Realized P&L
-$101
Unrealized P&L
+$109
Hit rate
52.6%
Resolved
124
Trades
1,326
lifetime
Volume
$5.36K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$438
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-18
last 11-07 08:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 37 days
Categories
Other
69% 35% -$78
Politics
12% 33% $0
Crypto
12% 39% -$22
Tech
6% 50% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
4 active days in 12wk • peak 583 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +151 $92 62¢ $94 +$2 11-05 00:22
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes +60 $42 81¢ $49 +$7 11-04 20:21
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms? Yes +40 $2 99¢ $39 +$37 11-05 00:42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 7? Yes +25 $8 100¢ $25 +$17 11-06 16:24
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 7? Yes +54 $13 44¢ $24 +$11 11-06 15:51
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 7? Yes +45 $6 50¢ $22 +$16 11-06 21:03
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +14 -$1 92¢ $13 +$13 11-04 19:49
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes +50 $13 23¢ $12 -$2 11-07 08:58
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 7? Yes +40 $10 27¢ $11 +$1 11-06 16:41
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +50 $10 20¢ $10 +$1 11-06 12:56
Will Kiin win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? Yes +60 $6 15¢ $9 +$2 11-05 10:56
will blockade be in the headlines on sunday 20261115 Yes +50 $16 18¢ $9 -$7 11-07 08:17
Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? Yes +72 $18 12¢ $9 -$10 11-07 07:21
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? Yes +15 -$2 58¢ $9 +$11 11-05 13:35
260-264 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot? Yes +50 $8 16¢ $8 +$0 11-06 12:03
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-06 House election by 20%-25%? Yes +145 $8 5¢ $8 -$1 11-06 05:42
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 7? Yes +20 $5 38¢ $8 +$3 11-06 17:29
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on November 7? Yes +20 $5 36¢ $7 +$2 11-06 19:02
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on November 7? Yes +25 $6 28¢ $7 +$1 11-06 11:24
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? Yes +25 $1 28¢ $7 +$6 11-06 21:02
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on November 8? Yes +30 $4 22¢ $6 +$2 11-07 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on November 7? Yes +37 $10 17¢ $6 -$4 11-06 11:25
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on November 8? Yes +31 $5 20¢ $6 +$2 11-07 08:00
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 7? Yes +21 $5 30¢ $6 +$1 11-06 15:55
Will "Crypto / Bitcoin" be in the headlines on Sunday? Yes +100 $6 6¢ $6 +$0 11-07 07:31
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on November 8? Yes — +20 $2 30¢ $6 +$4 11-07 07:30
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on November 8? Yes +31 $5 19¢ $6 +$1 11-07 06:52
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 6°C on November 7? Yes +22 $5 26¢ $6 +$1 11-07 00:00
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on November 7? Yes +20 $6 28¢ $6 $0 11-06 20:01
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on November 7? Yes +50 $15 11¢ $5 -$10 11-06 14:51