Charming-Pupil — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$8.02K

Hit rate

89.7%

Resolved

102

Trades

1,080

lifetime

Volume

$397.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$368

Open exposure

$54.6K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-26 11:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

99% 81% +$66,284

Sports

0% 50% -$870

Politics

0% 0% -$758

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	+52,042	$38,957	88¢	$46.1K	+$7,100	10-23 09:57
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	+6,760	$5,070	89¢	$6.0K	+$946	09-21 12:26
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	No	-2,568	-$2,540	100¢	$-2564	-$24	07-12 13:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	95	$45.1K	62,276	10,234	+52,042	open	—	10-23 09:57
will february 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	22	$33.0K	42,783	583	+42,200	Yes	+$10,283	03-03 20:09
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	19	$26.2K	27,978	5,786	+22,192	Yes	+$4,557	08-06 11:57
will global temperature increase by between 1pt05c and 1pt09c in january 2026	100	$19.9K	28,443	381	+28,061	Yes	+$8,418	02-11 13:09
will january 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record	7	$12.7K	14,269	0	+14,269	Yes	+$1,531	01-17 12:41
will global temperature increase by between 1pt10c and 1pt14c in february 2026 151	20	$12.6K	15,785	1,335	+14,449	No	+$2,122	02-26 12:34
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?	47	$9.5K	14,623	2,221	+12,402	Yes	+$4,957	05-05 11:55
will february 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record	4	$9.4K	12,471	396	+12,075	No	+$3,417	03-03 12:20
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?	6	$9.0K	10,496	0	+10,496	No	+$1,492	06-03 20:01
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?	4	$8.1K	9,991	0	+9,991	No	+$1,868	07-04 23:51
will global temperature increase by between 1pt10c and 1pt14c in march 2026	16	$7.9K	9,097	0	+9,097	No	+$1,190	03-20 14:20
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt19c in january 2026	5	$7.4K	7,938	0	+7,938	No	+$497	01-16 15:05
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	13	$7.1K	7,964	0	+7,964	No	+$901	04-17 17:32
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026?	6	$7.0K	8,142	0	+8,142	Yes	+$1,139	07-05 16:30
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	3	$6.6K	7,498	0	+7,498	No	+$884	06-05 13:31
will global temperature increase by between 1pt05c and 1pt09c in february 2026 988	5	$6.6K	6,169	750	+5,419	No	+$355	03-11 11:06
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	27	$6.2K	8,314	2,198	+6,116	No	+$725	05-05 09:20
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	7	$6.1K	7,130	0	+7,130	No	+$1,055	05-06 22:19
will global temperature increase by between 1pt20c and 1pt24c in march 2026	21	$6.0K	6,972	1,303	+5,670	No	+$610	04-07 14:33
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt24c in february 2026	39	$5.9K	16,637	6,868	+9,769	No	-$3,335	03-11 12:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$5.6K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	-$200	08-21 16:28
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?	4	$5.4K	4,745	1,000	+3,745	No	+$313	05-11 15:38
will global temperature increase by more than 1pt29c in march 2026	19	$5.4K	5,422	4,234	+1,188	No	+$210	04-07 05:47
will global temperature increase by between 1pt10c and 1pt14c in january 2026	93	$5.3K	13,395	5,986	+7,409	No	-$3,697	02-09 23:55
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	70	$5.2K	6,608	0	+6,608	Yes	+$1,427	06-05 19:24
will global temperature increase by less than 1pt00c in january 2026	10	$5.1K	5,747	0	+5,747	No	+$674	01-16 12:36
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	1	$5.1K	6,760	0	+6,760	open	—	09-21 12:26
will global temperature increase by between 1pt25c and 1pt29c in march 2026	29	$4.5K	5,176	815	+4,361	Yes	+$626	04-09 15:03
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	4	$4.5K	4,984	0	+4,984	No	+$478	05-13 22:05
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?	35	$4.5K	10,857	5,040	+5,817	No	-$2,119	05-04 11:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 11:19:36	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	35¢	$88	0x40d7be…
10-25 23:44:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1,000	3¢	$32	0x2ce555…
10-25 23:08:08	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	35¢	$59	0x643228…
10-25 14:53:14	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x8ee1ad…
10-25 12:15:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,000	79¢	$790	0x23281f…
10-23 09:57:41	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	137	80¢	$109	0x085e55…
10-22 19:10:56	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	74	80¢	$59	0x3b2e85…
10-22 13:19:11	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	35¢	$28	0xb09e35…
10-22 10:36:18	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x9bb8ba…
10-22 10:33:26	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x57054d…
10-22 09:17:09	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xf87035…
10-22 05:29:25	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	47	80¢	$38	0x857029…
10-22 03:06:18	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xcbfe80…
10-21 07:11:50	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x533032…
10-19 00:19:21	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	1,660	80¢	$1,328	0x6a3cad…
10-19 00:18:33	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	636	80¢	$509	0x6887dd…
10-18 23:39:14	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	187	35¢	$65	0xc68c8a…
10-18 17:20:39	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x331c44…
10-18 13:37:44	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0x06647c…
10-18 13:19:30	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xbc7a13…
10-18 04:31:03	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	160	80¢	$128	0xe80995…
10-17 15:11:57	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xc0c6ff…
10-17 11:43:12	Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x75a32b…
10-17 04:10:48	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	375	77¢	$289	0x66b342…
10-16 23:48:56	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x9540d2…
10-16 17:50:41	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x3bcf21…
10-16 11:39:40	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	1,666	77¢	$1,285	0x2ca63f…
10-12 02:31:14	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	3,863	66¢	$2,536	0x65929f…
10-08 05:03:01	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x6b0127…
10-08 04:58:35	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xda1bf9…
10-08 03:42:43	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	127	62¢	$79	0x8826f5…
10-08 02:18:41	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x851c88…
10-08 01:52:35	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0xe9df0d…
10-07 20:34:48	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	158	62¢	$98	0x6632d1…
10-07 20:15:14	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	130	62¢	$81	0x703f1f…
10-07 04:07:20	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	6,618	66¢	$4,364	0xb76114…
10-07 04:07:18	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xbbafda…
10-07 04:07:18	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	133	67¢	$89	0x4eca5b…
10-07 04:07:18	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x05bcc4…
10-07 03:25:20	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xb7455e…
10-06 23:51:13	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	66	60¢	$40	0x4beb2b…
10-05 12:57:31	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	3,033	66¢	$2,002	0x4117f7…
10-05 10:09:55	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0xb4de97…
10-05 10:09:55	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	1,416	69¢	$977	0x7f45bd…
10-05 10:09:53	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	598	69¢	$413	0xaff160…
10-05 10:09:53	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	550	69¢	$379	0x8ce1cb…
10-05 10:09:53	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	395	69¢	$273	0x5d6bd8…
10-04 13:16:56	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xb1c5dd…
10-01 03:55:09	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	258	69¢	$178	0x9f5e13…
10-01 01:24:27	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	39	69¢	$27	0xa883cf…
09-30 21:02:39	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x764249…
09-30 21:02:39	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x484158…
09-30 21:02:38	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	19	69¢	$13	0xf84963…
09-30 15:44:48	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	103	69¢	$71	0x75e328…
09-30 13:54:06	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	480	67¢	$324	0xdbfaaa…
09-30 11:38:12	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	244	64¢	$156	0xf98abd…
09-29 03:40:33	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x0c92a1…
09-29 02:09:23	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	852	68¢	$583	0x811a23…
09-29 02:09:21	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	85	69¢	$59	0xcbd307…
09-28 12:38:11	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	3,555	70¢	$2,482	0x56c51c…
09-27 21:09:39	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	1,859	69¢	$1,283	0xd1cd35…
09-27 18:08:59	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	179	69¢	$124	0x5146bd…
09-27 18:08:30	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	227	69¢	$157	0x4da2ab…
09-27 18:08:21	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	282	69¢	$195	0xc17b25…
09-27 18:08:05	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	272	69¢	$187	0xbc462f…
09-27 18:07:45	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	704	68¢	$478	0x3a3198…
09-23 00:55:11	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xe86417…
09-22 23:42:31	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x3d6e09…
09-22 23:32:37	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x9dffd6…
09-21 12:26:32	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	365	74¢	$271	0x97e044…
09-21 12:26:09	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	BUY	6,760	75¢	$5,070	0xd3ac25…
09-20 13:37:52	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	6,307	73¢	$4,604	0x7d37b4…
09-16 11:19:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0xe036ab…
09-15 17:30:39	Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0xdd500d…
09-15 12:19:28	Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xbf5277…
09-15 12:19:00	Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?	No	BUY	174	81¢	$140	0x4ba1bb…
09-12 13:21:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14?	Down	BUY	56	48¢	$27	0xdbc0bf…
09-12 11:35:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14?	Down	BUY	139	49¢	$68	0xce042b…
09-10 19:02:42	Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	162	52¢	$84	0x298a53…
09-08 10:49:36	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	96¢	$175	0xc0f570…
09-07 16:12:57	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	7,358	72¢	$5,298	0x16bdfc…
09-06 15:17:33	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	2,926	76¢	$2,218	0xbee0cb…
09-05 14:12:55	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	88¢	$47	0x9dadca…
09-05 14:11:55	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	No	BUY	190	87¢	$165	0xbb5cdf…
09-05 00:05:45	Will September 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	No	BUY	185	88¢	$162	0xa7eb1e…
09-03 20:41:51	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	No	SELL	500	90¢	$449	0x3d93f7…
09-02 12:56:06	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	1,676	77¢	$1,291	0x812a59…
08-30 12:47:13	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	62¢	$90	0x4f5414…
08-30 12:43:25	Will global temperature increase by between 1.34ºC and 1.37ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x927733…
08-30 12:41:28	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	No	BUY	308	66¢	$203	0x439608…
08-29 18:20:13	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	403	78¢	$314	0x1a37c0…
08-29 18:06:49	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	1,168	77¢	$899	0xf08399…
08-28 17:19:57	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	567	72¢	$409	0x146c5c…
08-27 11:36:16	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	No	BUY	678	79¢	$535	0x77ad2a…
08-26 19:30:19	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	No	BUY	1,669	74¢	$1,234	0x9f0783…
08-26 17:12:33	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x0bd608…
08-25 16:02:43	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	52¢	$92	0xe73c58…
08-25 12:41:06	Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xaa6ffe…
08-25 12:31:33	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x05a0a9…
08-25 12:31:25	Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xeb4f86…