Realized P&L
-$102
Unrealized P&L
+$77
Hit rate
42.4%
Resolved
120
Trades
1,271
lifetime
Volume
$5.22K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$389
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-18
last 11-07 00:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 37 days
Categories
Other
69% 33% -$78
Politics
12% 33% $0
Crypto
12% 39% -$22
Tech
7% 0% -$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
4 active days in 12wk • peak 583 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +151 $92 63¢ $96 +$4 11-05 00:22
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes +60 $42 80¢ $48 +$6 11-04 20:21
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms? Yes +40 $2 99¢ $40 +$37 11-05 00:42
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 7? Yes +54 $13 29¢ $16 +$3 11-06 15:51
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +14 -$1 92¢ $13 +$13 11-04 19:49
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 8? Yes +45 $9 24¢ $11 +$2 11-06 23:46
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on November 7? Yes +37 $10 28¢ $10 +$0 11-06 11:25
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +50 $12 20¢ $10 -$2 11-06 17:46
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +50 $10 19¢ $10 +$0 11-06 12:56
Will Kiin win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? Yes +60 $6 15¢ $9 +$2 11-05 10:56
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +15 -$2 58¢ $9 +$11 11-05 13:35
260-264 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot? Yes +50 $8 16¢ $8 +$0 11-06 12:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 7? Yes +45 $6 17¢ $8 +$2 11-06 21:03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-06 House election by 20%-25%? Yes +145 $8 5¢ $8 -$1 11-06 05:42
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 7? Yes +40 $10 18¢ $7 -$2 11-06 16:41
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 7? Yes +33 $10 22¢ $7 -$3 11-07 00:47
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on November 8? Yes +40 $12 18¢ $7 -$5 11-06 19:15
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 7? Yes +25 $8 28¢ $7 -$1 11-06 16:24
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? Yes +25 $1 28¢ $7 +$6 11-06 21:02
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on November 8? Yes +50 $10 14¢ $7 -$3 11-06 17:12
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 7? Yes +17 $4 40¢ $7 +$3 11-06 11:05
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 7? Yes +20 $7 34¢ $7 $0 11-06 16:13
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on November 7? Yes +38 $4 16¢ $6 +$3 11-07 01:19
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on November 7? Yes +20 $3 29¢ $6 +$2 11-06 19:20
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 7? Yes +25 $6 22¢ $6 $0 11-06 11:24
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on November 7? Yes +20 $4 26¢ $5 +$1 11-06 10:00
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on November 7? Yes +20 $6 24¢ $5 -$1 11-06 20:01
244 or fewer votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot? Yes +50 $6 10¢ $5 -$2 11-06 12:03
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of January 2027? Yes +20 $5 24¢ $5 -$1 11-06 14:19
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 8? Yes +20 $4 22¢ $4 +$0 11-06 16:26