Old-Fashioned-Grief — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$96

Unrealized P&L

+$1.02K

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

Trades

290

lifetime

Volume

$149.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$516

Open exposure

$11.9K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-22 08:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

76% 50% +$457

Other

24% 33% -$543

Sports

1% 75% +$182

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+12,500	$10,478	92¢	$11.6K	+$1,084	10-22 08:55
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+833	$300	34¢	$279	-$21	10-14 03:00
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	+989	$78	4¢	$40	-$38	10-16 06:39
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	+433	$26	8¢	$37	+$11	10-11 14:15
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+6,189	$20	0¢	$9	-$11	10-20 15:45
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+133	$3	2¢	$3	+$0	10-22 05:23
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+15	$5	2¢	$0	-$5	09-25 14:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	12	$27.8K	22,996	10,496	+12,500	open	—	10-22 08:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$21.0K	25,495	25,495	+0	No	+$1,489	05-24 11:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	43	$20.3K	11,918	11,918	+0	open	—	10-22 08:55
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$10.6K	6,736	6,736	+0	Yes	+$1,748	04-16 16:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$8.8K	23,484	23,484	+0	No	-$1,366	04-20 16:37
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	5	$3.6K	5,382	5,382	+0	No	+$455	06-26 12:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	8	$3.6K	5,503	5,503	+0	No	-$30	07-05 12:09
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	4	$3.5K	2,342	2,342	+0	Yes	+$297	06-18 11:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	9	$3.3K	7,411	7,411	+0	Yes	-$2,277	06-12 08:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$3.0K	1,609	2,925	-1,316	Yes	+$1,841	06-16 06:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	3	$2.9K	1,560	1,560	+0	No	+$142	09-30 11:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$2.9K	20,677	18,149	+2,527	No	-$796	05-08 05:30
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	2	$2.5K	1,688	1,688	+0	open	—	10-08 11:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	7	$2.5K	5,527	5,527	+0	No	-$1,823	04-24 03:55
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$2.5K	3,620	3,620	+0	open	—	10-08 11:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$2.4K	7,622	7,622	+0	No	-$305	06-19 02:17
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	10	$2.3K	11,418	1,500	+9,918	No	-$1,000	07-06 12:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	2	$2.1K	4,768	4,768	+0	No	-$1,519	06-01 14:26
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	4	$1.9K	1,188	1,188	+0	Yes	+$261	04-16 17:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	2	$1.7K	888	888	+0	Yes	+$23	09-22 19:15
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$1.6K	1,135	1,135	+0	Yes	+$41	03-19 18:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	3	$1.6K	4,555	0	+4,555	Yes	+$2,933	04-06 08:43
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$1.4K	2,433	0	+2,433	Yes	+$988	03-04 16:10
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	2	$1.1K	1,296	0	+1,296	Yes	+$171	01-29 17:22
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	2	$1.0K	499	1,751	-1,252	Yes	-$627	01-12 15:04
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	2	$870	1,507	1,507	+0	No	+$70	01-29 17:22
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	3	$843	1,055	0	+1,055	No	+$212	01-13 20:40
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	3	$834	3,666	3,666	+0	open	—	10-19 13:49
will the next official us iran meeting be in oman	6	$764	867	217	+650	Yes	-$73	02-04 17:48
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	6	$688	469	469	+0	Yes	-$12	02-04 19:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 08:55:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	6,677	83¢	$5,542	0xdc4d79…
10-22 08:55:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,921	94¢	$5,542	0x45dd2d…
10-22 08:54:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,823	83¢	$4,812	0x1f2eba…
10-22 05:23:24	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x921547…
10-22 03:47:24	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xf9dbca…
10-21 17:41:51	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$1	0x9b46f3…
10-21 15:50:53	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xcbd471…
10-21 03:53:29	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xeb429e…
10-21 03:51:33	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xbf5802…
10-21 03:04:48	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x16c988…
10-21 02:48:23	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe70c6f…
10-21 02:01:33	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xe42095…
10-20 21:02:08	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x8c0f06…
10-20 18:33:23	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0xfe5519…
10-20 15:46:03	Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xa307e9…
10-20 15:45:02	Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,189	0¢	$20	0x0179f2…
10-19 13:49:17	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	1,833	18¢	$326	0x6da1c6…
10-19 03:49:08	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	1,833	9¢	$158	0x9a06bf…
10-19 03:47:53	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,110	7¢	$80	0xd36728…
10-17 17:54:11	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	3,666	10¢	$350	0xa256ff…
10-16 06:39:10	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	8¢	$3	0x65b173…
10-16 06:39:04	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	952	8¢	$75	0x740c31…
10-14 03:00:41	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	833	36¢	$300	0x0de549…
10-12 10:44:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,644	86¢	$1,414	0x6d206d…
10-12 09:58:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	163	86¢	$140	0x647e3a…
10-12 09:56:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	47	86¢	$40	0xe3effc…
10-12 09:43:25	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	86¢	$27	0x069d69…
10-12 07:07:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0x67b5bd…
10-12 06:53:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	800	86¢	$688	0xc1e6eb…
10-12 06:40:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x619c26…
10-12 05:43:24	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x20626c…
10-12 05:43:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xac9378…
10-12 04:37:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x3311f1…
10-12 04:08:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	716	86¢	$616	0xbd5d30…
10-12 04:07:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	800	86¢	$688	0xed6e42…
10-12 02:27:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0x822367…
10-12 02:13:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x41d31c…
10-12 02:01:29	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x82a004…
10-12 01:36:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	86¢	$88	0x852427…
10-12 01:13:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0x768c40…
10-12 01:12:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	280	86¢	$241	0xb178d1…
10-12 00:28:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xd79b0c…
10-11 23:37:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	116	86¢	$100	0x328311…
10-11 23:25:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	86¢	$516	0x464727…
10-11 22:39:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$4	0xf13404…
10-11 22:35:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	93	86¢	$80	0x0f61b0…
10-11 21:57:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0xd8ab2a…
10-11 21:07:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x212ce7…
10-11 20:41:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	86¢	$16	0xb23e05…
10-11 20:40:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xcab66e…
10-11 20:40:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$5	0x62e231…
10-11 20:40:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x471234…
10-11 20:40:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xe89307…
10-11 20:40:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x8d7bc0…
10-11 20:40:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x8be405…
10-11 20:40:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x8548d4…
10-11 20:40:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x63fe56…
10-11 20:40:43	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x4ac13a…
10-11 20:40:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	338	86¢	$290	0x83bdc5…
10-11 20:40:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x711bcb…
10-11 20:40:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x313bfa…
10-11 14:15:46	Iran leadership change by November 30?	Yes	BUY	433	6¢	$26	0x764446…
10-11 13:58:54	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	280	7¢	$19	0x5830b5…
10-11 13:58:13	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfc3238…
10-11 13:52:10	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	115	9¢	$10	0x40f160…
10-10 17:41:15	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,376	4¢	$100	0x29a42e…
10-10 17:40:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	75	85¢	$64	0xd19269…
10-10 16:15:49	Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	2,605	2¢	$55	0x64b455…
10-08 11:00:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,855	82¢	$5,621	0x4585c6…
10-08 11:00:38	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	1,688	75¢	$1,266	0x217252…
10-08 11:00:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,870	35¢	$1,005	0x8d9ac3…
10-06 19:42:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,846	78¢	$3,000	0x6a8145…
10-06 19:40:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	7,762	82¢	$6,365	0x539059…
10-06 19:28:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,217	78¢	$949	0xee3055…
10-05 17:10:59	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	1,688	74¢	$1,250	0xf34a6e…
10-05 17:10:37	Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	2,605	2¢	$43	0x9fefe8…
10-05 17:09:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	83¢	$1,667	0x282b61…
10-04 10:30:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	662	37¢	$245	0xfccb45…
09-30 11:54:12	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	2,059	34¢	$700	0xaac378…
09-30 11:53:14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,560	98¢	$1,534	0xd170fd…
09-25 14:37:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	615	88¢	$541	0x5f3841…
09-25 14:37:02	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xa65239…
09-25 14:36:27	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	37	19¢	$7	0xd3a082…
09-25 14:36:18	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	211	17¢	$35	0xb86aa4…
09-25 14:36:11	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 9	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x37b326…
09-25 14:35:54	us x yemen ceasefire continues through october 9	No	BUY	124	23¢	$29	0xc84233…
09-25 14:34:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	735	84¢	$617	0xa4fb7b…
09-22 19:16:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	946	90¢	$851	0x76f2b8…
09-22 19:15:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	SELL	888	96¢	$849	0xe48922…
09-20 13:03:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,024	83¢	$850	0x5587ce…
09-20 12:39:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	583	82¢	$478	0xc4ac7c…
09-20 11:54:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0xd034b9…
09-20 11:22:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	82¢	$2	0x159ac8…
09-20 09:11:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,659	82¢	$3,000	0x0597be…
09-20 09:11:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	888	93¢	$826	0x11fd9c…
09-19 16:50:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,185	85¢	$2,707	0x3af599…
09-19 16:48:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,015	85¢	$1,713	0x0a9234…
08-23 15:32:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	149	27¢	$40	0x709261…
08-23 15:32:34	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	188	22¢	$41	0x00c2ef…
08-16 08:07:49	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	188	20¢	$38	0x780ee8…