Puzzling-Pickaxe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.76K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.25K

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$19.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$335

Open exposure

$2.30K

10 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-13 00:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

64% 36% -$2,480

Other

36% 57% +$777

Sports

0% 0% -$60

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-13).

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+1,994	$550	88¢	$1.8K	+$1,215	06-10 23:28
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+312	$100	97¢	$303	+$203	05-14 18:56
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+5,556	$50	2¢	$139	+$89	05-20 01:48
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+12,500	$100	0¢	$19	-$81	05-20 01:46
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+273	$30	6¢	$18	-$12	06-10 02:04
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+5,000	$50	0¢	$18	-$32	05-20 01:47
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+2,273	$50	1¢	$17	-$33	06-11 00:41
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+5,556	$50	0¢	$8	-$42	05-20 01:47
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+3,125	$50	0¢	$8	-$42	06-11 00:40
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+1,145	$13	0¢	$2	-$11	05-20 02:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$3.2K	1,758	1,758	+0	No	+$198	06-09 00:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.2K	1,163	1,163	+0	No	+$160	06-01 21:25
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$1.8K	2,510	0	+2,510	Yes	-$1,800	06-12 16:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$1.4K	1,661	0	+1,661	No	+$261	06-12 16:44
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	4	$1.4K	1,376	1,376	+0	open	—	06-01 21:27
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$1.3K	1,829	1,829	+0	open	—	06-01 21:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$1.2K	2,009	0	+2,009	No	+$759	06-10 23:28
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$723	825	0	+825	No	+$102	05-19 12:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$550	1,994	0	+1,994	open	—	06-10 23:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$500	569	0	+569	No	+$69	05-14 00:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$500	847	0	+847	No	+$347	05-11 06:48
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	1	$500	1,255	0	+1,255	Yes	-$500	05-11 06:46
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	1	$500	599	0	+599	Yes	-$500	06-10 15:05
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	1	$500	708	0	+708	Yes	-$500	06-10 15:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$403	227	227	+0	No	+$3	05-19 12:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$383	323	323	+0	No	-$17	05-19 12:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$380	253	253	+0	No	-$20	05-19 12:29
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$369	406	406	+0	Yes	-$61	05-19 12:29
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$334	230	230	+0	No	-$66	05-15 04:28
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$200	579	0	+579	No	-$200	06-01 21:36
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1	$100	312	0	+312	open	—	05-14 18:56
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$100	12,500	0	+12,500	open	—	05-20 01:46
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$97	163	163	+0	No	-$3	05-13 15:46
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$50	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	05-20 01:47
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$50	3,125	0	+3,125	open	—	06-11 00:40
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$50	5,556	0	+5,556	open	—	05-20 01:48
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$50	2,273	0	+2,273	open	—	06-11 00:41
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$50	5,556	0	+5,556	open	—	05-20 01:47
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$30	1,200	0	+1,200	No	-$30	06-10 15:25
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$30	1,667	0	+1,667	No	-$30	06-10 15:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 00:26:16	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	BUY	54	24¢	$13	0xdcb685…
06-12 16:44:07	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	525	76¢	$400	0x10fd58…
06-12 16:43:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	600	50¢	$300	0xe4d859…
06-11 00:41:45	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2,273	2¢	$50	0xb74f76…
06-11 00:40:54	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	3,125	2¢	$50	0xb7ceba…
06-10 23:28:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,786	28¢	$500	0x5d2f46…
06-10 23:28:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	645	78¢	$500	0xc6e1ca…
06-10 15:25:33	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,667	2¢	$30	0xcd21ff…
06-10 15:25:19	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,200	2¢	$30	0x54b90f…
06-10 15:05:54	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	599	83¢	$500	0x53e1b5…
06-10 15:04:36	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	No	BUY	708	71¢	$500	0x6bd034…
06-10 15:04:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x58e816…
06-10 15:03:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0x86c83d…
06-10 02:04:03	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0x5172d8…
06-09 00:56:31	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,758	97¢	$1,698	0x759799…
06-01 21:36:54	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x6224c1…
06-01 21:28:20	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	364	2¢	$7	0xbf0914…
06-01 21:27:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,829	32¢	$585	0x9df345…
06-01 21:27:38	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	969	52¢	$503	0xd8e488…
06-01 21:27:15	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	407	44¢	$179	0xe01552…
06-01 21:25:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1,163	100¢	$1,160	0x36e0d8…
05-20 02:24:37	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	1,145	1¢	$13	0x5978fd…
05-20 01:48:07	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5,556	1¢	$50	0x33046a…
05-20 01:47:55	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5,556	1¢	$50	0xfc6552…
05-20 01:47:41	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$50	0xeffe01…
05-20 01:46:21	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	12,500	1¢	$100	0x8e295e…
05-20 01:10:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	246	61¢	$150	0xd532e5…
05-19 23:37:40	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x8ab4e6…
05-19 12:32:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	795	88¢	$700	0x646410…
05-19 12:29:53	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	406	38¢	$154	0x424f88…
05-19 12:29:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	253	71¢	$180	0x02bef7…
05-19 12:29:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	323	57¢	$183	0xb20d93…
05-19 12:29:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	SELL	227	89¢	$203	0x3c6f10…
05-15 04:28:41	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	230	58¢	$134	0xef2f37…
05-15 03:48:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	406	53¢	$215	0xca7147…
05-14 18:56:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0xd37356…
05-14 00:38:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	569	88¢	$500	0xfbcaf7…
05-13 16:05:44	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	364	5¢	$20	0xd1c9dc…
05-13 16:00:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	323	62¢	$200	0xcb6580…
05-13 15:59:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x22150b…
05-13 15:59:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0xe21a96…
05-13 15:46:47	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	163	29¢	$47	0xce124d…
05-13 04:26:04	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	969	52¢	$500	0x981c55…
05-13 04:25:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,220	41¢	$500	0x2cd839…
05-13 01:22:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x4f1f8f…
05-13 00:39:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,364	55¢	$750	0xc745dd…
05-11 15:48:44	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	407	49¢	$200	0x46189a…
05-11 07:12:25	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	163	31¢	$50	0xe26c58…
05-11 07:11:14	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xa7d436…
05-11 07:05:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	610	41¢	$250	0xc9d985…
05-11 06:57:54	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x490be8…
05-11 06:56:07	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	595	84¢	$500	0x5b28ee…
05-11 06:48:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x3c7fb3…
05-11 06:48:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	847	59¢	$500	0x516790…
05-11 06:46:37	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	1,255	40¢	$500	0x0b6002…
05-11 06:45:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	691	72¢	$500	0xfe1f55…
05-06 20:40:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0x7589c2…