Lost-Fire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$222

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.4%

Resolved

3,580

Trades

6,048

lifetime

Volume

$18.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 10-29 06:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 54% -$206

Politics

1% 80% -$1

Other

1% 56% -$16

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 366 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down on april 17 2026	54	$753	763	739	+24	Up	-$12	04-17 03:33
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	53	$389	450	450	+0	Down	+$4	05-07 07:22
bitcoin up or down on april 15 2026	20	$367	1,167	463	+704	Down	-$19	04-15 15:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 00:55 UTC	11	$292	196	196	+0	Up	+$96	10-17 01:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	16	$207	134	134	+0	Down	$0	10-13 03:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	15	$168	112	110	+2	Down	$0	10-13 03:04
bitcoin up or down on april 14 2026	11	$151	1,441	1,343	+99	Up	+$7	04-14 01:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5PM ET	14	$134	491	153	+338	Down	-$20	05-03 21:43
will bitcoin dip to 74k on april 14	2	$134	75	75	+0	Yes	+$11	04-14 18:47
will bitcoin reach 73k on april 13	6	$130	4,090	0	+4,090	Yes	-$130	04-13 20:04
bitcoin up or down on april 18 2026	18	$110	120	116	+5	Down	-$2	04-18 04:25
will bitcoin reach 75k on april 15	4	$110	100	100	+0	Yes	-$4	04-15 13:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	13	$107	62	62	+0	Down	+$6	10-13 01:49
bitcoin up or down on april 19 2026	21	$98	97	94	+3	Down	-$3	04-18 22:38
bitcoin up or down on april 16 2026	2	$84	100	96	+4	Up	-$2	04-16 13:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	10	$70	45	45	+0	Up	+$19	10-06 04:54
bitcoin up or down on february 28	11	$65	39	33	+6	Down	+$2	02-28 14:52
bitcoin up or down on april 12 2026	28	$63	70	68	+2	Down	+$2	04-12 01:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7PM ET	3	$61	47	30	+17	Down	-$1	05-02 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2PM ET	10	$60	70	60	+10	Up	+$0	05-03 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	12	$59	32	32	+0	Down	+$1	10-13 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	12	$55	34	27	+7	Down	+$2	10-13 04:09
bitcoin up or down march 6 5pm et	17	$55	50	50	+0	Up	-$3	03-06 22:57
bitcoin up or down march 1 1am et	10	$54	40	40	+0	Down	+$3	03-01 06:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	19	$53	80	5	+75	Up	+$32	10-06 05:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	13	$52	31	31	+0	Up	+$2	10-12 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3PM ET	11	$51	57	47	+10	Up	+$0	05-03 19:36
bitcoin up or down february 28 8pm et	10	$46	50	40	+10	Up	+$3	03-01 01:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	16	$45	75	0	+75	Up	+$30	10-06 05:26
bitcoin up or down march 15 2026 3pm et	9	$45	40	40	+0	Up	+$1	03-15 19:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 08:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x1a7c93…
10-29 08:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x16d16b…
10-29 08:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xa6b8a6…
10-29 06:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x48833b…
10-29 06:34:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x65de95…
10-29 06:14:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x607848…
10-29 05:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xa7e458…
10-29 05:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x35fc2e…
10-29 04:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x5221b8…
10-29 04:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x56dd88…
10-29 04:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xc55241…
10-29 03:42:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x45a6f0…
10-29 03:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x4f1d37…
10-29 02:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xbeb377…
10-29 01:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x151e65…
10-29 01:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa65037…
10-29 01:07:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd5fbc9…
10-28 22:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xf7ca81…
10-28 22:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x3dd87b…
10-28 22:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x2b399a…
10-28 21:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa49c68…
10-28 21:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xc253ab…
10-28 21:35:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xef3f2a…
10-28 21:26:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x4a3277…
10-28 21:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x690afb…
10-28 21:12:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x2bfc91…
10-28 21:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2888af…
10-28 20:40:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xccf4e7…
10-28 20:20:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x29516d…
10-28 19:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x9638e6…
10-28 19:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x47a93b…
10-28 19:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xef3cf9…
10-28 18:39:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5b5306…
10-28 18:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xd7fe94…
10-28 18:32:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xea3f41…
10-28 18:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa08034…
10-28 18:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0bb01b…
10-28 18:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x81e6b7…
10-28 17:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x1fe253…
10-28 17:39:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x464e0b…
10-28 17:27:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x948a98…
10-28 17:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa830a5…
10-28 16:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xe3edf4…
10-28 16:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd5e79d…
10-28 16:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x219cd9…
10-28 16:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd36007…
10-28 16:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xea5ea4…
10-28 15:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf2396f…
10-28 15:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe3823e…
10-28 15:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x9cf107…
10-28 15:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xfa2fee…
10-28 14:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x003ac3…
10-28 14:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x9e2fc4…
10-28 14:07:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x489e9a…
10-28 14:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa5cff4…
10-28 13:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa50710…
10-28 13:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xe27cd0…
10-28 12:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x3d4086…
10-28 12:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x485d7f…
10-28 12:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x35bf13…
10-28 12:06:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdb24bf…
10-28 11:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x42a4fb…
10-28 11:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x4f552d…
10-28 11:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x4a811b…
10-28 10:38:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x5c4250…
10-28 09:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xdc094b…
10-28 09:29:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x881e52…
10-28 08:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xea9c7c…
10-28 08:13:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9e3d5d…
10-28 08:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x9f8324…
10-28 07:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x339056…
10-28 07:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x0d5971…
10-28 07:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x669c05…
10-28 07:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xa07b2a…
10-28 06:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x7b1e9e…
10-28 06:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x7551d5…
10-28 06:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x27648c…
10-28 05:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x2c844e…
10-28 05:31:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xdcbfde…
10-28 05:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x370a05…
10-28 05:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x7bdc50…
10-28 05:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x05c4e9…
10-28 05:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x44f829…
10-28 04:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3b442f…
10-28 04:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x6d3602…
10-28 04:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x6bfef9…
10-28 03:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x5f76a9…
10-28 02:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x5ddcf5…
10-28 02:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x114400…
10-28 02:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x909532…
10-28 01:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x348d86…
10-28 01:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xaea81a…
10-28 01:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x3724ba…
10-28 01:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x23fabe…
10-28 00:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x378afa…
10-28 00:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3dbd98…
10-27 23:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xc57a58…
10-27 23:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x8ad13b…
10-27 22:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x7f1e88…
10-27 22:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb30e5f…