Known-Twister — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$18

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

42.6%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

15 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$72

$72 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$27

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-11 05:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

93% 40% $-18

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	+25	$5	30¢	$7	+$2	05-06 07:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	+6	$5	92¢	$5	+$0	05-06 05:39
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	+11	$5	47¢	$5	+$0	05-10 11:45
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Andrey Rublev	+8	$5	58¢	$5	$-0	05-11 05:12
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	60¢	$4	$-1	05-10 11:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 05:12:19	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Andrey Rublev	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xc38144…
05-10 13:10:43	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo	Francisco Cerundolo	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3a15d6…
05-10 11:45:16	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x4b4878…
05-10 11:41:14	Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe878d7…
05-10 07:34:01	Will FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7721d1…
05-10 05:47:06	Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-05-10?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xbb2f7a…
05-08 09:25:37	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi	Alex de Minaur	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x96d100…
05-07 20:36:33	Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xee396d…
05-07 11:40:40	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic	Marin Cilic	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xaf7b66…
05-07 10:45:22	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	Nikoloz Basilashvili	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x40410c…
05-07 09:25:12	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x3884e0…
05-06 17:17:28	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x59d4b7…
05-06 17:07:07	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo	Alejandro Tabilo	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x46f9af…
05-06 07:09:50	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x237423…
05-06 05:39:24	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x6b24bf…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	11	$15.8K	90	05-11 09:35
Happy-Go-Lucky-Min 0x84ad…bfb7	11	$9.30K	662	05-11 09:35
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	9	$3.28K	44	05-11 07:30
Inferior-Ownership 0xa509…ae46	8	$829	58	05-10 15:22
Welcome-Revenue 0x42c9…9623	7	$4.67K	33	05-11 09:24
Conscious-Outfielder 0xdb83…1e50	7	$1.10K	31	05-10 15:22
(anonymous) 0xa497…7891	7	$731	104	05-11 09:20
(anonymous) 0xca20…7b68	7	$704	85	05-10 22:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	1	$5	25	+25	open	—	05-06 07:09
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-05-10?	1	$5	6	+6	Yes	+$1	05-10 05:47
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo	1	$5	10	+10	Lorenzo Musetti	$-5	05-10 13:10
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Aguilar	1	$5	9	+9	Nikoloz Basilashvili	+$4	05-07 10:45
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1	$5	11	+11	open	—	05-10 11:45
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$5	7	+7	open	—	05-10 11:41
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1	$5	8	+8	open	—	05-11 05:12
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini	1	$5	7	+7	Alexei Popyrin	$-5	05-07 09:25
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi	1	$5	8	+8	Matteo Arnaldi	$-5	05-08 09:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	1	$5	6	+6	open	—	05-06 05:39
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic	1	$5	8	+8	Marin Cilic	+$3	05-07 11:40
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo	1	$5	6	+6	Alejandro Tabilo	+$1	05-06 17:07
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	1	$5	6	+6	Over	$-5	05-07 20:36
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	1	$4	7	+7	No	$-4	05-06 17:17
Will FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw?	1	$3	5	+5	No	$-3	05-10 07:34