Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$126

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-23

last 09-17 07:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

80% 52% -$7

Politics

17% 64% +$5

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes		+6	$2	16¢	$1	-$1	08-15 05:24
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+6	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	08-14 16:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will trump say transgender during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255816	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	07-24 13:47
Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	-$2	08-26 11:26
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-21 18:30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	-$2	09-12 07:41
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-01 13:05
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	1	$2	6	+6	open	—	08-15 05:24
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-11 23:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	+$4	08-04 00:28
Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-05 08:30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-17 07:42
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	08-02 13:52
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-13 14:16
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-24 21:10
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-08 08:52
will rklb reach 88 by august 17 2026	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-17 05:45
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-13 22:19
spx up or down on august 13 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Up	+$1	08-13 06:16
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-16 00:45
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-02 05:08
will trump say job 15 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421449	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-04 08:28
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	08-16 09:14
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-23 12:56
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-12 10:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-02 01:03
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	08-26 19:33
will trump say no no no during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421454	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-05 00:30
will mu reach 960 by august 10 2026	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-10 10:10
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	open	—	08-14 16:23
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	08-02 21:54
will iran target a arab country on august 6 2026 20260801004719123	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-01 21:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 07:42:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf330b6…
09-12 07:41:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x980d79…
09-11 23:28:06	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x91a11d…
09-07 11:37:33	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x44a68b…
09-02 01:03:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xec6f86…
09-01 16:59:25	Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x09df98…
08-26 19:33:00	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x20cd4a…
08-26 11:26:54	Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x5c5ae5…
08-26 03:03:21	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8e508e…
08-25 19:02:39	Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xd7ae0c…
08-24 21:10:19	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x0a1287…
08-23 12:56:12	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe0983f…
08-22 15:38:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x06c4d6…
08-21 18:30:19	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x36ca83…
08-17 05:45:01	will rklb reach 88 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa726f4…
08-16 21:44:01	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc7bf0d…
08-16 09:14:34	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x7b768e…
08-16 00:45:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x2f5859…
08-15 14:30:34	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xd68cb5…
08-15 05:24:03	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x7941ee…
08-14 16:23:54	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x4172c0…
08-14 06:19:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x11300a…
08-13 22:19:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x645f8a…
08-13 14:16:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xd16651…
08-13 06:16:12	spx up or down on august 13 2026	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x350c82…
08-12 10:13:48	Will White House post 200+ posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xf4d63b…
08-12 02:12:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x54e9ef…
08-11 18:12:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xac1f92…
08-10 10:10:25	will mu reach 960 by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd926a7…
08-10 01:06:49	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xa0bf97…
08-08 16:53:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xd61a40…
08-08 08:52:39	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x312bac…
08-08 00:52:28	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0xe8bf15…
08-05 16:32:27	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x5f4838…
08-05 08:30:44	Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x15129a…
08-05 00:30:09	will trump say no no no during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421454	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xad03ef…
08-04 16:29:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x92849c…
08-04 08:28:54	will trump say job 15 times during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421449	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x125c32…
08-04 00:28:29	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x4244ab…
08-03 16:27:03	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x2a8a38…
08-03 08:25:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xa276df…
08-02 21:54:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x050b8d…
08-02 13:52:33	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xa26e18…
08-02 05:08:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x5afc36…
08-01 21:07:27	will iran target a arab country on august 6 2026 20260801004719123	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xf3e91b…
08-01 13:05:24	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xbe616f…
08-01 00:57:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xacae44…
07-31 16:57:27	Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x6e1e2d…
07-31 08:57:14	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x3d62d4…
07-30 21:45:17	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x047051…
07-30 07:12:17	Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x6fe52c…
07-29 21:33:44	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb8e5a6…
07-29 10:25:27	New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7e7cd6…
07-28 23:49:56	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x82be00…
07-28 09:38:49	another pandemic before gta vi	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x2a6e7d…
07-27 15:01:57	will trump say drill baby drill during michigan remarks 20260724162420368	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x7a4caa…
07-27 01:59:24	will trump say hottest during michigan remarks 20260724162420370	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xb260f0…
07-27 01:58:43	will boeing say dividend during earnings call 20260724221853561	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x91f3fe…
07-26 13:57:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x7f4c7f…
07-26 01:49:46	will trump say supreme court during michigan remarks 20260724162420375	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xdae888…
07-25 13:49:01	ups quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 28 2026 1pt66	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x2005ac…
07-25 01:47:21	nvts quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 27 2026 neg0pt04	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb218cd…
07-24 13:47:00	will trump say transgender during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255816	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xd5541c…
07-24 01:46:34	arcc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt47	Yes	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x907328…
07-23 13:45:31	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x461565…
07-23 01:44:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x700c06…