Realized P&L
+$1.37K
Unrealized P&L
+$325
Hit rate
66.3%
Resolved
6,062
Trades
27,985
lifetime
Volume
$109.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$970
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-21
last 10-23 04:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 71 days
Categories
Other
93% 38% +$1,295
Crypto
3% 46% +$98
Politics
3% 46% +$65
Sports
1% 39% -$102
Tech
0% 38% +$11
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
59 active days in 12wk • peak 1168 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +110 $45 99¢ $109 +$64 10-11 11:42
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +102 $62 80¢ $82 +$20 10-05 11:43
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +76 $52 99¢ $76 +$24 10-21 10:53
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +54 $37 100¢ $54 +$17 10-04 13:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +48 $30 100¢ $48 +$18 10-21 21:18
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +46 $14 98¢ $45 +$32 10-12 18:42
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +47 $28 89¢ $42 +$14 10-21 19:50
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +40 $29 99¢ $40 +$10 10-01 18:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +40 $31 99¢ $40 +$9 10-21 21:26
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +40 $32 99¢ $40 +$7 10-22 07:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +30 $5 99¢ $30 +$25 10-13 22:52
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No +30 $26 97¢ $29 +$3 10-19 20:21
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +26 $17 99¢ $26 +$9 10-08 00:33
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +24 $22 97¢ $24 +$1 10-05 06:19
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +30 $26 74¢ $22 -$4 09-13 18:33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +21 $4 99¢ $21 +$17 09-30 21:21
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +20 $14 100¢ $20 +$6 10-13 20:26
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +20 $9 99¢ $20 +$10 10-05 19:49
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +20 $8 99¢ $20 +$12 10-04 22:57
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $16 98¢ $20 +$3 10-06 06:05
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $32 20¢ $20 -$12 10-05 10:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +30 $14 64¢ $19 +$6 09-30 21:15
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? No +20 $15 96¢ $19 +$4 09-01 14:25
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +20 $14 87¢ $17 +$3 10-05 15:07
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +20 $2 82¢ $16 +$14 09-30 22:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +20 $15 78¢ $16 +$0 10-15 21:16
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +20 $11 76¢ $15 +$4 10-05 09:29
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $11 74¢ $15 +$3 10-21 17:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +20 $10 72¢ $14 +$5 10-21 19:46
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? No +20 $14 64¢ $13 -$1 08-30 21:24