Ideal-Peasant — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.5%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

121

840 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$239

$712 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 11-05 05:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 70% -$20

Politics

5% 0% -$8

Other

3% 0% -$8

Sports

2% 0% -$13

Tech

1% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 23:45 UTC	113	$83	470	20	+450	Down	-$12	01-29 00:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 00:00 UTC	30	$32	178	14	+164	Down	-$5	01-29 00:11
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	114	$29	53	54	-2	Yes	-$3	01-30 16:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 00:30 UTC	14	$21	66	0	+66	Down	-$21	01-29 00:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 00:15 UTC	17	$20	30	1	+28	Down	-$19	01-29 00:25
will bitcoin dip to 82k january 26 1	59	$17	29	29	+0	Yes	+$9	01-30 01:43
solana up or down january 28 1pm et	3	$15	29	0	+29	Down	+$4	01-28 18:00
xrp up or down january 28 7pm et	9	$13	44	0	+44	Down	-$13	01-29 00:21
solana up or down january 28 7pm et	8	$13	23	2	+20	Down	-$8	01-29 02:11
nba sas cha 2026 01 31	2	$13	21	0	+21	Hornets	-$13	01-31 17:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 23:30 UTC	9	$12	70	5	+64	Up	+$53	01-28 23:44
solana up or down january 28 4pm et	7	$10	43	0	+43	Up	-$10	01-28 21:47
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	6	$10	11	11	+0	open	—	05-18 14:10
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$10	101	101	+0	No	-$8	02-01 01:10
ethereum up or down on january 29	60	$9	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	01-29 14:02
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	4	$8	78	78	+0	No	$0	05-13 10:41
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	27	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	01-30 16:29
xrp up or down january 29 1am et	5	$7	25	0	+25	Up	-$7	01-29 06:07
xrp up or down january 28 4pm et	5	$7	13	0	+13	Down	+$6	01-28 21:47
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	05-17 14:57
solana up or down january 29 2pm et	5	$7	20	0	+20	Up	-$7	01-29 19:38
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 19:00 UTC	5	$6	8	1	+8	Up	+$2	01-29 19:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 22:15 UTC	9	$6	22	2	+21	Up	-$6	01-29 22:25
Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	09-10 18:51
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 18:00 UTC	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	-$5	01-28 18:00
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	50	$5	8	7	+1	Yes	+$2	01-29 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	09-11 11:34
xrp up or down january 28 5pm et	3	$4	20	0	+20	Up	+$16	01-28 22:21
Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	09-11 03:32
Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$4	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	09-10 21:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 05:04:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3d4596…
09-11 12:24:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x875ae7…
09-11 12:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x06c36d…
09-11 11:56:28	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x727cce…
09-11 11:54:24	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xee35dd…
09-11 11:49:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x92c71b…
09-11 11:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x45f794…
09-11 11:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xe3835e…
09-11 11:22:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x551d63…
09-11 11:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x394f67…
09-11 11:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf994c0…
09-11 10:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x22c951…
09-11 10:52:52	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xe67004…
09-11 10:47:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x086645…
09-11 10:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x4d131a…
09-11 10:37:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-11 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x4680b0…
09-11 10:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x13f8dd…
09-11 10:17:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x62d268…
09-11 08:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x095017…
09-11 07:57:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x621e59…
09-11 07:46:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa8618d…
09-11 07:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x213073…
09-11 06:59:34	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x232f05…
09-11 06:54:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb0b651…
09-11 06:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xd08bc8…
09-11 06:04:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x8f667b…
09-11 05:56:15	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9e5ab4…
09-11 05:54:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xab7add…
09-11 05:51:16	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7ddff3…
09-11 05:49:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xad7b57…
09-11 05:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x456cc0…
09-11 05:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x1ee3b3…
09-11 05:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x5fda84…
09-11 05:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe98084…
09-11 05:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xc618e2…
09-11 05:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x2db95d…
09-11 05:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x7908e1…
09-11 04:59:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x6ad191…
09-11 04:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2ae42b…
09-11 04:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xb58dad…
09-11 04:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8d39a9…
09-11 04:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xef6f5a…
09-11 04:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9e86e5…
09-11 04:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xa4a12c…
09-11 03:54:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x5df537…
09-11 03:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xcb0791…
09-11 03:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xbdeb6c…
09-11 03:32:43	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3fa163…
09-11 03:29:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xe2578d…
09-11 03:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe353ed…
09-11 03:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xc419ba…
09-11 03:07:18	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa83d1e…
09-11 03:04:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xa2470f…
09-11 02:59:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc37b70…
09-11 02:09:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xf5e061…
09-11 01:47:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x5d87e6…
09-11 01:44:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x7eab18…
09-11 01:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xcd1083…
09-11 00:59:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x8513ef…
09-11 00:29:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xa09e65…
09-11 00:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x091b46…
09-11 00:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x4cff25…
09-10 23:59:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x8255c5…
09-10 23:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xa4d5b3…
09-10 23:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x373e5d…
09-10 23:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6d21ce…
09-10 23:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x4b56de…
09-10 23:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb99ea9…
09-10 22:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x25b187…
09-10 21:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x264293…
09-10 21:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x6cbaca…
09-10 21:44:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x79deb2…
09-10 21:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xe0d5c7…
09-10 21:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xde2ab3…
09-10 21:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xa67790…
09-10 21:11:16	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x524fea…
09-10 21:09:07	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xe66707…
09-10 21:04:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x8190d2…
09-10 20:44:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xa2e096…
09-10 20:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x531816…
09-10 20:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xc5fb99…
09-10 20:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x979c57…
09-10 20:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x92e449…
09-10 20:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xa04913…
09-10 20:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x396f16…
09-10 20:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x6f6650…
09-10 20:04:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xbac5e6…
09-10 19:59:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x06db59…
09-10 19:41:09	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe400bc…
09-10 19:39:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xb659ed…
09-10 19:25:31	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd664e4…
09-10 19:24:27	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xc49d75…
09-10 19:21:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x33c737…
09-10 19:19:27	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x446774…
09-10 19:14:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xb23c03…
09-10 19:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x87df79…
09-10 19:04:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xd945e7…
09-10 19:01:12	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb90a97…
09-10 18:59:04	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x4a42ca…
09-10 18:51:36	Ethereum Up or Down - September 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x8f848d…