Thrifty-Handicap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$181

Hit rate

53.5%

Resolved

435

Trades

1,337

lifetime

Volume

$316.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$236

Open exposure

$225

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-24 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 111 days

Categories

Politics

55% 26% -$9,801

Crypto

18% 31% -$12,233

Other

16% 32% +$5,010

Sports

11% 32% -$2,566

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes		+3,477	$250	4¢	$141	-$109	07-25 01:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No		-87	-$375	97¢	$-84	+$290	06-18 10:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	20	$18.5K	19,369	19,369	+0	Yes	+$3,127	06-18 00:14
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	82	$13.6K	85,565	33,698	+51,866	Yes	+$592	02-09 02:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$13.5K	14,248	14,248	+0	Yes	+$7,064	04-07 23:17
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	10	$10.7K	14,654	5,667	+8,986	Yes	-$3,052	06-14 17:15
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	10	$9.6K	21,316	21,316	+0	No	-$1,772	01-18 00:03
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$6.7K	5,937	5,937	+0	Yes	+$2,192	02-28 06:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	11	$6.5K	4,760	4,760	+0	No	+$1,649	05-31 08:59
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	7	$6.2K	3,705	3,705	+0	No	+$563	05-31 08:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$6.1K	4,853	4,853	+0	Yes	+$1,436	06-18 00:15
bitcoin above 70k on february 7	10	$5.4K	5,119	4,389	+731	No	+$2,369	02-07 15:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$5.3K	7,043	1,268	+5,776	No	+$2,629	04-21 20:23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	5	$5.0K	3,109	3,196	-87	open	—	06-18 10:13
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	14	$4.9K	40,179	4,406	+35,773	Yes	-$1,346	04-22 19:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$4.7K	4,261	3,871	+389	No	+$661	06-22 15:16
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	17	$4.7K	8,293	7,182	+1,111	Yes	+$276	06-20 23:46
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	4	$4.2K	2,451	2,451	+0	No	+$420	02-23 21:22
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	6	$3.9K	4,707	4,053	+654	No	-$225	06-15 10:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	11	$3.6K	6,076	4,829	+1,247	No	-$648	06-18 21:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	7	$3.5K	4,410	2,989	+1,421	No	-$550	05-30 07:37
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	9	$3.5K	4,486	2,020	+2,466	No	+$1,897	04-21 20:22
bitcoin above 70k on february 9	10	$3.4K	3,561	3,561	+0	Yes	+$1,049	02-09 18:09
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$3.4K	6,133	2,018	+4,116	No	+$1,992	06-28 03:25
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$3.1K	3,226	3,226	+0	Yes	-$710	06-28 00:34
will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	4	$2.7K	4,180	0	+4,180	Yes	+$1,445	07-07 11:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$2.7K	2,552	2,552	+0	open	—	08-25 15:59
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	4	$2.6K	5,153	5,153	+0	Yes	-$2,416	02-28 07:27
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	6	$2.6K	9,531	9,531	+0	No	-$269	06-11 21:21
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	4	$2.5K	4,235	4,235	+0	No	-$427	01-30 00:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$2.5K	1,617	1,617	+0	No	+$518	03-18 04:38
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	3	$2.5K	8,236	0	+8,236	No	-$2,505	02-24 16:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 20:58:53	UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)	Movsar Evloev	BUY	280	49¢	$137	0x2c8750…
10-24 20:18:44	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0xc3c9c9…
10-24 20:17:23	UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Petr Yan	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x07f885…
09-20 01:24:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	566	5¢	$30	0xde0012…
09-20 01:23:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,321	5¢	$70	0xac5348…
09-19 23:50:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	708	14¢	$100	0x4b2441…
09-19 23:25:58	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,153	11¢	$126	0x721b18…
09-19 23:21:30	UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Arman Tsarukyan	BUY	1,014	73¢	$740	0x8ea55a…
08-25 15:59:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,302	63¢	$820	0xedde74…
08-17 08:59:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	3,522	5¢	$184	0x0bf83d…
08-15 02:07:54	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15 makhachev win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	1,158	12¢	$137	0x016ae3…
08-04 12:25:27	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	1,026	49¢	$500	0x16244d…
08-02 02:27:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,302	47¢	$615	0xcc8ef7…
08-01 19:12:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	6,848	3¢	$200	0x7e9f51…
07-31 14:22:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,250	50¢	$625	0xec0c05…
07-28 04:30:28	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	462	65¢	$300	0x906013…
07-28 04:15:24	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	4,094	10¢	$404	0xf811ed…
07-28 04:11:24	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	SELL	500	25¢	$126	0xb0efa6…
07-28 04:10:51	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	SELL	300	26¢	$78	0x48dd08…
07-27 01:54:39	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	483	64¢	$309	0x0ea1a3…
07-27 00:13:36	Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	Yes	BUY	410	62¢	$254	0xcebf2b…
07-26 23:18:25	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7afcf0…
07-26 23:18:01	bitcoin up or down july 26 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x2d00e8…
07-25 01:46:57	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x14e136…
07-25 01:45:10	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	Yes	BUY	566	88¢	$500	0x3c65f3…
07-25 01:41:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,250	52¢	$650	0xc75847…
07-25 01:40:21	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,477	7¢	$250	0xd3e0fa…
07-25 01:37:45	us announces halt in iran offensive operations by august 15	Yes	BUY	1,195	46¢	$545	0xac9d56…
07-25 01:13:13	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	Yes	BUY	139	86¢	$120	0x7cdabe…
07-25 01:12:06	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xfd5286…
07-25 01:11:31	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	Yes	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0x8998bc…
07-25 01:11:09	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 31 2026 20260714212508553	Yes	BUY	340	73¢	$250	0x5ce405…
07-25 00:54:43	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 24 2026 20260714212508552	Yes	BUY	1,686	12¢	$200	0x61fe3b…
07-23 00:30:31	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	3,321	6¢	$200	0x447268…
07-21 19:58:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	No	BUY	2,213	23¢	$500	0x2643a8…
07-21 19:52:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	909	11¢	$100	0xea923b…
07-18 22:25:33	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	882	11¢	$97	0x6863f7…
07-18 22:25:13	Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xff3a15…
07-18 22:24:39	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	4,667	1¢	$56	0xf7face…
07-18 22:24:01	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	2,174	2¢	$50	0xd47955…
07-18 22:23:42	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	3,571	7¢	$250	0x5f0529…
07-18 22:22:58	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	1,034	3¢	$30	0xa8b203…
07-18 22:15:13	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	3,622	6¢	$200	0xb31b9f…
07-18 22:02:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	1,693	18¢	$300	0x8a5fe0…
07-18 22:01:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	3,585	20¢	$700	0x25dbd0…
07-14 19:22:26	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,284	35¢	$1,500	0xbdfcf8…
07-10 19:34:46	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 goals lamine yamal gte1	Yes	BUY	337	35¢	$118	0x4ee0d4…
07-10 19:28:38	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 goals mikel oyarzabal gte1	Yes	BUY	306	39¢	$120	0xbc21b0…
07-10 19:27:50	Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	674	58¢	$391	0xed85ae…
07-10 19:14:50	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	947	75¢	$706	0xc36d20…
07-07 11:43:28	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	BUY	979	61¢	$597	0x990c6f…
07-07 11:31:47	Switzerland vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	404	48¢	$194	0x326177…
07-07 11:25:11	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	786	63¢	$495	0x58a1df…
07-07 11:24:14	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	Yes	BUY	748	66¢	$494	0x757852…
07-07 11:15:31	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	858	64¢	$549	0xbe5cd2…
07-06 18:57:01	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals rafael leao gte1	Yes	BUY	924	18¢	$163	0x32fbb3…
07-06 18:56:17	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals mikel oyarzabal gte1	Yes	BUY	322	40¢	$129	0x05e73c…
07-06 18:55:50	Portugal vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	450	44¢	$198	0xd149f2…
07-06 18:55:20	Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	832	28¢	$233	0xb2dec5…
07-06 10:17:35	will spain reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149737	Yes	BUY	938	52¢	$488	0x14e9a9…
07-06 10:16:49	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	Yes	BUY	909	66¢	$600	0xaa056e…
07-06 10:16:14	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	1,070	65¢	$700	0xef0e8d…
07-05 19:22:47	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 goals vinicius junior gte1	Yes	BUY	1,000	40¢	$400	0x2cad35…
07-04 20:26:29	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	Yes	SELL	1,381	100¢	$1,379	0xfcb43b…
07-04 16:55:38	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 first half team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	838	15¢	$128	0x225f44…
07-04 16:54:17	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 goals ismael saibari gte2	Yes	BUY	983	7¢	$65	0x4e47f2…
07-04 16:51:25	Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	2,950	6¢	$177	0x1bf04a…
07-04 01:05:05	Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	517	23¢	$119	0x078e97…
07-03 19:40:10	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 assists lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	319	43¢	$137	0x95cb0b…
07-03 19:39:47	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 goals lionel messi gte2	Yes	BUY	413	30¢	$124	0x611445…
07-03 19:35:34	fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 btts	Yes	BUY	771	42¢	$324	0x64e41c…
07-03 02:04:31	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 btts	Yes	BUY	860	53¢	$456	0xed5f57…
07-02 22:57:02	Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	BUY	1,154	13¢	$150	0x699a03…
07-01 11:24:13	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	Yes	BUY	3,047	23¢	$700	0x6b1549…
07-01 11:23:17	will england reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149753	Yes	BUY	1,378	36¢	$496	0x94612d…
07-01 11:09:02	Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	795	74¢	$588	0x1781f8…
07-01 10:31:05	will argentina reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149745	Yes	BUY	1,466	68¢	$991	0xe93b4c…
07-01 10:30:50	will brazil reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149717	Yes	BUY	1,632	36¢	$591	0x9a6e5e…
07-01 10:29:14	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	Yes	BUY	1,381	72¢	$994	0x376da5…
07-01 10:28:11	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 btts	Yes	BUY	865	57¢	$493	0x847495…
07-01 01:00:40	Mexico vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	393	54¢	$212	0x77fd7d…
07-01 01:00:17	Mexico to score first vs. Ecuador?	Yes	BUY	346	52¢	$180	0x1e0f8b…
07-01 00:59:43	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	688	56¢	$385	0xe90dbc…
07-01 00:59:02	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	2,236	64¢	$1,431	0xbf181e…
06-30 01:00:59	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	1,458	24¢	$350	0x84cd8d…
06-30 00:58:52	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	BUY	1,732	57¢	$987	0xe919b2…
06-29 16:58:49	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts	Yes	BUY	784	51¢	$400	0xb774a3…
06-28 03:25:37	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	169	31¢	$53	0xa4ce29…
06-28 03:25:22	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,848	30¢	$562	0x844ed4…
06-28 03:21:38	Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria?	Yes	BUY	445	45¢	$198	0x9cc04d…
06-28 03:07:31	Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria?	Yes	BUY	769	12¢	$94	0xf8adba…
06-28 02:52:43	Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?	Yes	BUY	773	42¢	$324	0x89fca5…
06-28 00:54:37	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	1,731	16¢	$277	0x125092…
06-28 00:34:34	Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,613	18¢	$287	0x45248a…
06-27 16:55:23	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	404	48¢	$194	0x594b29…
06-27 11:43:14	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,123	26¢	$292	0x71cf9c…
06-27 11:11:44	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,367	26¢	$358	0xfa34c4…
06-26 08:36:28	Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	880	45¢	$396	0xd0ada0…
06-26 08:33:17	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	531	45¢	$239	0x24fe11…
06-25 22:56:28	fifwc tun nld 2026 06 25 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	275	16¢	$44	0x51aa65…