Instructive-Pain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25.5K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.4%

Resolved

11,236

Trades

29,904

lifetime

Volume

$252.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-27 03:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 202 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 45% +$25,395

Other

7% 58% +$4

Politics

3% 67% +$86

Sports

2% 56% -$22

Tech

0% 80% +$4

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 179 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down on january 21	336	$3.6K	7,135	7,051	+84	Down	-$42	01-21 16:17
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	384	$2.9K	5,231	5,341	-111	Yes	-$71	01-21 09:03
bitcoin above 90k on january 21	238	$2.8K	4,740	4,740	+0	No	+$6	01-21 16:20
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	227	$1.6K	3,521	3,537	-16	No	+$8	01-21 03:12
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	189	$1.3K	4,318	4,442	-123	No	+$27	01-20 18:51
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	231	$1.1K	12,342	12,457	-115	No	+$11	01-21 02:45
will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 21	77	$1.1K	1,051	857	+194	No	-$39	01-21 16:57
bitcoin above 70k on february 7	145	$1.1K	1,206	1,206	+0	No	+$3	02-06 18:34
bitcoin above 78k on february 2	147	$1.0K	1,191	1,191	+0	Yes	+$10	02-02 12:25
nba tor gsw 2026 01 20	51	$920	485	485	+0	Raptors	+$6	01-21 05:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	163	$899	3,628	3,722	-94	No	+$18	01-20 01:49
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	115	$893	816	786	+31	Yes	+$13	01-21 00:29
nba nop cha 2026 02 02	124	$885	841	841	+0	Hornets	-$1	02-02 21:56
cs2 furia navi 2026 02 02	136	$847	745	745	+0	FURIA	+$5	02-02 21:09
will the price of bitcoin be between 90000 92000 on january 21	90	$816	2,206	1,125	+1,081	No	-$53	01-21 16:36
atp nava norrie 2026 01 21	54	$765	2,286	2,286	+0	Norrie	+$27	01-21 09:58
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	181	$761	15,012	15,284	-272	No	+$15	01-21 20:10
will ethereum dip to 2800 in january 2026 835	46	$712	746	746	+0	Yes	-$15	01-21 20:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-08 16:35 UTC	4	$620	1,042	727	+314	Up	+$893	07-08 16:39
lol drx t1 2026 01 18 game2	85	$595	754	794	-40	DRX	-$23	01-18 11:42
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 480 499	87	$575	1,973	1,973	+0	No	+$6	01-21 00:29
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	56	$571	1,382	1,363	+19	No	+$10	01-20 21:00
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-01-21 05:00 UTC	31	$554	1,010	772	+238	Down	-$66	01-21 08:36
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	105	$554	1,409	1,409	-0	No	-$9	01-21 05:05
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 520 539	82	$519	567	580	-13	No	+$38	01-16 16:47
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	71	$500	521	521	+0	No	+$2	02-02 21:53
bitcoin above 68k on february 8	76	$495	525	524	+1	Yes	+$4	02-06 18:10
lol lgd omg 2026 02 02	112	$494	672	672	+0	Oh My God	-$3	02-02 11:23
lol blg al 2026 01 17	64	$486	348	348	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$12	01-17 11:43
bitcoin up or down on february 2	82	$478	410	410	+0	Up	+$0	02-02 12:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 03:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1,907	1¢	$28	0xd96d0f…
10-25 03:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1,353	2¢	$28	0xe40b54…
10-24 11:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	542	2¢	$11	0xedfdad…
10-22 10:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2,684	1¢	$27	0x318978…
10-22 09:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2,604	1¢	$29	0xbe7016…
10-22 06:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2,976	1¢	$30	0x8cece3…
10-22 06:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2,004	1¢	$27	0xe93880…
10-22 04:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1,532	2¢	$27	0x63a111…
10-22 04:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2,924	1¢	$29	0x5a8c2e…
10-22 01:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2,824	1¢	$28	0x890e47…
10-21 23:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2,972	1¢	$30	0x0c6b44…
10-21 22:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3,252	1¢	$28	0x142b07…
10-21 21:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	837	2¢	$17	0x3c277b…
10-21 21:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2,728	1¢	$27	0x15c98b…
10-21 17:59:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	298	2¢	$6	0x4ece45…
10-21 17:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1,518	2¢	$28	0xa8d0d6…
10-21 17:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2,924	1¢	$29	0xcff05f…
10-21 11:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	489	4¢	$17	0xcbb01b…
10-21 08:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,720	1¢	$27	0xf735a7…
10-21 07:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,732	1¢	$27	0x11331d…
10-21 06:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1,118	1¢	$13	0xed3ab5…
10-21 04:09:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,988	1¢	$30	0x1859f4…
10-21 03:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	324	4¢	$13	0xe45ece…
10-21 02:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2,367	1¢	$30	0xb406e9…
10-21 02:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1,341	2¢	$28	0x7f7927…
10-21 01:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2,776	1¢	$28	0x1019be…
10-21 01:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2,988	1¢	$30	0xcd6313…
10-21 00:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2,700	1¢	$27	0x3f5237…
10-20 22:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2,114	1¢	$29	0x559e2e…
10-20 19:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2,959	1¢	$30	0x2f5dcb…
10-20 19:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2,620	1¢	$26	0xa9ca4b…
10-20 11:44:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,784	1¢	$28	0xf28875…
10-20 11:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2,932	1¢	$29	0x9089cb…
10-20 11:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,177	1¢	$22	0xf4e731…
10-20 09:09:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,968	1¢	$30	0xea77af…
10-20 07:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	760	1¢	$11	0x97a1d6…
10-20 06:43:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,812	1¢	$28	0x849eaa…
10-20 05:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2,988	1¢	$30	0x486a60…
10-20 04:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2,744	1¢	$27	0x8e44e2…
10-20 03:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2,181	1¢	$28	0x6c6ddd…
10-20 03:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2,745	1¢	$28	0x322d1b…
10-20 01:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2,876	1¢	$29	0x646195…
10-19 23:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2,671	1¢	$30	0xfedb87…
10-19 23:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2,331	1¢	$29	0x85d106…
10-19 19:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xa72af1…
10-19 16:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	715	1¢	$9	0x96df57…
10-19 16:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2,616	1¢	$26	0xc27396…
10-19 12:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2,848	1¢	$29	0x0f5874…
10-19 06:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2,736	1¢	$27	0x6ac6aa…
10-19 06:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2,916	1¢	$29	0x983580…
10-19 04:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2,744	1¢	$27	0xd048d1…
10-19 04:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	559	2¢	$11	0x2c9480…
10-19 03:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2,984	1¢	$30	0xfc5c5b…
10-19 01:53:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7,846	0¢	$29	0x7ca2d9…
10-19 01:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1,834	1¢	$23	0x0eba1f…
10-18 17:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2,479	1¢	$28	0x8102ee…
10-18 17:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2,045	1¢	$28	0xacd0c4…
10-18 17:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2,712	1¢	$27	0xf539f7…
10-18 15:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1,521	2¢	$28	0x99564d…
10-18 14:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1,017	3¢	$30	0xe99a63…
10-18 12:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2,694	1¢	$27	0x490c4e…
10-18 12:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2,860	1¢	$29	0x0d9abd…
10-18 12:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1,526	2¢	$28	0xe958e0…
10-18 10:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2,585	1¢	$30	0x9378e9…
10-17 12:54:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:50 UTC	Up	BUY	358	4¢	$13	0x0a672c…
10-17 12:23:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 12:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1,469	2¢	$27	0x8e4f36…
10-17 09:48:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1,147	3¢	$29	0xa501b8…
10-16 20:44:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2,836	1¢	$29	0xf9680e…
10-16 10:49:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	673	3¢	$22	0xf75d8f…
10-16 10:29:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2,968	1¢	$30	0xae80e8…
10-16 09:34:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2,776	1¢	$28	0x0383fe…
10-16 08:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2,003	1¢	$28	0x9970ad…
10-16 06:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	790	3¢	$26	0xb97468…
10-16 06:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	285	4¢	$11	0x56fb63…
10-16 05:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1,140	2¢	$27	0xab5d1f…
10-16 04:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2,706	1¢	$29	0x60912c…
10-16 02:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2,668	1¢	$27	0x267b3c…
10-16 01:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2,888	1¢	$29	0x7094ea…
10-16 00:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2,692	1¢	$27	0xc12d3c…
10-15 19:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2,708	1¢	$27	0x2827a6…
10-14 22:54:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2,960	1¢	$30	0x3250e8…
10-14 20:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2,784	1¢	$28	0x286282…
10-14 07:19:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2,768	1¢	$28	0xfa4643…
10-14 05:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1,897	1¢	$27	0x268f6a…
10-14 04:49:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	205	4¢	$7	0x521b28…
10-14 04:39:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2,972	1¢	$30	0x4fb84a…
10-14 04:09:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	963	3¢	$29	0x0758da…
10-14 02:43:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 02:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2,876	1¢	$29	0x773afe…
10-13 21:39:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2,704	1¢	$27	0xc242ee…
10-13 09:54:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2,771	1¢	$27	0x174a70…
10-13 06:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2,819	1¢	$28	0x5bffc0…
10-13 06:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3,037	1¢	$27	0x1facba…
10-13 05:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1,863	1¢	$27	0xf3bd81…
10-12 07:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2,920	1¢	$29	0x315987…
10-12 06:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2,996	1¢	$30	0x8f4964…
10-12 03:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	987	3¢	$26	0x98b81c…
10-12 01:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2,896	1¢	$29	0x7b8f60…
10-11 22:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	651	3¢	$18	0xa6f058…
10-11 22:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2,287	1¢	$28	0xcdd379…
10-11 19:39:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1,650	2¢	$28	0xaf86ff…