Villainous-Willingness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$4.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$10

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-12 23:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

48% 67% +$0

Politics

36% — —

Sports

15% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+166	$10	6¢	$10	+$0	06-12 23:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	16	$375	191	191	+0	open	—	04-27 09:11
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	10	$313	239	239	+0	No	+$1	04-17 14:23
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	10	$291	151	151	+0	open	—	06-10 17:26
Will Alberta join the US?	6	$290	152	152	+0	open	—	06-05 11:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$211	108	108	+0	open	—	04-09 20:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	7	$188	98	98	+0	open	—	05-16 23:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	7	$171	243	243	+0	open	—	05-24 06:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$149	100	100	+0	open	—	06-02 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$142	103	103	+0	open	—	06-07 05:43
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	6	$129	96	96	+0	open	—	06-08 18:30
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	3	$122	62	62	+0	open	—	06-12 11:59
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$122	63	63	+0	open	—	05-26 17:49
Iran leadership change by June 30?	3	$117	61	61	+0	open	—	06-05 18:50
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	7	$114	256	256	+0	open	—	06-06 18:31
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$113	57	57	+0	open	—	04-07 21:15
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	11	$113	282	282	+0	open	—	06-07 20:58
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$109	58	58	+0	Yes	+$0	04-22 08:30
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$109	56	56	+0	open	—	04-25 07:58
Netanyahu out by April 30?	5	$109	117	212	-95	open	—	04-08 18:23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	4	$101	52	52	+0	open	—	06-11 01:51
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	04-21 14:41
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	4	$93	48	48	+0	open	—	05-15 17:50
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$92	49	49	+0	open	—	05-27 02:00
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	3	$86	46	46	+0	open	—	04-17 20:45
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$71	124	124	+0	open	—	06-09 04:33
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	8	$45	324	324	+0	open	—	03-27 02:25
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	11	$42	332	332	+0	open	—	04-26 18:17
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$36	18	18	+0	No	+$0	03-29 10:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$35	303	303	+0	open	—	05-21 19:09
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$13	159	159	+0	open	—	04-18 16:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 23:15:00	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	6¢	$10	0x9389b2…
06-12 16:52:03	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	144	6¢	$9	0xb6fd9c…
06-12 16:52:03	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x3ee00a…
06-12 11:59:25	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0xd228a8…
06-12 11:59:25	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0x035f93…
06-12 08:17:45	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0xc07ba9…
06-11 01:51:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x0ce3e2…
06-11 01:50:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x932885…
06-10 23:16:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xb24e4e…
06-10 23:16:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa02b00…
06-10 17:26:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	96¢	$34	0xf24f9c…
06-10 17:26:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xeae755…
06-10 17:26:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xc3b4ed…
06-10 15:42:30	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xa94637…
06-10 15:42:30	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0x9f7bc5…
06-09 08:31:09	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0xf26306…
06-09 08:31:09	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xcc4c35…
06-09 08:31:09	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xc1cbdc…
06-09 08:31:09	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xbd0ed2…
06-09 06:43:31	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0x7b2cca…
06-09 04:33:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	124	29¢	$36	0xfa0602…
06-09 02:05:51	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	124	28¢	$35	0xf5c36f…
06-08 18:30:18	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	63	67¢	$42	0xa21b90…
06-08 18:30:18	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0x9c536a…
06-08 18:30:18	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x01fcd1…
06-08 15:58:31	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	67¢	$21	0xc1791e…
06-08 15:58:31	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x910329…
06-08 15:58:31	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	67¢	$41	0x57aa41…
06-07 20:58:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x4f1043…
06-07 20:58:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	73	3¢	$2	0x4c069f…
06-07 16:36:51	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	76	3¢	$2	0x46a6a1…
06-07 05:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	40	69¢	$28	0xc68460…
06-07 05:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	63	69¢	$43	0x32c08c…
06-07 03:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	17	69¢	$12	0xad68ef…
06-07 03:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	86	69¢	$59	0x94e634…
06-06 18:31:12	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	64	19¢	$12	0x3e167a…
06-06 18:31:12	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	27	19¢	$5	0x1e5f43…
06-06 15:19:43	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	91	19¢	$17	0xfde264…
06-06 11:33:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0xe0e5d3…
06-06 11:33:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x7a863d…
06-06 11:33:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x77a2fd…
06-06 11:33:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0x743af9…
06-06 09:18:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	157	6¢	$9	0xb9c7df…
06-06 03:59:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x48a547…
06-06 03:59:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x0b6de3…
06-06 02:56:07	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$47	0x576c11…
06-05 18:50:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xc55da4…
06-05 18:50:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x50e95d…
06-05 15:32:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	61	96¢	$58	0x512c64…
06-05 11:49:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	32	95¢	$30	0x90b238…
06-05 11:49:15	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	47	95¢	$45	0xce68ac…
06-05 09:53:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0x5c630a…
06-05 00:37:01	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	36	96¢	$34	0xe918d9…
06-05 00:37:00	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0xadf06d…
06-04 20:17:24	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	73	95¢	$70	0xd5471a…
06-02 18:00:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x785aa4…
06-02 13:08:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x9d671e…
06-02 03:31:01	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	149	2¢	$2	0x89fb21…
06-02 02:19:28	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	2¢	$2	0x630a3d…
06-01 17:45:46	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	57	26¢	$15	0x155192…
06-01 17:45:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	26¢	$13	0x686d7d…
06-01 17:45:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	57	26¢	$15	0x609161…
06-01 13:03:40	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	165	22¢	$37	0x20691c…
05-27 02:00:11	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	49	94¢	$46	0xd6ba7e…
05-26 21:52:35	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	49	94¢	$46	0xa63b6c…
05-26 17:49:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xf6046e…
05-26 17:49:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0xc1805e…
05-26 15:33:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	63	96¢	$60	0xd127f9…
05-25 22:01:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xfbbed9…
05-25 22:01:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0xb6bfc2…
05-25 22:01:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	49	3¢	$1	0xa17e57…
05-25 22:01:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	46	3¢	$1	0x4ead42…
05-25 20:15:36	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0xf9dc7b…
05-24 06:15:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	54	67¢	$36	0x2b93b1…
05-24 06:15:11	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	32	67¢	$21	0xc8d4c4…
05-24 06:05:53	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	86	66¢	$57	0x5e920b…
05-23 20:02:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	32	24¢	$8	0xc6ae35…
05-23 20:02:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	60	24¢	$15	0x920f9d…
05-23 20:02:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	65	25¢	$16	0x2f9346…
05-23 15:52:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	157	12¢	$18	0x4828da…
05-21 19:09:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	43	7¢	$3	0xfefb8a…
05-21 19:09:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	71	7¢	$5	0xd4f411…
05-21 19:09:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	42	7¢	$3	0x023aca…
05-21 15:25:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	156	6¢	$9	0xbf706c…
05-20 18:12:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	72	6¢	$4	0xd7e27c…
05-20 13:44:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0x439362…
05-19 11:48:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	75	5¢	$4	0x68d74c…
05-19 07:59:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	75	5¢	$4	0xa149be…
05-16 23:03:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0xfbdc5d…
05-15 23:53:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xd8278d…
05-15 17:50:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x825885…
05-15 17:50:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x6e513c…
05-15 17:50:24	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	42	97¢	$41	0x460262…
05-15 14:52:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0x47a183…
05-14 19:29:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xb3fcaf…
05-14 19:29:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0x6ad2b4…
05-14 19:29:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x2d4a57…
05-14 16:52:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0x7d013d…
05-14 16:52:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0a6561…
04-27 09:11:08	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x658ec8…