Broken-Win — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$224

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,386

lifetime

Volume

$581.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$172

Open exposure

$1.08K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-18 19:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

68% 100% +$84

Other

17% 100% +$140

Sports

9% — —

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+4,136	$804	18¢	$765	$-39	07-08 14:51
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes		+1,450	$304	22¢	$319	+$14	07-17 12:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	32	$48.6K	48,503	45,618	+2,884	open	—	06-17 13:30
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	37	$25.3K	12,900	12,900	+0	open	—	02-25 07:32
will trump post ufc on truth social this week 20260622154014267	3	$24.0K	12,500	12,500	+0	open	—	06-28 20:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	68	$22.9K	16,396	16,396	+0	open	—	03-01 04:13
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	39	$22.2K	13,483	13,483	+0	open	—	07-07 07:26
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	55	$18.6K	9,761	9,761	+0	open	—	04-16 01:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	13	$17.9K	10,620	10,620	+0	open	—	02-27 10:02
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	45	$16.9K	10,526	9,676	+850	open	—	02-28 10:17
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	35	$16.7K	9,100	9,100	+0	open	—	03-04 16:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	15	$14.2K	9,410	9,410	+0	open	—	04-08 01:25
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	19	$14.1K	7,942	7,942	+0	open	—	02-28 15:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	49	$14.0K	105,126	45,764	+59,362	open	—	06-26 20:54
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$13.9K	7,600	7,600	+0	open	—	02-27 14:06
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	6	$13.3K	6,750	6,750	+0	open	—	02-27 04:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	21	$12.6K	7,551	7,551	+0	open	—	04-09 18:56
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	3	$11.4K	6,040	6,040	+0	open	—	02-22 08:18
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	10	$10.1K	6,580	6,580	+0	open	—	06-30 01:07
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	46	$9.3K	10,163	10,163	+0	open	—	03-06 01:05
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	41	$9.0K	4,864	4,864	+0	open	—	02-27 00:03
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	11	$9.0K	5,430	5,216	+214	open	—	06-11 05:39
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	12	$7.8K	4,140	4,140	+0	open	—	02-20 20:07
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 1 334	8	$7.7K	4,072	4,072	+0	open	—	03-01 14:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	72	$7.6K	6,570	6,570	+0	open	—	04-21 19:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$7.4K	3,800	3,800	+0	open	—	04-12 12:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$7.3K	5,430	5,430	+0	open	—	06-17 04:11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	37	$7.1K	15,716	17,086	-1,370	open	—	06-02 15:08
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	25	$7.1K	6,577	6,577	+0	open	—	01-30 04:08
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 12 2026	8	$6.2K	3,200	3,200	+0	open	—	04-13 06:32
Will the US strike Somalia next?	78	$6.2K	16,000	5,003	+10,997	open	—	01-10 21:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	5	$6.1K	4,800	4,800	+0	open	—	06-18 21:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 19:28:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	4,252	5¢	$204	0x3fd693…
07-18 19:24:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	2,008	5¢	$92	0x9b0d29…
07-17 12:38:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,450	21¢	$304	0x57f21b…
07-16 08:45:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	9,100	2¢	$200	0x51add4…
07-15 17:45:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,920	17¢	$326	0x79ccfd…
07-15 14:33:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	640	18¢	$115	0xef33e1…
07-12 02:06:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	160	11¢	$18	0xccc291…
07-12 02:06:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x8a6e0d…
07-12 02:05:47	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2,085	10¢	$213	0x813f66…
07-12 00:41:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	1,501	56¢	$835	0x35152c…
07-12 00:40:19	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	307	54¢	$166	0xb6533d…
07-11 22:22:52	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	587	4¢	$21	0x6a7a90…
07-11 22:20:56	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2,283	9¢	$205	0x4fc2da…
07-11 12:08:08	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	11,916	8¢	$1,001	0xffdf7d…
07-11 12:05:16	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xbc73a9…
07-11 12:05:16	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x8f9a1e…
07-11 12:04:49	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4faaa8…
07-09 18:46:38	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	2,824	8¢	$226	0xa5cb49…
07-09 08:35:10	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,508	14¢	$207	0xe56038…
07-09 08:35:10	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	692	14¢	$95	0x8dbf80…
07-09 07:45:37	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x3d0f3f…
07-09 07:44:01	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	36	13¢	$5	0x50243d…
07-09 07:31:23	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	181	13¢	$23	0x0667d3…
07-09 07:12:31	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	25	13¢	$3	0x9dfdeb…
07-09 02:14:34	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,400	19¢	$270	0xa87bfe…
07-09 01:56:10	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,822	20¢	$355	0xc1218f…
07-09 01:52:10	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x44ba8a…
07-09 01:52:08	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	3,700	20¢	$721	0x3d8fd4…
07-09 00:54:53	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,059	20¢	$206	0x5b1889…
07-09 00:52:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,107	20¢	$216	0x5e51cf…
07-08 23:13:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	1,250	3¢	$40	0xc4fa16…
07-08 22:13:35	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$100	0x097033…
07-08 22:07:56	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	269	21¢	$56	0x147db2…
07-08 21:48:35	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$101	0x1ae49b…
07-08 19:16:50	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	650	16¢	$101	0x4846e5…
07-08 17:09:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	1,160	14¢	$157	0x42d95b…
07-08 14:51:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,120	18¢	$202	0x067c02…
07-08 08:23:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,426	14¢	$340	0xb2ed6d…
07-08 08:21:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	134	14¢	$19	0x64dbe5…
07-07 07:26:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0xa60d18…
07-07 07:26:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6,696	82¢	$5,491	0xa5bc4d…
07-07 07:25:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xfa9f02…
07-07 07:25:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x425354…
07-07 07:25:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x1e1f5c…
07-07 03:48:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6,737	83¢	$5,592	0x11a50c…
07-07 03:48:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x5dc91f…
07-07 03:47:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0x21635c…
07-07 00:42:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,760	58¢	$1,021	0x935823…
07-06 23:27:23	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	16¢	$6	0x6726c6…
07-06 22:48:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	5,873	86¢	$5,051	0x4f9133…
07-06 22:47:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,050	86¢	$903	0x94fa29…
07-06 21:51:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,650	85¢	$1,402	0xdc48f6…
07-06 21:51:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	333	85¢	$283	0x7b04cc…
07-06 21:51:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x3507c2…
07-06 21:51:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x3258c8…
07-06 21:51:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x68cdea…
07-06 21:51:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xed6a55…
07-06 21:51:07	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0x879429…
07-06 21:51:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	125	85¢	$106	0x815099…
07-06 21:50:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xf0db65…
07-06 21:50:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xb1c650…
07-06 21:50:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x61bc4a…
07-06 21:50:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	31	85¢	$26	0x324e2d…
07-06 21:50:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x96efbc…
07-06 21:50:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x38b396…
07-06 21:50:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x80c3bf…
07-06 21:50:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x786c62…
07-06 21:50:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0x94574d…
07-06 21:50:49	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x79d939…
07-06 21:50:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xc832c3…
07-06 21:50:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xadd98c…
07-06 21:50:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	120	85¢	$102	0x45448e…
07-06 21:50:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	885	85¢	$752	0xb7178e…
07-06 21:50:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	166	85¢	$141	0x4e0f47…
07-06 21:50:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	123	85¢	$104	0x15b1e3…
07-06 21:50:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	910	85¢	$773	0x2999d0…
07-06 21:50:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	23	85¢	$19	0x773169…
07-06 21:50:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0xf1e944…
07-06 21:49:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	250	85¢	$212	0xa61a2c…
07-06 18:40:50	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	16¢	$17	0x8c1c11…
07-06 12:06:10	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	482	16¢	$77	0xe7778f…
07-04 19:50:04	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1,060	19¢	$201	0xd0be98…
07-04 18:55:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x246661…
07-03 22:02:07	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,209	21¢	$254	0xeb0575…
07-03 21:58:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0x377046…
07-03 21:55:02	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,178	21¢	$247	0xa42a2d…
07-01 08:46:50	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	17	60¢	$10	0x7c14db…
07-01 08:46:40	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xf63f7c…
07-01 08:41:47	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x9773c9…
07-01 08:35:29	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xe2f731…
06-30 21:43:46	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xe7d703…
06-30 19:21:04	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	400	67¢	$268	0xa2f6f2…
06-30 17:10:35	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	968	80¢	$774	0x9fdfe0…
06-30 16:21:17	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x8670d5…
06-30 10:48:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	480	4¢	$21	0xb0946b…
06-30 10:47:08	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	77	5¢	$4	0x2f27a1…
06-30 10:46:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0xadfaa1…
06-30 10:46:07	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xa372bf…
06-30 10:45:58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	235	5¢	$13	0xf3b0fb…
06-30 10:45:52	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	184	6¢	$10	0xba5bad…