Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$68

Unrealized P&L

+$39

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

Trades

237

lifetime

Volume

$12.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

$169

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 09-20 16:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

71% 62% +$486

Other

26% 44% -$247

Crypto

3% 0% -$306

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	No	+130	$84	84¢	$109	+$25	08-04 13:31
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	+50	$19	88¢	$44	+$25	09-20 16:20
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+391	$27	4¢	$16	-$11	08-02 17:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	22	$1.9K	1,300	1,200	+100	No	+$551	02-01 03:18
italy nordio reform referendum passes	23	$1.5K	1,457	1,509	-52	No	+$433	03-23 17:56
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	11	$1.1K	642	742	-100	No	+$253	01-21 07:58
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	15	$973	577	577	+0	No	+$157	01-16 09:38
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$855	900	900	+0	Yes	+$27	02-03 18:02
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$776	610	610	+0	Yes	+$102	02-03 18:02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	17	$670	1,400	1,400	+0	No	-$382	04-12 22:16
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	6	$643	400	400	+0	No	+$43	02-06 10:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	3	$340	200	200	+0	No	+$20	04-10 10:09
trump invokes war powers against iran by march 31 2026	4	$330	324	201	+123	Yes	-$107	02-19 11:24
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31	2	$300	200	200	+0	No	+$88	08-07 10:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$288	200	200	+0	Yes	+$36	04-01 07:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$280	600	0	+600	Yes	-$280	05-29 16:53
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	11	$265	1,600	0	+1,600	Yes	-$265	02-02 22:44
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	4	$254	300	300	+0	Yes	+$94	02-03 18:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$240	800	0	+800	Yes	-$240	04-03 15:23
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	5	$233	700	0	+700	Yes	-$233	04-01 14:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$213	500	0	+500	Yes	+$287	02-05 20:37
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	4	$184	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$184	02-01 23:45
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	7	$134	1,400	0	+1,400	Yes	-$134	02-28 06:42
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	14	$131	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$77	02-25 21:38
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	4	$125	410	0	+410	Yes	-$125	02-28 16:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$118	100	100	+0	Yes	+$8	04-01 08:10
nothing ever happens khamenei	2	$111	80	80	+0	No	+$23	02-05 14:06
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$109	100	50	+50	open	—	09-20 16:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$108	61	61	+0	No	+$8	01-20 13:54
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	1	$84	130	0	+130	open	—	08-04 13:31
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$76	55	55	+0	No	+$18	02-03 18:03
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	3	$73	100	0	+100	No	+$27	06-25 00:40
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	6	$64	200	0	+200	open	—	09-17 06:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 16:20:34	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xe7258d…
09-17 06:31:40	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	141	32¢	$45	0x3c2eb9…
09-11 08:22:27	Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x160871…
09-08 06:46:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	120	42¢	$51	0xad24d2…
08-28 14:51:31	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x185209…
08-28 14:28:49	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	97	52¢	$51	0x383aa1…
08-13 08:39:09	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xc25ce7…
08-10 14:14:52	anthony fauci charged by december 31 20260729165802089	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x36d878…
08-10 14:14:19	anthony fauci charged by december 31 20260729165802089	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xaaf7b7…
08-10 14:12:12	anthony fauci charged by december 31 20260729165802089	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x6b2ef1…
08-10 14:12:01	anthony fauci charged by december 31 20260729165802089	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xc51044…
08-07 10:49:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x5c18aa…
08-04 14:04:08	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x766d4c…
08-04 13:31:39	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	No	BUY	130	65¢	$84	0x382350…
08-02 17:51:20	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	3¢	$3	0x605b0d…
06-25 00:40:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	87	73¢	$63	0x0f856d…
06-24 21:59:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xcb7e5d…
06-24 21:59:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	No	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0x6b2c69…
06-24 17:23:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x92fe86…
06-06 16:13:36	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	8¢	$4	0x31f317…
06-05 11:04:55	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	8¢	$3	0x670ac3…
06-01 09:40:40	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x12a0dd…
05-31 11:06:36	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	8¢	$12	0x33f187…
05-31 06:08:59	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x188a1b…
05-29 16:53:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x3ada16…
05-21 13:50:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	310	54¢	$166	0xa0d2d2…
05-21 13:49:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x065d56…
05-21 13:49:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xeb3fb2…
05-21 13:38:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0xa7d98a…
05-21 13:38:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x92fc26…
05-21 13:38:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	54¢	$17	0xc8bc4c…
05-21 13:38:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	54¢	$16	0x33aca7…
04-12 22:16:09	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	525	0¢	$2	0x2f336d…
04-12 22:13:59	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xf6e686…
04-12 22:13:29	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x92a86f…
04-12 22:12:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x5dedf6…
04-12 22:12:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0x123b84…
04-12 22:12:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xce5fbb…
04-10 10:09:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x441eab…
04-03 15:23:03	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	300	15¢	$45	0x1e6f53…
04-01 14:12:11	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x45a26d…
04-01 08:10:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0x57dac0…
04-01 07:21:31	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0x90c25a…
04-01 07:06:41	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x00555f…
03-29 23:37:10	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x408876…
03-29 21:57:56	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x4a89e3…
03-26 08:33:13	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	400	41¢	$164	0x2f3b2c…
03-26 08:15:49	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0x648c3a…
03-25 19:57:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	400	35¢	$140	0x3064bd…
03-23 22:07:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	178	80¢	$142	0xe9bf0e…
03-23 21:29:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x00891e…
03-23 21:27:53	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xd45e43…
03-23 21:05:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x6ef2f7…
03-23 19:53:39	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0xd3b54a…
03-23 17:56:03	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	SELL	556	100¢	$556	0xde6510…
03-22 21:51:51	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	SELL	317	43¢	$136	0x6b9ed9…
02-28 16:54:11	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	57	13¢	$7	0xd06b8d…
02-28 16:48:37	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	152	13¢	$20	0x67706c…
02-28 16:21:17	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x710e65…
02-28 06:42:57	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0x79d3a0…
02-28 06:42:41	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	230	3¢	$7	0xbd847c…
02-28 06:42:29	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x378bee…
02-28 06:42:25	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x81adc1…
02-28 06:42:23	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	450	3¢	$14	0xf081cd…
02-27 09:58:39	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xd9c34b…
02-25 21:38:30	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	750	3¢	$20	0xbe2f4f…
02-25 21:38:18	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	SELL	250	3¢	$7	0x92bf02…
02-21 22:21:32	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	400	34¢	$136	0x0e7325…
02-20 15:40:42	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0xe4c95a…
02-20 10:19:00	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	88	4¢	$3	0xafc902…
02-20 10:19:00	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x457a80…
02-20 03:56:22	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	419	4¢	$16	0x59db14…
02-19 16:11:30	Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x3568ca…
02-19 15:15:58	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x9e3f9f…
02-19 13:46:08	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xddcd49…
02-19 13:12:08	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x9142b5…
02-19 12:43:48	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	174	36¢	$63	0x274811…
02-19 11:24:02	trump invokes war powers against iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	151	55¢	$83	0x8d9eee…
02-19 08:45:42	trump invokes war powers against iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0xf8bcbe…
02-18 21:18:44	trump invokes war powers against iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x0b51e6…
02-18 19:51:52	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x2134a4…
02-18 18:48:24	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	612	36¢	$220	0x48ffae…
02-18 18:06:02	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x34708b…
02-18 18:02:20	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x952ad6…
02-18 17:51:06	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf6e52c…
02-18 17:31:06	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x705823…
02-18 13:06:56	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	600	39¢	$234	0xc0cbee…
02-18 02:32:05	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0xc27ae4…
02-18 00:25:49	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	4	36¢	$2	0x9300b6…
02-16 11:33:37	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	SELL	27	49¢	$13	0xacb238…
02-15 23:06:37	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	SELL	99	49¢	$49	0xdff749…
02-15 21:26:23	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	BUY	126	36¢	$45	0x0e08d8…
02-15 19:13:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbfba1d…
02-15 19:13:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb5ab38…
02-15 19:13:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	28	39¢	$11	0xee5d1b…
02-15 19:13:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xc2daf2…
02-15 19:12:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0x333a02…
02-15 18:46:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x4e5101…
02-15 01:22:05	italy nordio reform referendum passes	No	SELL	353	49¢	$173	0x251507…
02-14 14:38:05	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	230	39¢	$90	0x9ecb00…