Defensive-Descent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$865

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.1%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$15.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-30 19:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 36% -$584

Other

32% 44% -$184

Sports

1% 0% -$83

Politics

1% 0% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	2	$864	4,198	4,198	+0	No	-$231	05-05 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	2	$617	438	421	+17	Up	+$234	04-27 13:55
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	2	$612	716	716	+0	No	+$164	05-13 20:14
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$525	1,867	1,867	+0	No	-$200	05-14 19:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	3	$507	539	224	+315	Down	-$113	05-05 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$499	403	403	+0	Up	+$299	04-28 13:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$493	1,115	250	+865	Down	-$152	05-01 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	4	$473	398	388	+10	Up	-$45	04-27 14:00
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	3	$425	336	336	+0	Yes	+$223	10-24 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$422	332	332	+0	Up	+$234	10-22 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	2	$398	282	271	+11	Up	+$149	04-27 13:25
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	2	$381	682	682	+0	Yes	-$19	05-05 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$376	279	279	+0	Up	+$176	10-24 20:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$373	301	285	+15	Up	+$208	04-27 13:45
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$358	1,245	1,245	+0	No	+$57	05-15 08:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$307	391	391	+0	Up	+$111	10-24 13:28
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$301	475	475	+0	Yes	+$176	05-11 15:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$300	152	152	+0	Down	+$0	05-01 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$284	201	201	+0	Up	+$114	10-24 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$270	688	0	+688	Down	-$270	05-01 14:30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	4	$254	1,016	1,016	+0	No	-$21	06-24 20:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	2	$247	445	445	+0	Up	-$12	10-30 19:36
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	1	$246	1,538	0	+1,538	No	-$246	06-19 18:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$245	193	193	+0	Up	+$25	10-30 19:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$242	154	154	+0	Up	+$62	04-29 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$233	173	166	+7	Up	+$102	04-27 13:35
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	2	$230	193	193	+0	Yes	+$134	05-01 14:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$193	273	273	+0	Down	+$33	10-24 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	1	$190	493	0	+493	Down	-$190	10-24 13:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$189	125	125	+0	Up	+$59	05-05 13:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 19:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x48a516…
10-30 19:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x52ae44…
10-30 19:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	167	47¢	$78	0xc635f6…
10-30 19:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	SELL	445	26¢	$118	0x7d6eba…
10-30 19:35:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	445	29¢	$129	0x482e71…
10-30 19:22:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	SELL	193	70¢	$135	0x65ebe0…
10-30 19:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	193	57¢	$110	0x064271…
10-30 19:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	186	61¢	$113	0xca98c6…
10-30 19:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	186	38¢	$70	0x7e8778…
10-30 19:12:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	105	71¢	$74	0x773ac7…
10-30 19:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	105	86¢	$90	0x61c583…
10-30 19:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0x58d401…
10-30 19:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	73	44¢	$32	0x72df24…
10-30 14:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	240	22¢	$53	0x34d153…
10-30 13:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	344	9¢	$31	0x29981a…
10-30 12:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	160	37¢	$59	0x5f6c1f…
10-25 15:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xc1ec8b…
10-25 15:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x876830…
10-25 14:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0xb10cb2…
10-25 11:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	116	31¢	$36	0x481b98…
10-24 20:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	279	99¢	$276	0x0c046c…
10-24 20:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	279	36¢	$100	0x9bb67b…
10-24 20:09:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	201	99¢	$199	0x979300…
10-24 20:07:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	201	42¢	$85	0x1eedeb…
10-24 19:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	94	98¢	$93	0xacc688…
10-24 19:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	94	72¢	$68	0x8b839c…
10-24 19:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	71	98¢	$70	0x2fd5b9…
10-24 19:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	71	39¢	$28	0x559e4a…
10-24 14:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	273	41¢	$113	0xe5da31…
10-24 14:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	273	29¢	$80	0x2e0c8e…
10-24 14:39:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	96¢	$324	0x62fa9c…
10-24 14:00:50	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	303	32¢	$97	0x739ba1…
10-24 13:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0xddbc64…
10-24 13:37:42	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x3f2b89…
10-24 13:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	493	39¢	$190	0x011172…
10-24 13:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	391	53¢	$209	0x953a1c…
10-24 13:25:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	391	25¢	$98	0x6f811d…
10-24 13:22:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0xa7482c…
10-24 13:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x3eecb3…
10-24 13:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	109	37¢	$40	0x15d037…
10-24 12:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0x59c120…
10-23 19:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	39	91¢	$35	0x37ed1f…
10-23 19:46:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	39	44¢	$17	0x155477…
10-23 19:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	37	99¢	$36	0x05af6b…
10-23 19:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	37	38¢	$14	0xa4ac58…
10-22 18:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	455	28¢	$129	0x40ab11…
10-22 18:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0xc29dde…
10-22 17:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	332	99¢	$328	0xae942c…
10-22 17:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	332	28¢	$94	0x30070b…
10-22 17:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x868d47…
10-22 17:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x77b167…
10-22 17:22:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	126	25¢	$32	0x620bc8…
07-17 18:43:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x957bcd…
07-17 18:42:09	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	279	7¢	$19	0x36f129…
06-24 20:56:55	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	464	9¢	$42	0x102a09…
06-24 20:56:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	638	7¢	$45	0x4fa4f8…
06-23 21:08:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	294	10¢	$29	0xca408c…
06-23 21:07:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	638	9¢	$60	0x9218b8…
06-22 15:28:10	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	SELL	561	11¢	$62	0x91ab36…
06-22 14:54:55	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	561	12¢	$67	0x94c74b…
06-22 14:54:35	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	377	19¢	$72	0x116ebe…
06-22 13:46:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	377	20¢	$77	0x4564ef…
06-22 13:45:08	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	467	18¢	$84	0xfa47b6…
06-20 00:12:10	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	467	8¢	$39	0x638e03…
06-20 00:08:49	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	41,290	0¢	$41	0x9a5890…
06-19 18:00:47	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	1,538	16¢	$246	0xd3793d…
06-07 20:37:18	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	41,290	0¢	$124	0x812be3…
05-15 08:25:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,245	17¢	$208	0x3d1625…
05-14 19:44:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,245	12¢	$150	0x70d149…
05-14 19:42:51	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,867	9¢	$162	0x6d1ee1…
05-13 20:16:19	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,867	19¢	$362	0x1794f3…
05-13 20:14:41	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	716	54¢	$388	0xf16d7b…
05-11 15:28:17	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	716	31¢	$224	0x04b9a4…
05-11 15:26:15	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	475	50¢	$239	0x7a32cf…
05-10 10:13:16	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	475	13¢	$62	0x3362a6…
05-07 13:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	116	42¢	$49	0x4b569c…
05-05 15:14:06	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	682	27¢	$181	0xddf829…
05-05 13:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	315	60¢	$190	0x75c549…
05-05 13:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	224	88¢	$197	0x88b5c1…
05-05 13:20:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	224	54¢	$120	0x14682f…
05-05 13:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0x45d8ef…
05-05 13:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	125	52¢	$65	0x855aa8…
05-05 13:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	52	51¢	$27	0x9d4a24…
05-05 13:05:44	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	682	29¢	$200	0x5b76ef…
05-05 13:00:38	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,198	8¢	$317	0xa61851…
05-05 12:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	214	21¢	$45	0xdc226d…
05-05 12:50:08	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	58¢	$47	0x28d219…
05-04 19:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x64cf3c…
05-04 19:06:46	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,198	13¢	$547	0x0f5a51…
05-04 17:05:48	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	43¢	$35	0x13d306…
05-04 17:05:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	202	19¢	$38	0x3f7a40…
05-01 18:17:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	202	17¢	$35	0xbcff4e…
05-01 17:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	36	45¢	$16	0x50d9b0…
05-01 17:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xd1cf51…
05-01 17:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x74540e…
05-01 14:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	865	23¢	$200	0x0c0f44…
05-01 14:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	250	68¢	$171	0xbf7a6b…
05-01 14:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	250	49¢	$123	0xd70255…
05-01 14:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	688	39¢	$270	0x8b9623…
05-01 14:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	131	57¢	$75	0xb05646…