Fluid-Shortage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.90K

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

228

Trades

1,017

lifetime

Volume

$113.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$111

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-18

last 10-13 17:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Politics

52% 58% -$385

Other

35% 45% -$4,432

Crypto

11% 50% +$2,988

Tech

1% 43% +$67

Sports

0% 0% -$136

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes		+0	-$2	6¢	$0	+$2	08-12 05:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	15	$9.1K	16,811	16,811	+0	No	+$3,750	06-02 10:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	8	$7.8K	10,068	10,068	+0	Yes	-$2,271	06-14 22:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	12	$5.5K	3,487	3,487	+0	No	+$1,143	05-30 06:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	10	$5.5K	3,099	3,099	+0	No	+$574	05-31 22:08
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	16	$5.5K	2,819	2,819	+0	Yes	+$161	06-14 20:00
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	5	$5.4K	3,889	3,889	+0	Yes	+$1	06-12 19:17
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	3	$3.8K	3,449	3,449	+0	Under	-$1,258	06-15 16:46
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	37	$3.7K	1,869	2,369	-500	Yes	+$295	06-01 18:44
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	18	$3.1K	2,764	2,764	+0	No	+$576	06-30 10:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	9	$2.6K	2,088	2,088	+0	Yes	+$529	05-18 12:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	16	$2.5K	1,644	1,644	+0	No	+$618	06-10 18:30
fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 btts	1	$2.5K	237,123	0	+237,123	Yes	-$2,500	06-12 20:46
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	2	$2.5K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$524	06-17 03:04
will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	15	$2.2K	7,867	2,455	+5,412	Yes	-$402	06-09 11:00
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	18	$2.1K	2,177	2,272	-95	No	-$19	06-05 07:39
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$1.8K	1,005	1,005	-0	Yes	+$254	06-01 13:18
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	3	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$299	06-17 06:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	16	$1.7K	5,532	5,532	+0	No	-$290	07-03 20:54
will jason kelce be a groomsman at taylor swifts wedding 20260630160118470	6	$1.6K	891	891	+0	Yes	-$63	07-04 19:58
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	10	$1.6K	1,255	1,255	+0	Yes	+$178	06-04 02:52
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$140	07-02 01:06
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	2	$1.6K	2,428	0	+2,428	Yes	+$864	06-13 22:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$1.5K	2,536	0	+2,536	No	+$1,047	04-21 20:07
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	39	$1.4K	1,064	1,064	+0	No	+$631	06-13 21:53
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	10	$1.3K	6,330	6,330	+0	Yes	-$722	06-11 01:09
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	2	$1.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	No	-$767	06-17 18:52
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	11	$1.2K	3,040	0	+3,040	Yes	-$1,208	06-07 21:21
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 1pt5	2	$1.1K	955	955	+0	Under	-$439	07-04 22:54
fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 btts	9	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	$0	07-03 04:04
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	8	$982	1,957	1,957	+0	No	-$504	06-12 19:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 17:52:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x2fb5c0…
10-13 16:33:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	70	66¢	$46	0x98ef78…
10-13 16:22:18	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xe9b9cf…
10-13 08:30:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	59	19¢	$11	0x240ae3…
10-13 08:08:34	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	11	19¢	$2	0xdd67e4…
10-13 08:06:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	66	19¢	$13	0xca08ab…
10-13 08:06:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	64	19¢	$12	0x0f7ac6…
10-13 08:00:05	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0x98d513…
10-12 10:37:47	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x2fe253…
10-12 09:20:05	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0x19af76…
10-12 08:42:19	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0xe78e03…
10-12 08:21:18	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x494c3a…
10-11 17:49:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xe01cc3…
10-11 09:07:28	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	48¢	$48	0xb1f98b…
10-10 19:05:40	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0x1cc0f4…
10-10 14:39:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xffe427…
10-10 13:11:06	Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	G2 Esports	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xacf32e…
10-09 08:02:06	Hanfmann vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xfe396f…
10-09 07:26:18	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x4415e2…
10-09 07:07:33	Hanfmann vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb4fd11…
10-08 12:20:30	Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	Nongshim RedForce	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x9808dc…
10-08 07:36:46	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez	Sebastian Baez	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xd468a7…
10-08 06:05:37	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x956dbb…
10-08 05:12:55	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	Yes	SELL	230	72¢	$166	0x453141…
10-07 20:49:56	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	33	48¢	$16	0xc873da…
10-07 20:43:29	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$5	0x5840a0…
10-07 20:41:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	27	48¢	$13	0x21c28d…
10-07 11:44:52	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	SELL	163	29¢	$47	0xceb521…
10-07 11:41:49	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	SELL	180	29¢	$52	0x516c1e…
10-07 11:28:26	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x5cff09…
10-07 04:40:44	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	Yes	BUY	230	64¢	$147	0x848433…
10-07 04:09:00	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x86ce69…
10-06 19:14:15	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	BUY	250	27¢	$68	0xd2de8c…
10-06 18:03:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	150	36¢	$54	0x884b92…
10-06 09:14:01	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x3e32c2…
10-06 09:13:37	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	SELL	300	8¢	$24	0x4e7a82…
10-06 08:28:58	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	Yes	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xb45913…
10-06 08:28:51	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x55217d…
10-06 07:31:09	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0x618db2…
10-06 04:12:28	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x179189…
10-06 03:07:27	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x8b8b33…
10-05 19:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	SELL	156	100¢	$156	0x2ac18b…
10-05 17:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x5ed5b0…
10-05 17:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x4be2c3…
10-05 17:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xb9fa93…
10-05 17:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x909eab…
10-05 10:57:59	atp lehecka vachero 2026 10 05 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0xf407fc…
10-05 10:57:58	atp lehecka vachero 2026 10 05 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x40a42a…
10-05 10:57:50	atp lehecka vachero 2026 10 05 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0xdf2b7d…
10-05 10:35:46	atp lehecka vachero 2026 10 05 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf426d6…
10-05 10:33:13	atp lehecka vachero 2026 10 05 match total 22pt5	Over	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xd43867…
10-04 16:24:32	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	38¢	$0	0x98c062…
10-04 16:21:28	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	38¢	$57	0x6b977e…
10-04 15:34:46	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	150	45¢	$68	0x06a3fb…
10-04 15:28:23	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	SELL	148	49¢	$73	0x1623a4…
10-04 15:27:55	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x078a20…
10-04 15:15:14	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	150	47¢	$70	0xfc4923…
10-04 07:41:07	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	52¢	$22	0x47fabf…
10-04 07:39:35	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x8ff137…
10-04 06:58:01	Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xc6f29c…
10-03 16:36:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	150	35¢	$52	0x7019eb…
10-02 19:48:35	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x3ef08f…
10-02 12:06:47	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	36	26¢	$9	0xa745ec…
10-02 12:06:47	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x119e4d…
10-02 11:50:29	China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x2856df…
10-01 10:24:44	Fokina vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 21.5	Over	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x434e30…
10-01 02:11:12	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	46	29¢	$13	0x69ad3c…
10-01 02:11:11	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x0e4ff0…
09-30 16:53:30	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	SELL	46	17¢	$8	0xd774b7…
09-30 11:09:50	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x19dd80…
09-30 11:09:39	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0xe40160…
09-30 11:03:21	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0xbc0451…
09-30 09:39:35	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x3d4497…
09-30 05:55:03	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x475cd4…
09-30 05:48:03	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xfc946f…
09-30 05:43:23	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x531a49…
09-30 04:00:42	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	54¢	$10	0x45da1d…
09-30 03:59:15	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x7ac202…
09-30 03:46:03	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x402baf…
09-30 03:29:33	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x997ebb…
09-30 03:11:18	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xa8a455…
09-29 22:32:08	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0xe6cbe3…
09-29 22:19:09	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	SELL	56	27¢	$15	0x575fc9…
09-29 22:18:02	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	SELL	26	27¢	$7	0xb5fd3f…
09-29 18:41:06	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xf3a1cc…
09-29 15:15:29	trump renames ai by december 31	Yes	SELL	60	79¢	$48	0x5d48df…
09-29 11:20:44	trump renames ai by december 31	Yes	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0xd229a1…
09-29 00:32:41	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x47139f…
09-29 00:32:41	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	SELL	90	41¢	$37	0x0eb892…
09-28 17:06:38	trump renames ai by september 30	Yes	BUY	95	24¢	$23	0xf5ae0f…
09-28 04:43:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x421c34…
09-26 00:49:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	56	73¢	$41	0x6c9da3…
09-25 00:22:27	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	BUY	45	21¢	$9	0x9554b7…
09-24 19:36:41	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	BUY	300	29¢	$87	0xa24f76…
09-24 11:30:09	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x27b815…
09-24 11:29:29	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0x185a2b…
09-23 13:30:31	cnn politico or ms now unbanned from white house by september 30	No	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x0d9217…
09-22 11:06:57	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	145	18¢	$26	0x94c260…
09-22 10:27:40	CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xc21a7d…
09-22 10:26:34	Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	15¢	$22	0xa3e5dd…