Fatal-Chainstay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

39.8%

Resolved

Trades

612

lifetime

Volume

$559

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-11

last 07-04 16:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 39% $-17

Politics

2% — —

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 194 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	07-03 04:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	8	$9	8	5	+2	Up	$-3	05-11 18:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	6	$7	8	0	+8	Down	$-7	05-11 18:34
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	7	$6	6	4	+2	open	—	07-01 19:38
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	16	$5	5	1	+3	open	—	06-22 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 23:22
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 16:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-14 14:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-14 14:44
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Down	$-0	05-11 12:55
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 06:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-14 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-14 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Down	$-0	05-11 23:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-11 16:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	3	$3	5	2	+3	Down	$-2	05-12 03:10
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	3	$3	5	2	+3	Up	+$1	05-11 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	4	$3	4	4	+0	Up	$-1	05-11 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-11 15:55
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-11 17:05
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 15:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	3	$3	9	1	+7	Up	+$5	05-11 18:27
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	3	$3	2	1	+1	open	—	05-15 06:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-12 06:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-11 23:57
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-11 22:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 01:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Down	+$1	05-11 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 22:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 22:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 16:08:02	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x48cac8…
07-03 04:56:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x501dd9…
07-01 19:38:41	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xfa95c2…
07-01 19:37:22	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x6d0fc1…
07-01 19:32:29	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x929eeb…
07-01 07:37:14	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x421844…
07-01 07:33:56	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x94c3b4…
07-01 07:33:52	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0x57471b…
07-01 07:29:58	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xa579df…
06-22 22:01:23	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x41e925…
06-22 17:31:38	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0xb9d4e7…
06-22 15:36:29	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xc4b406…
06-22 15:29:04	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xe8e0a0…
06-22 15:07:20	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x4565f9…
06-22 13:14:08	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x5a68c5…
06-22 12:48:34	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xe07df9…
06-22 11:40:17	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x282c51…
06-22 11:33:43	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xa49b60…
06-22 11:33:28	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x02df8c…
06-20 11:36:55	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xbc36a5…
06-20 10:14:16	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xb23207…
06-20 09:14:31	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x81bda1…
06-20 07:08:44	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xb0fe27…
06-19 12:33:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x55d1cc…
06-19 12:32:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x11525f…
06-19 12:29:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x8e04ca…
06-19 11:43:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0x905e9e…
06-19 11:41:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xb2f537…
06-19 11:36:59	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0x7f12df…
06-19 11:31:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xe9e97e…
06-19 11:23:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xf32128…
06-19 11:23:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xa66bd0…
06-02 21:21:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2e760e…
06-01 19:16:44	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x532ceb…
06-01 19:09:37	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9f5448…
06-01 08:29:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0b6e3b…
05-16 01:04:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0xaaffc3…
05-16 01:04:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x49cd30…
05-16 00:59:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x87a9a4…
05-16 00:49:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x204ca4…
05-16 00:49:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe51ca0…
05-16 00:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x360ca8…
05-15 23:57:31	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa2a1f4…
05-15 23:54:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x2c0d40…
05-15 23:54:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc119d9…
05-15 23:14:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x1b7a0f…
05-15 23:14:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8426a4…
05-15 23:00:02	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x80b54b…
05-15 22:59:58	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xae2927…
05-15 22:54:59	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x34175d…
05-15 22:54:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x031019…
05-15 22:44:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x4fd067…
05-15 22:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x6cf55f…
05-15 22:35:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd69ee5…
05-15 22:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0xd35f9a…
05-15 22:24:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xdf131b…
05-15 22:19:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xac429a…
05-15 22:19:59	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x043802…
05-15 22:19:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xa4642e…
05-15 22:19:57	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x963f51…
05-15 22:19:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x663d9a…
05-15 22:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1bbb89…
05-15 22:15:00	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7910ad…
05-15 21:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x82b456…
05-15 21:54:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4ed01b…
05-15 21:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9f992f…
05-15 21:29:52	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5a47ed…
05-15 21:29:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa0628a…
05-15 20:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xd943e6…
05-15 20:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe97a9e…
05-15 20:24:53	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6aa11b…
05-15 20:19:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x51b0ab…
05-15 20:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb61d2c…
05-15 20:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x06ce35…
05-15 19:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xef00ca…
05-15 19:39:58	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xa48c2d…
05-15 19:39:55	Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x8f659b…
05-15 19:29:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa69099…
05-15 19:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3a4cee…
05-15 18:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xec37eb…
05-15 18:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x30ee9b…
05-15 18:55:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x13f614…
05-15 18:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x3ba7c1…
05-15 18:44:56	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x2cb54a…
05-15 17:59:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb664f9…
05-15 17:54:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa9c513…
05-15 17:49:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9c50ae…
05-15 17:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x42fbe4…
05-15 17:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xadacc9…
05-15 16:29:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x97a1e2…
05-15 16:19:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1cc402…
05-15 16:14:51	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x92c4b6…
05-15 16:14:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x30ec6a…
05-15 16:09:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xb43363…
05-15 16:05:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xb3dbae…
05-15 15:59:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x5ac5a3…
05-15 15:59:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xb8c66b…
05-15 15:49:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xa6f847…
05-15 15:49:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x2a3a33…
05-15 15:44:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb84f7a…