Oblong-Dune-Likelihood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$161

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

35.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$554

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-20

last 05-30 17:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

71% 17% -$83

Politics

28% 15% -$68

Sports

2% 0% -$10

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-30).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?	3	$114	79	79	+0	Yes	+$44	05-20 19:51
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	2	$40	40	40	+0	cancelled	$0	05-20 18:05
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	2	$35	26	26	+0	No	-$3	05-30 14:24
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?	2	$35	67	67	+0	No	-$5	05-30 14:24
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?	3	$32	354	0	+354	No	-$32	05-20 19:58
Iran leadership change by June 30?	2	$29	143	143	+0	No	-$11	05-30 14:24
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer	2	$28	23	23	+0	Yes	+$18	05-30 16:22
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$20	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-20 18:36
World Championships: Austria vs. Switzerland	1	$20	250	0	+250	Switzerland	-$20	05-20 13:14
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	1	$20	45	0	+45	Yes	-$20	05-20 13:13
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	1	$20	51	0	+51	No	-$20	05-30 14:26
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	2	$12	56	56	+0	open	—	05-30 14:24
Will Trump say "Epstein" in May?	2	$11	30	30	+0	No	-$9	05-30 14:24
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$11	38	38	+0	Yes	+$1	05-21 14:24
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	1	$11	37	0	+37	No	-$11	05-30 14:27
Will Trump say "Pool" or "Pond" this week?	1	$11	17	0	+17	Yes	-$11	05-21 14:23
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	2	$10	31	31	+0	No	-$10	05-30 17:40
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	1	$10	28	0	+28	No	-$10	05-20 20:23
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?	1	$10	37	0	+37	No	-$10	05-30 16:24
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?	1	$10	58	0	+58	No	-$10	05-30 16:25
Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times on Thursday?	1	$10	27	0	+27	Yes	-$10	05-20 20:16
Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week?	1	$10	17	0	+17	No	-$10	05-21 14:21
Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May?	3	$5	26	26	+0	No	-$5	05-30 14:24
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC?	1	$5	100	0	+100	No	-$5	05-20 19:53
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC?	1	$5	30	0	+30	No	-$5	05-20 20:27
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC?	1	$5	38	0	+38	No	-$5	05-20 20:01
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	1	$5	24	0	+24	Over	-$5	05-20 19:58
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 3 Aston Villa FC?	1	$5	23	0	+23	Yes	+$18	05-20 19:56
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	1	$3	31	0	+31	Yes	-$3	05-21 14:26
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	1	$3	26	0	+26	Yes	-$3	05-21 14:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 17:40:29	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0xf89176…
05-30 17:32:47	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	16	17¢	$3	0xb26b43…
05-30 16:25:52	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0xe5c1b0…
05-30 16:24:32	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x3ea1a4…
05-30 16:22:40	Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xd609a6…
05-30 14:27:06	Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	37	30¢	$11	0xae4ebd…
05-30 14:26:50	Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xaabae6…
05-30 14:26:38	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xfc24d8…
05-30 14:26:03	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x83390c…
05-30 14:24:36	Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x7f3853…
05-30 14:24:27	Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x0e3ad1…
05-30 14:24:25	Will Trump say "Epstein" in May?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x96df47…
05-30 14:24:22	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	SELL	56	13¢	$7	0xc859c3…
05-30 14:24:20	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	143	6¢	$9	0xc30cb5…
05-30 14:24:18	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	60¢	$16	0x8e5cd6…
05-30 14:24:16	Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?	No	SELL	67	22¢	$15	0x5a1e41…
05-21 14:27:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?	No	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xf42c4e…
05-21 14:26:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026?	No	BUY	31	11¢	$3	0xbd2ae9…
05-21 14:24:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	38	16¢	$6	0x81072e…
05-21 14:23:07	Will Trump say "Pool" or "Pond" this week?	No	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x3b7b65…
05-21 14:22:01	Will Trump say "Epstein" in May?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x94ac5f…
05-21 14:21:12	Will Trump say "Mamdani" this week?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xac3fa7…
05-21 09:22:25	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xe904c9…
05-20 20:30:06	Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May?	Yes	BUY	26	20¢	$5	0x30ddf4…
05-20 20:27:25	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x428f6e…
05-20 20:23:55	Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x4fe19d…
05-20 20:22:33	Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x88a7bd…
05-20 20:16:01	Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times on Thursday?	No	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0xb76e73…
05-20 20:04:58	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xd2a8f8…
05-20 20:02:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xeb6ea3…
05-20 20:02:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	No	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x5c939b…
05-20 20:01:44	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xa73d58…
05-20 19:58:50	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0x0c5919…
05-20 19:58:00	SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xefc6cf…
05-20 19:56:01	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 3 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x1857dd…
05-20 19:53:35	Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xcdc0f7…
05-20 19:51:49	Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd2bbf8…
05-20 19:51:17	Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0x645841…
05-20 18:48:38	Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	79	44¢	$35	0x7f6d26…
05-20 18:43:42	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0xa7111a…
05-20 18:37:03	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x7606b9…
05-20 18:36:39	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x5f3370…
05-20 18:07:52	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	72¢	$19	0x417d76…
05-20 18:05:58	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0x35a7b9…
05-20 18:03:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x3fe068…
05-20 13:22:23	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x9ce5db…
05-20 13:19:56	Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?	No	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x175633…
05-20 13:14:37	World Championships: Austria vs. Switzerland	Austria	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x6de89f…
05-20 13:13:32	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0xd60f24…
05-20 13:10:51	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x87d3cf…