Notable-Maiden — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$184

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

75.7%

Resolved

452

Trades

652

lifetime

Volume

$5.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-17

last 08-16 19:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 65% -$142

Other

1% 7% -$27

Politics

0% 25% -$8

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	99¢	$5	+$0	05-10 18:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 00:05 UTC	2	$163	90	89	+0	Up	+$16	03-22 00:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 01:25 UTC	2	$115	76	75	+1	Up	+$36	03-19 01:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 06:55 UTC	8	$80	44	44	+0	Up	+$7	03-17 07:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 19:35 UTC	3	$71	64	36	+27	Down	+$2	03-18 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:35 UTC	2	$71	42	41	+0	Up	+$11	03-18 18:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 06:10 UTC	3	$60	36	35	+0	Up	+$11	03-17 06:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 12:50 UTC	3	$57	38	37	+1	Up	+$17	03-17 12:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 03:05 UTC	2	$55	36	36	+1	Up	+$16	03-19 03:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 02:20 UTC	2	$53	44	44	+0	Up	+$34	03-22 02:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 04:40 UTC	2	$51	37	36	+1	Up	+$21	03-18 04:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:05 UTC	3	$50	30	30	+0	Up	+$10	03-17 16:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 06:15 UTC	2	$49	29	29	+0	Up	+$9	03-19 06:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 22:20 UTC	2	$47	28	27	+0	Up	+$8	03-18 22:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 15:40 UTC	2	$47	27	27	+0	Up	+$7	03-17 15:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:45 UTC	2	$45	26	25	+0	Down	+$5	03-18 18:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 06:05 UTC	2	$44	34	34	+0	Up	+$24	03-17 06:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 12:30 UTC	3	$43	28	28	+0	Up	+$13	03-17 12:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 18:40 UTC	2	$42	22	22	+0	Up	+$2	03-18 18:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 22:30 UTC	2	$42	22	22	+0	Down	+$2	03-18 22:35
bitcoin up or down april 5 2026 10pm et	2	$41	21	21	+0	Up	+$1	04-06 02:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 13:05 UTC	3	$39	25	24	+0	Up	+$9	03-17 13:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 05:30 UTC	2	$37	22	22	+0	Down	+$7	03-20 05:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:40 UTC	3	$36	22	21	+0	Down	+$7	03-18 05:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 01:00 UTC	2	$35	20	20	+0	Up	+$5	03-18 01:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 05:45 UTC	2	$34	25	25	+0	Down	+$15	03-18 05:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 04:05 UTC	2	$34	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	03-18 04:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-18 02:05 UTC	2	$34	19	19	+0	Up	+$4	03-18 02:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 02:05 UTC	2	$33	55	0	+55	Down	-$33	03-22 02:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 06:55 UTC	3	$33	18	18	+0	Down	+$3	03-19 07:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-20 00:05 UTC	2	$32	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	03-20 00:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-16 19:05:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xefe0f0…
08-16 19:05:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xedb25b…
08-16 19:05:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4b0973…
08-16 18:45:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x71e597…
08-16 18:45:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9076a8…
08-16 18:43:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x40045b…
08-16 16:25:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x7dc2d9…
08-16 15:56:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xe37fb5…
08-16 07:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x461aa4…
08-16 06:55:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x87e98d…
08-16 06:50:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:50 UTC	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xa194ed…
08-16 06:50:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbdacce…
08-16 06:46:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xc24d30…
08-16 06:46:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xbef71c…
08-16 06:45:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x42fb34…
08-16 06:42:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xcbeeed…
08-16 05:41:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 05:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x556c45…
08-16 05:26:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 05:20 UTC	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$6	0x2df5f8…
08-16 05:21:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x16d997…
08-16 04:56:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 04:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf903fd…
08-16 04:50:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 04:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x1b693c…
08-16 04:48:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0xa75676…
08-16 01:00:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x5645c7…
08-16 01:00:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x11cf76…
08-15 20:25:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xd72d7c…
08-15 19:21:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xff836a…
08-15 19:16:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xc40446…
08-15 18:57:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x3aa03c…
08-15 18:56:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 18:55 UTC	Up	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x5d9075…
08-15 18:05:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd1f4fc…
08-15 17:57:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0x395fc5…
08-15 17:52:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xfc62cf…
05-14 05:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x87dd15…
05-13 04:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xf9b057…
05-12 06:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x8927e5…
05-12 04:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x37cade…
05-12 04:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xe9b4a1…
05-12 03:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x4f685c…
05-12 03:45:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x672d93…
05-12 03:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0c73b8…
05-12 03:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x3c6eea…
05-11 06:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x62428f…
05-11 06:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xddcb78…
05-11 05:56:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x6d68ce…
05-11 05:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x4f3638…
05-11 05:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x256bec…
05-11 05:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x69fa6d…
05-11 05:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xb6ba7d…
05-11 05:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xc3365e…
05-10 23:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x42bfa9…
05-10 19:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0xe8e56e…
05-10 18:23:00	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x49f745…
05-10 16:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x6f3558…
05-10 16:21:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xd4d347…
05-10 13:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x9f760c…
05-10 07:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x34da27…
05-10 07:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x7fe281…
05-10 07:01:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x9b73d3…
05-10 07:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x7c7f64…
05-10 06:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa16fd2…
05-10 06:37:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfb4599…
05-10 06:37:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x5689ea…
05-10 05:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x89e2b6…
05-10 05:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x0db64a…
05-10 03:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x7f945b…
05-10 00:40:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xa66249…
05-09 20:38:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x97fa26…
05-09 20:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x446da6…
05-09 20:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xdfa909…
05-09 19:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x89de04…
05-09 18:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xa30e47…
05-09 18:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe680ca…
05-09 18:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x54d203…
05-09 16:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x90b910…
05-09 05:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xc8b07d…
05-08 23:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xf1cf78…
05-08 23:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x11ed98…
04-13 06:27:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xb79f00…
04-06 06:14:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 06:10 UTC	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1bbdfb…
04-06 06:06:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 06:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x79e322…
04-06 06:05:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 06:00 UTC	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4dd951…
04-06 06:03:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xa3de73…
04-06 05:51:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x02864d…
04-06 05:49:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xcf53ab…
04-06 05:46:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x9f0210…
04-06 05:45:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:40 UTC	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xfb5c0a…
04-06 05:43:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xaf337c…
04-06 05:26:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x06fa13…
04-06 05:23:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x95aaef…
04-06 04:48:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x9923a4…
04-06 04:48:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x90edf9…
04-06 04:27:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x8a9468…
04-06 04:14:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x154127…
04-06 04:06:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x6fd83a…
04-06 03:52:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 03:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x5e680b…
04-06 03:44:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x8aee3e…
04-06 03:12:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xda5c93…
04-06 03:05:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xd57160…
04-06 02:48:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-06 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x2df15d…
04-06 02:47:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x1aa099…