Alarmed-Segment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$44

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

159

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$4.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$103

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-28 03:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Politics

33% 100% +$9

Other

33% 99% +$21

Crypto

23% 100% +$8

Tech

8% 100% +$1

Sports

4% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+170	$119	60¢	$103	-$16	10-20 10:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$458	319	160	+160	Yes	+$2	09-10 14:09
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$313	157	157	+0	Yes	+$0	10-05 06:05
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$246	125	125	+0	No	+$3	09-01 06:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$159	160	0	+160	No	+$1	09-06 11:04
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$159	79	79	+0	No	+$0	09-30 12:58
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$158	158	0	+158	No	+$0	09-15 22:37
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	2	$155	156	0	+156	No	+$2	09-14 13:58
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$144	145	0	+145	Yes	+$1	09-18 07:22
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	1	$136	136	0	+136	Yes	+$0	06-08 20:23
squid fdv above 75m one day after launch 994	1	$133	134	0	+134	Yes	+$0	08-05 17:55
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$132	133	0	+133	No	+$1	08-17 05:01
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$132	134	0	+134	Yes	+$2	08-05 01:39
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$128	129	0	+129	No	+$0	08-06 16:26
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$127	128	0	+128	No	+$1	08-10 23:46
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$127	132	0	+132	No	+$5	08-13 09:00
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$124	127	0	+127	Yes	+$2	08-20 16:06
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$119	170	0	+170	open	—	10-20 10:37
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	1	$106	106	0	+106	No	+$0	06-26 07:01
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	1	$105	110	0	+110	Yes	+$5	06-27 21:01
will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	3	$96	57	57	+0	open	—	10-04 11:32
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$89	91	0	+91	No	+$2	07-30 15:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$81	42	42	+0	No	+$0	08-25 11:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$79	79	0	+79	No	+$1	09-30 18:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	1	$78	88	0	+88	No	+$11	05-19 23:37
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	2	$72	38	38	+0	Yes	+$1	10-12 22:25
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$63	34	34	+0	open	—	10-28 03:01
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	1	$46	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	04-01 12:37
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$43	43	0	+43	Yes	+$0	05-05 05:06
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	4	$38	19	19	+0	No	+$0	09-29 13:23
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	09-30 09:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 03:01:41	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x7d2924…
10-28 02:50:32	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xa1a7a7…
10-27 16:51:30	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6f567f…
10-25 23:59:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x42ffa8…
10-24 18:06:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x439adf…
10-20 10:37:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	170	70¢	$119	0xe108f4…
10-17 23:22:48	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe40a9e…
10-13 21:49:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	14¢	$2	0xaffc98…
10-13 12:28:10	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	23	29¢	$7	0x85f0f5…
10-12 22:25:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	96¢	$36	0xf8f5a4…
10-12 16:17:44	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xa52ae3…
10-12 14:11:41	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xe03eff…
10-12 13:54:23	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0xc92e47…
10-12 13:14:59	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x97703a…
10-12 13:07:41	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x138b69…
10-12 13:00:12	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	12	29¢	$3	0x8b05ac…
10-08 17:39:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0xf5937a…
10-08 17:14:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0xbe9633…
10-08 06:02:38	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x476ef7…
10-05 06:05:55	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	157	100¢	$157	0xc53637…
10-04 23:58:02	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	157	100¢	$156	0x52d97c…
10-04 11:32:58	will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	55	85¢	$46	0x0275a3…
10-03 12:26:17	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa8ad12…
09-30 20:30:14	will jumper launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xaf460f…
09-30 18:56:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	99¢	$79	0xe067b3…
09-30 12:58:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0x9dd08e…
09-30 09:51:53	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x2f252a…
09-29 13:24:12	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xec4724…
09-29 13:23:05	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x62ab9d…
09-29 13:21:53	will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xedffec…
09-28 11:32:11	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x67d1bc…
09-24 09:12:29	will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6e8dbf…
09-22 20:20:45	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	85¢	$48	0xc02f65…
09-22 12:28:37	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb6977c…
09-18 21:18:51	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xd2a157…
09-18 07:22:58	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	145	100¢	$144	0xaa51f9…
09-17 15:34:42	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0c13da…
09-15 22:37:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	158	100¢	$158	0x898da5…
09-14 13:58:18	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	154	99¢	$152	0x4d0c5d…
09-14 13:52:01	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6fd99c…
09-11 10:39:03	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9bfab0…
09-10 14:09:33	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0xf7bc61…
09-10 14:08:57	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0xe9140b…
09-10 01:13:25	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	160	94¢	$150	0xdbab48…
09-09 17:13:52	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	160	94¢	$150	0xdec61d…
09-06 11:04:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$159	0x535d5e…
09-01 06:51:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0xee0a2b…
08-29 17:39:43	will ethereum dip to 1900 in august 2026 from august 18	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd2ad3b…
08-27 19:04:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	125	97¢	$121	0xbf55c3…
08-27 01:24:48	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0xb1227d…
08-25 21:46:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf9275b…
08-25 16:51:36	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x220012…
08-25 15:54:06	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xcceac5…
08-25 11:59:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0xc2107f…
08-24 13:33:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x0cf364…
08-23 22:56:25	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe7916e…
08-21 20:00:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x657f7e…
08-20 16:06:33	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	127	98¢	$124	0xc388c7…
08-20 15:53:01	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x744c00…
08-18 14:59:45	will wti reach 120 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2ffb29…
08-17 05:01:48	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	133	99¢	$132	0xb3119d…
08-13 09:00:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	132	96¢	$127	0xb5a4d1…
08-12 05:19:36	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2d2c6c…
08-10 23:46:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	128	99¢	$127	0x4a0203…
08-07 02:12:33	will ethereum dip to 1200 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x00e7aa…
08-06 16:26:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	129	100¢	$128	0xa27c4f…
08-06 10:23:53	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcd8e74…
08-05 17:55:29	squid fdv above 75m one day after launch 994	Yes	BUY	134	100¢	$133	0x5822f5…
08-05 10:57:20	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8f6ef1…
08-05 01:39:44	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	134	99¢	$132	0xc86dfa…
08-04 17:38:44	will wti dip to 50 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x42bc19…
08-04 15:07:20	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8e4e7e…
08-04 10:25:17	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0024df…
07-30 15:21:26	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0x81ac26…
07-27 11:37:06	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9ca92b…
07-25 21:41:04	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x36f359…
07-25 17:00:04	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6e2380…
07-25 09:08:01	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2b1ff2…
07-24 20:49:51	will bitcoin reach 80k in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x491565…
07-24 18:55:27	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x881d5b…
07-21 06:02:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x90e0ca…
07-20 13:49:22	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xba5d77…
07-16 22:43:07	will ethereum dip to 1000 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x54e75e…
07-16 21:12:59	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x32e037…
07-13 23:34:01	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x5d3cf7…
07-10 03:26:40	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x33efa1…
07-06 10:58:28	will ethereum dip to 700 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4e7a25…
07-02 17:48:37	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe0095e…
06-29 23:22:53	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xb2623d…
06-29 11:46:02	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc9b3b2…
06-29 10:33:01	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xac3158…
06-29 06:28:16	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xb65f8e…
06-29 05:41:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x0f5d2f…
06-29 03:27:53	will openais valuation hit low 700b by june 30	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x370b8a…
06-29 00:11:08	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7f537f…
06-28 22:21:25	Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x00dcbd…
06-28 21:35:08	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5fbf02…
06-27 21:01:34	Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0xdd8ad8…
06-27 04:25:25	will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0x71994a…
06-26 11:54:26	Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x3fa1fc…