Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.15K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

5.5%

Resolved

718

Trades

9,596

lifetime

Volume

$29.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 10-26 22:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Politics

52% 7% -$564

Other

44% 6% -$523

Tech

3% 4% -$29

Crypto

0% 8% -$24

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$7

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 318 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us x china agree to pace the ai frontier in 2026	Yes		+0	$0	5¢	$0	$0	09-14 21:04
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+0	-$1	4¢	$0	+$1	10-18 15:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	2	$111	400	400	+0	open	—	10-13 02:53
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-11 House election by 3%-6%?	8	$104	370	370	+0	open	—	10-12 13:48
Will Branislav Becík win the 2026 Nitra Region gubernatorial election?	7	$99	400	400	+0	Yes	-$15	10-14 07:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$98	90	30	+60	No	+$12	03-24 10:54
Will PAIS win the third most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	6	$77	280	280	+0	open	—	10-17 14:58
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-04 House election by 5%-15%?	2	$75	252	252	+0	open	—	10-11 16:45
Plague case in US by December 31?	10	$72	317	317	+0	open	—	10-07 05:23
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	8	$71	245	245	+0	open	—	10-19 12:49
Will Democrats win Latino voters in the Texas Senate election?	5	$70	320	320	+0	open	—	10-09 19:13
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?	10	$69	200	200	+0	open	—	10-25 00:11
will anne hathaway be nominated for best supporting actress at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	9	$68	220	220	+0	open	—	10-20 05:23
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be at least $521,000 on December 31?	21	$68	313	313	+0	open	—	10-22 01:15
Will Once Upon a Time in Harlem win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	7	$66	254	254	+0	open	—	10-12 01:35
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	4	$65	191	191	+0	open	—	10-13 02:25
Will Legalise Cannabis win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	4	$61	220	220	+0	open	—	10-10 14:51
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?	6	$58	178	178	+0	open	—	10-18 13:15
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	5	$58	200	200	+0	open	—	10-21 02:05
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?	4	$57	160	160	+0	open	—	10-08 03:27
ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026	2	$56	400	400	+0	open	—	10-12 19:09
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?	15	$53	178	178	+0	open	—	09-28 15:01
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	5	$53	130	130	+0	open	—	10-13 11:24
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-08 House election by 3%-6%?	3	$53	160	160	+0	open	—	10-11 09:49
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	9	$53	207	207	+0	Yes	$0	10-06 03:31
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 0%-5%?	4	$52	160	160	+0	open	—	10-11 12:31
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 20%-25%?	5	$51	160	160	+0	open	—	10-10 20:17
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	4	$51	200	200	+0	open	—	10-20 14:30
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	5	$51	263	263	+0	open	—	10-08 13:47
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on November 30, 2026?	7	$51	160	160	+0	open	—	10-02 06:53
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	8	$51	160	160	+0	Yes	-$4	10-08 15:25
Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	2	$50	200	200	+0	open	—	10-22 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:00:33	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xd95bd2…
10-26 21:13:18	Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	90	13¢	$12	0xbf1ddb…
10-26 16:50:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-10 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x133102…
10-26 16:50:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-10 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0xeffc17…
10-26 16:49:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-10 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xa18b87…
10-26 16:32:29	Will "I Love Boosters" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xcb82fa…
10-26 15:48:14	Will Tomáš Vohryzka be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?	No	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0x2d5568…
10-26 15:01:11	Will "I Love Boosters" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x8d6305…
10-26 14:47:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$1	0x2d804b…
10-26 14:39:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x629826…
10-26 14:39:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0xf64f25…
10-26 14:14:02	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0x435229…
10-26 14:02:30	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.25T and $2.50T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x444c79…
10-26 13:44:27	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0x9486f6…
10-26 13:30:06	Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	No	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xbb0af3…
10-26 13:22:38	Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	No	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x6fec15…
10-26 13:20:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x944c40…
10-26 13:20:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xa1b399…
10-26 13:14:42	Will PP win 120-125 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x5a0a44…
10-26 13:08:02	Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xab6a7a…
10-26 12:46:08	Will the CPN-UML candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xd56ea7…
10-26 12:46:08	Will the Nepali Congress candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xb73cb8…
10-26 12:46:03	Will the CPN-UML candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xf66933…
10-26 12:46:03	Will the CPN-UML candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x92129f…
10-26 12:46:03	Will the Nepali Congress candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x6326d0…
10-26 12:44:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x7d31ea…
10-26 12:44:56	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-08 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x1a3275…
10-26 12:32:09	Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xbc1723…
10-26 12:30:05	Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xc883bf…
10-26 12:30:05	Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x1ab2a7…
10-26 12:30:02	Will Simeon Barclay win the Turner Prize 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xae4a0e…
10-26 12:27:08	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	Yes	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0xfe6e69…
10-26 12:16:35	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x0229ff…
10-26 12:07:56	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	SELL	60	9¢	$5	0x71f2ab…
10-26 12:07:38	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	BUY	60	9¢	$5	0xd2c42e…
10-26 11:49:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-02 House election by 9%-12%?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xa7dc40…
10-26 11:49:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-02 House election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x9a7789…
10-26 11:34:59	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Hidalgo Congress election?	Yes	BUY	60	19¢	$11	0x91fd09…
10-26 11:12:15	Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x22049f…
10-26 11:12:09	Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x93cd57…
10-26 09:39:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-07 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x503593…
10-25 22:10:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xe799ef…
10-25 20:29:03	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x09e864…
10-25 18:54:08	Will Himesh Patel be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xfa3a8d…
10-25 17:50:23	Will Marshall Callaghan win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x9ddf47…
10-25 15:18:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-14 House election by 30% or more?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xffec08…
10-25 11:48:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xcdd035…
10-25 11:43:27	Will Amazon be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x08db35…
10-25 09:56:27	Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0xe1a8f3…
10-25 07:53:38	Will Waymo launch in Charlotte, NC by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x43d0be…
10-25 00:20:42	Will Listen win Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x595bd0…
10-25 00:11:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	42	5¢	$2	0x740095…
10-24 23:57:56	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SD-AL House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x9f17a2…
10-24 22:50:17	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be less than 3,500,000?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x56f65d…
10-24 21:02:33	Will George Cardenas win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	160	3¢	$6	0x5e486f…
10-24 18:07:20	Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 21%+?	Yes	SELL	7	9¢	$1	0xdf5160…
10-24 12:00:50	Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x37044a…
10-24 03:03:18	Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial second round by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x053fa1…
10-24 02:06:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-11 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0xddcebd…
10-23 20:36:18	Will Maliha K. Ahmed win the 2026 Milton mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$1	0x1109fa…
10-23 20:02:51	Will Nikolajus Lebedevičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x322dad…
10-23 16:35:35	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xda985d…
10-23 04:07:53	Will the CPN-UML candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	19	8¢	$2	0xb0265a…
10-23 02:50:05	Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x6ebcb6…
10-23 02:40:50	Will the Nepali Congress candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0xc803da…
10-23 02:26:26	Will AP call US Senate control by January 4, 11:59 PM?	No	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x3d28da…
10-23 02:16:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-05 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x5486db…
10-23 01:42:20	Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?	No	SELL	41	2¢	$1	0x5b139b…
10-22 22:44:17	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-01 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x7d2b29…
10-22 22:25:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-02 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x961704…
10-22 21:35:05	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	158	7¢	$11	0x066147…
10-22 21:20:39	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	16	17¢	$3	0xfa0a01…
10-22 21:19:47	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xd2cb90…
10-22 21:04:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-02 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x2f4061…
10-22 20:39:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xacd522…
10-22 20:39:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	44	12¢	$5	0x4d5b3f…
10-22 19:33:36	Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x1cc8ca…
10-22 16:50:14	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x47aef6…
10-22 16:42:03	Will an independent candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xa6756d…
10-22 16:11:42	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0xb85e9b…
10-22 16:07:39	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	27	7¢	$2	0x928b61…
10-22 16:03:36	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x27f659…
10-22 15:44:24	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x72dcdb…
10-22 14:24:54	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Turkey by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xbcc24b…
10-22 14:03:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 35% or more?	Yes	SELL	60	7¢	$4	0x6d3daa…
10-22 13:42:09	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 4.25% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xb73498…
10-22 13:29:38	Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x27370b…
10-22 13:13:53	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x57a5e5…
10-22 12:56:05	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0x0dfeb0…
10-22 12:05:35	Will StepFun have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	7¢	$5	0x4a23d3…
10-22 11:45:23	Will James Yaroshuk win the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x4e4e5d…
10-22 10:51:20	Will David Jolly underperform Kamala in Florida?	Yes	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x7fbfdd…
10-22 10:16:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	60	22¢	$13	0xdd0468…
10-22 10:06:15	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x442e29…
10-22 09:00:03	Will "Meeting Your Maker" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0x281b6e…
10-22 08:58:05	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x030c44…
10-22 08:51:11	Will the CPN-UML candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x8c7439…
10-22 06:42:24	Will Democrats win the Iowa and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x6a98f0…
10-22 06:35:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 35% or more?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xf09646…
10-22 06:34:59	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	13¢	$7	0x28c71d…