Personal-Trigger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$300

Unrealized P&L

+$28

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

640

lifetime

Volume

$13.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$306

1 position

First seen

2026-03-25

last 06-03 10:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

53% 0% $-293

Politics

39% 0% $-7

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 260 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No		-434	$-334	70¢	$-306	+$28	06-03 10:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	4	$1.1K	916	916	+0	open	—	04-28 17:15
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	12	$1.1K	1,496	1,496	+0	Yes	$-288	04-25 07:24
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	3	$786	544	544	+0	open	—	04-14 09:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$570	600	600	+0	open	—	05-24 11:07
fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires	7	$552	793	793	+0	open	—	04-10 22:10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$536	561	561	+0	open	—	04-08 01:16
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	6	$535	777	222	+555	open	—	04-06 12:56
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	4	$519	996	996	+0	open	—	04-03 19:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	8	$495	729	51	+678	open	—	04-07 20:25
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	4	$382	631	0	+631	open	—	04-17 20:47
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$344	400	400	+0	open	—	04-18 00:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$334	0	434	-434	open	—	06-03 10:39
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	4	$304	200	200	+0	open	—	04-17 09:33
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	3	$295	396	396	+0	open	—	04-13 21:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	7	$288	400	400	+0	open	—	04-20 12:17
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	2	$242	200	200	+0	open	—	05-16 19:40
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$237	250	250	+0	open	—	04-08 01:16
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	2	$231	200	200	+0	open	—	04-10 22:06
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?	2	$200	118	118	+0	open	—	03-31 16:43
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	1	$200	568	0	+568	open	—	04-01 19:31
highest temperature in toronto on march 29 2026 10corhigher	15	$199	195	195	+0	open	—	03-26 14:37
highest temperature in toronto on march 27 2026 3corhigher	15	$198	299	299	+0	open	—	03-26 19:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	8	$197	128	128	+0	open	—	03-28 18:15
bitcoin above 70k on march 26	20	$190	394	390	+4	open	—	03-26 14:45
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	17	$186	188	188	+0	open	—	03-27 14:17
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$178	193	193	+0	open	—	05-14 13:06
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	2	$153	175	175	+0	open	—	04-03 23:36
highest temperature in seoul on march 29 2026 17corhigher	17	$138	339	339	+0	open	—	03-26 11:37
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$121	130	130	+0	Yes	$-1	04-26 08:50
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	6	$120	200	200	+0	open	—	04-10 21:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 10:39:51	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	434	77¢	$334	0x390957…
05-24 11:07:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	34¢	$204	0x68da1c…
05-16 19:40:43	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0x1a09ad…
05-16 12:21:58	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xb51c59…
05-14 13:06:30	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	193	37¢	$72	0x3a5d3b…
05-11 10:48:59	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	193	55¢	$106	0x124b18…
05-09 20:29:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	61¢	$366	0xaac231…
04-28 17:15:30	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	No	SELL	916	94¢	$861	0xe9f203…
04-26 08:50:52	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	130	46¢	$60	0xbc3880…
04-25 07:24:04	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	560	13¢	$73	0xb07dd0…
04-20 12:17:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	30¢	$122	0x9424ac…
04-20 09:28:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x133275…
04-20 09:27:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	88	42¢	$37	0xaaaf3c…
04-20 09:26:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x401804…
04-20 09:24:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x6386b6…
04-20 09:24:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x305603…
04-20 09:24:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	72	42¢	$30	0xeb2910…
04-18 00:16:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	400	42¢	$169	0xc10382…
04-17 23:04:34	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x064919…
04-17 21:35:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	208	44¢	$91	0x1e78b2…
04-17 21:25:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	192	44¢	$84	0x71f469…
04-17 21:13:56	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x4fa2dd…
04-17 20:55:04	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0x259eed…
04-17 20:48:10	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	141	60¢	$85	0x9a28c2…
04-17 20:47:50	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x1bee72…
04-17 09:33:26	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x366d8e…
04-16 15:56:18	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0xdccdf6…
04-16 10:49:12	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	No	BUY	300	67¢	$201	0x6ee2ec…
04-14 09:35:19	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	SELL	544	98¢	$535	0x5f42c3…
04-13 22:28:39	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0x60278a…
04-13 22:21:27	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xa89d8b…
04-13 22:21:27	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	84	47¢	$39	0x45086c…
04-13 21:41:15	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	396	10¢	$40	0x123243…
04-10 22:44:51	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0xec4ec4…
04-10 22:10:29	fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires	No	SELL	793	22¢	$171	0xef71df…
04-10 22:06:05	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	60¢	$119	0xb8495a…
04-10 21:37:55	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xd03a02…
04-09 21:00:45	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfbcf10…
04-09 21:00:41	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	53¢	$32	0xb22b32…
04-09 21:00:41	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	137	53¢	$72	0x81a8f7…
04-09 20:49:49	Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xa48fb3…
04-09 17:04:11	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	44¢	$33	0xee38dc…
04-09 11:22:27	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0xea66b9…
04-09 10:43:49	Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?	Yes	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x2729bb…
04-09 10:43:35	Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?	Yes	BUY	12	77¢	$9	0x2a0c2e…
04-09 10:38:15	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0xa7f426…
04-09 10:37:59	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0x3311c3…
04-09 10:37:57	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x5604e2…
04-09 10:37:57	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	44¢	$21	0x2577bd…
04-08 01:16:39	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	561	42¢	$236	0x2028a9…
04-08 01:16:25	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	250	15¢	$37	0xabf083…
04-07 20:25:49	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x4dece0…
04-07 12:32:27	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xb943da…
04-07 12:28:21	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	No	SELL	76	79¢	$60	0xd8108a…
04-07 12:21:55	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xb12fe3…
04-07 11:22:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x37c1ce…
04-06 13:07:19	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	83	66¢	$55	0x017f31…
04-06 12:56:25	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x6aa12d…
04-06 12:56:11	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	SELL	222	44¢	$98	0x295a09…
04-06 12:55:23	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0xa2aff8…
04-06 11:37:33	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	260	39¢	$100	0xec5dd6…
04-06 11:01:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xe330c0…
04-06 10:59:57	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	313	64¢	$200	0xedec78…
04-05 19:07:23	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	SELL	111	50¢	$55	0x9a46ee…
04-05 19:07:09	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	No	SELL	134	48¢	$64	0x8a3ea9…
04-05 19:06:51	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	71¢	$45	0xb9810d…
04-05 18:59:41	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	714	34¢	$242	0x4ecfcc…
04-05 18:33:19	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	68	73¢	$50	0x9af845…
04-05 17:43:33	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	139	43¢	$60	0xf3410e…
04-04 21:38:05	Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xcd674e…
04-04 21:35:47	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	714	42¢	$300	0x8363f8…
04-04 15:10:13	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xea31d0…
04-03 23:44:15	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x29d289…
04-03 23:42:57	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	111	54¢	$60	0xac0c86…
04-03 23:36:29	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	175	30¢	$53	0x4bbac7…
04-03 23:36:15	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	222	31¢	$69	0xcad781…
04-03 19:03:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	996	17¢	$169	0xcfad4f…
04-03 13:13:07	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x6a4a53…
04-03 13:11:51	fisa section 702 reauthorized before it expires	No	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xf4ff10…
04-03 13:10:03	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x1866d7…
04-02 23:11:31	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	68	55¢	$38	0x587da2…
04-02 23:10:53	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	202	6¢	$13	0x8c3832…
04-02 11:47:17	will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	No	BUY	134	37¢	$50	0x5500c4…
04-02 09:49:57	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0x55a17e…
04-01 21:50:43	will trump say ceasefire or peace deal during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x291831…
04-01 21:50:19	will trump say kharg or island during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x35d883…
04-01 21:49:49	will trump say congress during address to the nation 113	No	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x40f65b…
04-01 21:48:23	will trump say vance or rubio during address to the nation 473	No	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x52bf46…
04-01 21:30:17	will trump say obama during address to the nation 925 698	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x880c82…
04-01 21:29:29	will trump say fake news during address to the nation	No	BUY	92	76¢	$70	0x156380…
04-01 21:26:07	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0x9ba66f…
04-01 21:25:37	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	60	7¢	$4	0x0b2d55…
04-01 21:25:05	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x0d0b7f…
04-01 21:24:37	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	28	9¢	$3	0x0ada9b…
04-01 21:24:35	Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	No	SELL	43	9¢	$4	0xf68398…
04-01 21:24:17	will trump say mission accomplished during address to the nation	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x4b5536…
04-01 19:31:39	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	568	35¢	$200	0x4eb168…
04-01 19:28:13	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xbc8dd6…
04-01 17:00:23	Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?	No	SELL	31	75¢	$23	0x698ef2…
04-01 16:14:27	Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?	No	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0xfc0900…