Miserly-Island — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$125

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

158

Trades

2,697

lifetime

Volume

$68.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$61

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 83 days

Categories

Other

46% 58% -$342

Politics

36% 65% -$519

Sports

12% 63% +$800

Crypto

5% 76% +$185

Tech

1% 67% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 138 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alberta join the US?	No		+62	$57	99¢	$61	+$4	06-07 09:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	53	$2.7K	3,180	1,979	+1,201	Yes	-$583	04-17 12:49
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	103	$2.6K	28,316	28,316	+0	Yes	-$669	08-02 12:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	95	$2.5K	30,593	24,610	+5,983	No	-$39	04-17 12:55
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	93	$2.1K	15,366	15,366	+0	Yes	+$102	08-01 10:32
Will Alberta join the US?	176	$2.0K	1,095	1,034	+62	open	—	06-07 09:41
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	249	$2.0K	27,661	27,661	+0	No	-$183	08-19 03:29
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	15	$1.7K	1,900	1,900	+0	No	+$2	07-28 18:01
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	29	$1.6K	1,400	1,400	+0	Yes	-$107	07-07 22:58
will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	10	$1.6K	900	806	+94	No	+$11	07-25 13:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	7	$1.6K	900	900	+0	No	+$28	04-12 01:41
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	26	$1.5K	1,600	1,204	+396	Yes	+$233	06-11 04:09
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	43	$1.5K	1,190	1,290	-100	No	+$86	03-11 02:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	29	$1.2K	1,822	1,822	+0	Yes	+$14	06-15 02:50
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	62	$1.2K	13,197	13,197	+0	open	—	10-25 22:31
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	22	$1.1K	883	1,090	-207	No	-$20	03-08 12:35
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	31	$1.0K	887	587	+300	Yes	+$105	09-20 16:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	5	$1.0K	702	365	+337	No	+$24	05-22 00:55
another us government shutdown by february 14	96	$1.0K	15,620	17,470	-1,850	No	+$50	02-15 01:59
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	23	$1.0K	1,235	1,533	-298	No	+$159	05-20 03:21
will wti reach 115 in july 2026	5	$974	494	494	+0	No	+$5	07-27 02:50
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	23	$914	915	915	+0	No	-$78	06-14 03:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	7	$910	798	300	+498	No	+$110	04-17 02:48
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	18	$858	1,610	1,610	+0	Yes	-$106	08-02 15:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$848	505	505	+0	open	—	08-30 04:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$813	555	300	+255	No	+$12	05-07 02:08
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	93	$802	11,186	11,186	+0	No	+$30	07-28 04:56
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	44	$758	4,418	4,418	+0	Yes	-$78	08-03 00:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$743	592	592	+0	open	—	10-27 22:55
Iran leadership change by April 30?	5	$704	400	400	+0	No	+$4	04-10 16:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	8	$674	452	246	+206	No	+$14	04-23 04:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 00:11:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	250	60¢	$150	0x9da069…
10-28 00:11:03	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	56	59¢	$33	0x9fd2a5…
10-28 00:10:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	194	59¢	$115	0x7df3a3…
10-27 23:04:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	34	57¢	$19	0x6efe7a…
10-27 23:03:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x442348…
10-27 23:01:27	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	39	55¢	$22	0x8d66f8…
10-27 22:55:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	592	58¢	$343	0x194ebc…
10-25 22:31:12	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	192	97¢	$187	0xbf84b4…
10-24 15:59:41	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	192	97¢	$186	0x268568…
10-24 11:49:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,500	3¢	$43	0x9d3393…
10-23 14:00:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0xed9822…
10-23 13:50:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xabcd0f…
10-23 13:50:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x1d781b…
10-23 13:47:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0xa36dcc…
10-23 13:45:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	77¢	$19	0xbf1d04…
10-23 13:45:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	77¢	$24	0x325cf5…
10-19 11:40:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	77¢	$115	0xb39c20…
10-17 17:42:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x854019…
10-17 17:02:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x99fcc8…
10-11 14:08:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	209	96¢	$202	0x1475b2…
10-11 13:44:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x5ba2c2…
10-11 13:42:19	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	205	96¢	$197	0x7f04ef…
10-11 11:46:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	88	4¢	$3	0x5dcf60…
10-11 10:52:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	274	4¢	$10	0xc3e966…
10-11 10:14:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x5c2cde…
10-11 10:03:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x56458c…
10-11 09:59:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	362	4¢	$14	0xa022ca…
10-10 20:50:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	392	65¢	$255	0x267064…
10-09 08:26:07	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,000	3¢	$68	0x4e2ff0…
10-09 08:17:07	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,005	3¢	$102	0xe4e491…
10-09 07:57:30	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,250	3¢	$101	0x3c0c16…
10-09 07:43:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,250	3¢	$94	0x70734a…
10-01 23:40:59	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5,634	3¢	$152	0xe7aa72…
10-01 23:38:23	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	866	3¢	$23	0xd0d876…
09-30 18:39:30	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x58b5da…
09-30 18:39:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x071d83…
09-30 18:38:53	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	401	3¢	$13	0x13cfeb…
09-30 18:37:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	410	3¢	$14	0x88763f…
09-30 18:01:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	170	3¢	$6	0x8c6b7a…
09-30 17:57:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	160	3¢	$5	0x9e2120…
09-30 17:18:20	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	81	3¢	$3	0x5067db…
09-30 17:16:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	89	3¢	$3	0xbd63d7…
09-30 17:09:12	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	131	3¢	$4	0x977348…
09-30 15:25:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	88	3¢	$3	0x0db2c8…
09-30 14:53:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xc2b6cc…
09-30 14:45:59	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xa5c060…
09-30 13:17:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0x291eaa…
09-30 13:13:00	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	190	3¢	$6	0xd3cf52…
09-30 13:11:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x8051e6…
09-30 13:09:57	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xaaeffb…
09-30 11:52:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x6001fa…
09-30 11:51:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0x614faa…
09-30 11:21:18	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	470	3¢	$16	0xe7a79d…
09-30 09:30:02	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x273fe7…
09-30 09:29:56	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x53fde4…
09-30 09:29:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x0066d7…
09-30 09:29:44	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x8d166b…
09-30 09:29:38	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0xf790be…
09-30 09:29:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x516d19…
09-30 09:27:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x8aa7b3…
09-30 09:26:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x6716e6…
09-30 09:26:47	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x9db3d0…
09-30 09:26:39	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x950d35…
09-30 09:26:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x7a6088…
09-30 09:05:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x6e73f7…
09-30 07:19:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x85a821…
09-30 07:19:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x8f75a9…
09-30 06:55:57	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x3cd115…
09-30 06:55:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0xa27abb…
09-30 06:54:38	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0xb9b0ad…
09-30 06:49:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0x799e6f…
09-30 06:41:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xa4903b…
09-30 06:13:05	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xd8b66e…
09-30 06:11:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xf978f9…
09-30 06:10:56	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xc2dbbf…
09-30 05:56:12	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x71f19a…
09-30 05:55:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xd95cd0…
09-30 05:54:44	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xc1c1f5…
09-30 05:54:02	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x1f8980…
09-30 05:39:57	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xdfc235…
09-30 05:26:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	291	3¢	$10	0x3e319c…
09-28 11:42:44	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	4¢	$70	0x01e7b7…
09-26 18:03:17	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	158	4¢	$6	0xb9799d…
09-26 18:02:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	304	4¢	$11	0x3b39c7…
09-26 17:55:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	311	4¢	$12	0xfb4d1b…
09-26 17:52:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	409	4¢	$15	0x0626bd…
09-26 17:44:06	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	319	4¢	$12	0xd92170…
09-25 15:51:35	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x1e7c15…
09-24 15:14:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	65	96¢	$62	0x3fa03e…
09-24 15:13:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	145	96¢	$139	0x380123…
09-20 16:15:10	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0xdc43e2…
09-20 13:09:57	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	257	90¢	$231	0xd30e24…
09-16 16:04:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	390	1¢	$3	0x1e66f8…
09-12 14:48:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	348	1¢	$2	0x855e3b…
09-10 09:26:54	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xd38c37…
09-10 09:26:37	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x8a7adc…
09-09 10:48:27	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	258	100¢	$257	0x38defe…
09-05 15:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf5feb9…
09-04 10:26:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x91d463…
09-04 07:53:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in September?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x19f255…