Defensive-Descent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$174

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

23.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$99

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 07-17 18:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 20% $-174

Other

4% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	2	$617	438	421	+17	open	—	04-27 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	3	$507	539	224	+315	Down	$-113	05-05 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$499	403	403	+0	open	—	04-28 13:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$493	1,115	250	+865	open	—	05-01 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$473	398	388	+10	open	—	04-27 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	2	$398	282	271	+11	open	—	04-27 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$373	301	285	+15	open	—	04-27 13:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$300	152	152	+0	open	—	05-01 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$270	688	0	+688	open	—	05-01 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$242	154	154	+0	open	—	04-29 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$233	173	166	+7	open	—	04-27 13:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$189	125	125	+0	Up	+$59	05-05 13:15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	3	$174	911	530	+381	open	—	04-28 09:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$160	423	0	+423	open	—	04-27 13:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$150	345	0	+345	open	—	05-01 14:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$122	88	88	+0	open	—	05-01 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$100	621	0	+621	open	—	04-27 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	1	$100	469	0	+469	open	—	04-28 08:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	1	$100	220	0	+220	open	—	04-29 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$94	207	0	+207	open	—	04-29 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$90	429	0	+429	open	—	04-28 13:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$86	714	714	+0	open	—	04-25 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	1	$75	131	0	+131	open	—	05-01 14:21
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$74	833	0	+833	open	—	04-27 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$70	125	0	+125	open	—	04-29 17:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	1	$70	294	0	+294	open	—	04-29 18:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	2	$66	57	57	+0	open	—	05-01 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	1	$60	207	0	+207	open	—	04-27 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$54	192	0	+192	open	—	04-27 18:46
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$50	131	0	+131	open	—	04-29 19:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 18:43:12	btc updown 5m 1784313600	Down	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x957bcd…
06-23 21:08:52	btc updown 5m 1782248700	Up	BUY	294	10¢	$29	0xca408c…
05-07 13:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	116	42¢	$49	0x4b569c…
05-05 13:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	315	60¢	$190	0x75c549…
05-05 13:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	224	88¢	$197	0x88b5c1…
05-05 13:20:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	224	54¢	$120	0x14682f…
05-05 13:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0x45d8ef…
05-05 13:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	125	52¢	$65	0x855aa8…
05-05 13:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	52	51¢	$27	0x9d4a24…
05-05 12:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	214	21¢	$45	0xdc226d…
05-04 19:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x64cf3c…
05-01 17:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	36	45¢	$16	0x50d9b0…
05-01 17:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xd1cf51…
05-01 17:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x74540e…
05-01 14:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	865	23¢	$200	0x0c0f44…
05-01 14:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	250	68¢	$171	0xbf7a6b…
05-01 14:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	250	49¢	$123	0xd70255…
05-01 14:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	688	39¢	$270	0x8b9623…
05-01 14:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	131	57¢	$75	0xb05646…
05-01 14:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	88	93¢	$82	0xec5b45…
05-01 14:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	88	45¢	$40	0x54b063…
05-01 14:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	57	73¢	$41	0x6c4d74…
05-01 14:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xf4a8e2…
05-01 14:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	345	44¢	$150	0x3ce8ea…
05-01 14:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	152	99¢	$150	0xb64eda…
05-01 14:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0x4a6750…
04-29 19:02:54	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	131	38¢	$50	0xf7c84a…
04-29 19:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x6b555a…
04-29 19:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	154	99¢	$152	0xfef9ac…
04-29 18:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	154	59¢	$90	0x90cc9b…
04-29 18:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	294	24¢	$70	0x7b40d4…
04-29 18:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	37	11¢	$4	0x25c1be…
04-29 18:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	170	53¢	$90	0xc7a5f1…
04-29 18:36:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	237	17¢	$40	0x23580b…
04-29 17:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	23	9¢	$2	0x045243…
04-29 17:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	125	56¢	$70	0x81382d…
04-29 17:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	220	45¢	$100	0x6714d3…
04-28 13:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	175	28¢	$49	0xc283e4…
04-28 13:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	429	21¢	$90	0x71f38c…
04-28 13:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	403	99¢	$399	0x5ef6d6…
04-28 13:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	403	25¢	$100	0x4ec8f2…
04-28 09:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0xa1a529…
04-28 09:10:20	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	18¢	$65	0x95b34d…
04-28 09:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	99	40¢	$39	0xf9de50…
04-28 08:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	469	21¢	$100	0x897b56…
04-27 18:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	192	28¢	$54	0xb94284…
04-27 18:44:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	833	9¢	$74	0x84f66c…
04-27 14:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	207	29¢	$60	0x65a162…
04-27 14:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	188	99¢	$186	0xcbd036…
04-27 13:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	199	13¢	$26	0x9a9bce…
04-27 13:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	190	84¢	$160	0x459800…
04-27 13:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	207	48¢	$100	0x2338e0…
04-27 13:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	421	99¢	$417	0x966941…
04-27 13:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	438	46¢	$200	0x715f86…
04-27 13:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	285	99¢	$283	0xfddd65…
04-27 13:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	301	30¢	$90	0xc96ab0…
04-27 13:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x75ef21…
04-27 13:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	361	42¢	$150	0x237ec4…
04-27 13:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	166	99¢	$164	0x24bb5d…
04-27 13:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	173	40¢	$69	0x2e2fe0…
04-27 13:25:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	621	16¢	$100	0x4dff33…
04-27 13:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	271	99¢	$268	0x5ba89a…
04-27 13:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	282	46¢	$130	0x168b1b…
04-27 12:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0x3e2326…
04-27 12:50:44	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	530	6¢	$34	0x9d904d…
04-25 15:34:40	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	606	6¢	$36	0x5089d4…
04-25 15:31:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	714	5¢	$36	0x9a3c30…
04-24 15:12:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	714	7¢	$50	0x8a261d…
04-24 15:11:46	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	554	14¢	$75	0xdaad91…