	09-15 11:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	2	$304	159	159	+0	No	-$2	09-21 22:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	8	$277	11,627	627	+11,000	Yes	-$12	06-17 19:22
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	20	$219	1,170	1,170	+0	No	-$67	06-24 22:19
wti closes above 93 on june 8 2026	3	$213	470	0	+470	No	-$213	06-08 11:56
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	5	$202	592	592	+0	No	-$12	06-08 11:58
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$198	2,500	2,500	+0	No	-$2	06-04 20:49
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$189	2,300	2,300	+0	No	+$5	06-22 19:48
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$186	7,199	0	+7,199	No	-$186	07-09 19:38
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	2	$185	100	100	+0	No	+$3	06-05 07:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	15	$172	875	195	+680	No	-$141	06-15 00:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	4	$163	1,226	0	+1,226	Yes	-$163	10-21 23:12
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	4	$150	158	158	+0	Yes	+$90	07-14 00:21
will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	17	$150	1,311	0	+1,311	No	-$150	09-27 00:39
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	4	$148	184	0	+184	Yes	+$36	06-17 22:14
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$143	1,039	0	+1,039	No	-$143	03-29 20:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	1	$139	150	0	+150	Yes	+$11	09-14 14:04
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	2	$138	210	30	+180	Yes	+$100	06-17 22:10
will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	7	$131	457	0	+457	No	-$131	06-25 22:35
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	1	$130	578	0	+578	France	-$130	07-09 19:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 23:12:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x74c878…
10-21 23:11:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x84b18f…
10-21 23:11:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0xc27782…
10-21 23:10:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	632	19¢	$120	0x4afcf8…
10-21 23:09:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1,216	13¢	$162	0x6d712c…
09-27 00:39:23	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	44	5¢	$2	0xd142ac…
09-26 21:33:42	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0x0cfe2e…
09-22 03:04:08	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0x255d94…
09-22 03:04:06	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	103	12¢	$12	0x19e739…
09-22 03:04:06	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	103	12¢	$12	0x0172b2…
09-22 03:04:05	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	103	12¢	$12	0xc0d9ff…
09-22 03:04:03	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	103	12¢	$12	0x23dcfa…
09-22 02:56:59	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xdc0bf8…
09-22 02:52:50	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0xdb13a3…
09-22 02:43:56	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xe3fc16…
09-22 02:28:50	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	45	12¢	$5	0xcb03f0…
09-22 01:27:57	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x1c102f…
09-22 01:24:01	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x998663…
09-22 01:21:06	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	44	12¢	$5	0x914f90…
09-21 23:20:27	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	45	12¢	$5	0xeda778…
09-21 22:50:10	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	163	12¢	$20	0x86a75f…
09-21 22:46:43	will wti reach 105 in september 2026 from september 16	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0x5fca85…
09-21 22:46:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	SELL	159	95¢	$151	0x79f787…
09-15 20:32:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	BUY	159	96¢	$153	0xe178ed…
09-15 11:59:09	will wti reach 115 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	351	21¢	$74	0x886cd2…
09-14 22:38:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Yes	BUY	32	21¢	$7	0x97400d…
09-14 14:04:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$139	0x217e3d…
09-13 22:11:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$26	0x03e351…
09-13 22:01:51	will wti reach 100 in september 2026 from september 12	Yes	SELL	217	100¢	$217	0x795967…
09-13 19:24:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	Yes	BUY	930	1¢	$12	0x763a48…
09-13 19:23:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	1,434	37¢	$531	0xed6d1e…
09-13 18:23:01	will wti reach 100 in september 2026 from september 12	Yes	BUY	217	89¢	$193	0x1de736…
09-13 18:21:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Yes	BUY	941	22¢	$205	0x2e6dd5…
09-13 18:18:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xb1599d…
09-13 18:18:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	Yes	BUY	2,802	2¢	$61	0xf756a8…
09-13 18:16:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Yes	BUY	146	4¢	$6	0xd5c69c…
09-13 16:52:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	Yes	BUY	137	5¢	$7	0x1be8a8…
09-13 16:51:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Yes	BUY	405	20¢	$83	0xdbf708…
07-25 03:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xf3fe00…
07-20 20:38:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	189	22¢	$42	0x51846c…
07-20 20:37:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	28	22¢	$6	0xaa4860…
07-14 20:43:08	Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	160	6¢	$10	0xc0674f…
07-14 01:15:58	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xe58281…
07-14 01:15:53	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	170	4¢	$7	0xf47946…
07-14 01:04:38	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf27ee3…
07-14 00:48:40	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	68	4¢	$3	0x2ffb7d…
07-14 00:47:17	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x9c98bc…
07-14 00:37:55	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xaaa30b…
07-14 00:31:40	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x9d52e8…
07-14 00:30:11	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x48a6e6…
07-14 00:22:43	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0xea40c6…
07-14 00:21:32	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	76	100¢	$76	0xb2f069…
07-09 22:06:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	144	16¢	$23	0x8459da…
07-09 19:38:58	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,188	3¢	$70	0x33dda8…
07-09 19:14:37	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	578	22¢	$130	0x25b212…
07-08 15:20:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0x0f9afa…
07-08 15:19:37	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	41	63¢	$26	0x1a7be4…
07-08 09:11:23	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x013c21…
07-08 08:43:49	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	34	26¢	$9	0x2b0348…
07-08 08:40:17	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	42	30¢	$13	0xed190d…
07-08 08:40:16	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xa3d17d…
07-08 08:40:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x2a86a6…
07-08 08:39:58	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	22	67¢	$15	0x5cca7f…
07-08 08:39:10	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x4272b0…
07-08 08:38:14	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xd74161…
07-08 08:38:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xa0772b…
07-08 08:37:38	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x3d2238…
07-08 08:37:13	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	41	45¢	$18	0x31ccda…
07-06 22:11:23	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	86	1¢	$1	0x5b7fbc…
07-04 22:28:55	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0x614e8e…
07-04 21:44:50	Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x162bad…
07-04 21:44:46	Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	238	4¢	$10	0x4e2f96…
07-04 21:44:37	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	No	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0xe2eff9…
07-04 09:24:07	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,706	3¢	$44	0x59330c…
07-04 08:31:28	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	Morocco	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x4e9a68…
07-04 08:30:05	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0xcd23f5…
07-04 08:13:43	Will Morocco win the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x8d2cfa…
07-04 08:11:29	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x2bd455…
06-29 17:03:22	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xed23c2…
06-27 23:44:11	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x1db04b…
06-27 23:42:49	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0236dc…
06-27 23:35:29	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	656	0¢	$1	0x7af94e…
06-27 23:30:38	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0xd5bf72…
06-27 20:33:44	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0xb60f26…
06-27 20:31:55	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0xdbce7e…
06-27 20:24:40	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x7b6991…
06-27 11:40:10	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0x0539f5…
06-26 11:57:47	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$3	0x611e45…
06-26 11:49:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$1	0x5b2c2a…
06-26 11:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xca312f…
06-26 11:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xca21ad…
06-26 11:33:14	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	SELL	64	13¢	$8	0xdf581d…
06-26 09:07:46	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x07796c…
06-26 05:23:10	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	Yes	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0x023adf…
06-26 03:58:14	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0x9920b7…
06-26 03:42:53	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0xda4d40…
06-26 02:33:47	will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of june from june 23	Yes	BUY	36	6¢	$2	0x1e282c…
06-25 23:30:20	fifwc tun nld 2026 06 25 spread away 4pt5	Netherlands	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x2f8f83…
06-25 23:19:13	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x73dc9a…
06-25 23:14:26	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x78ba7e…