Grateful-Charlatan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

11.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,030

lifetime

Volume

$19.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 08-12 11:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

67% — —

Crypto

15% 8% $-19

Tech

10% — —

Politics

6% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	11	$931	1,019	1,019	+0	open	—	07-10 09:56
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	4	$776	1,202	1,202	+0	open	—	08-05 22:56
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	6	$769	511	511	+0	open	—	08-07 21:04
Fed rate hike in 2026?	8	$668	871	871	+0	open	—	08-07 12:34
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	2	$616	870	870	+0	open	—	08-01 03:59
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	5	$575	611	611	+0	open	—	08-08 21:23
will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	2	$570	803	803	+0	open	—	08-01 08:03
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 first half total 1pt5	4	$560	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-09 12:01
situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	8	$546	677	677	+0	open	—	08-07 04:21
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	5	$532	461	461	+0	open	—	08-09 00:20
will marcelo attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630259	3	$532	412	412	+0	open	—	08-07 03:18
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 first half total 0pt5	6	$411	683	683	+0	open	—	07-07 04:20
Iran leadership change by December 31?	4	$410	400	400	+0	open	—	08-07 12:48
foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	2	$390	541	541	+0	open	—	08-02 11:57
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	2	$389	1,538	1,538	+0	open	—	07-30 14:21
grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	5	$358	1,119	1,119	+0	open	—	08-07 14:45
tsn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 03 2026 1	8	$325	331	331	+0	open	—	07-24 14:02
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 first half total 1pt5	2	$320	500	500	+0	open	—	07-10 02:30
will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	2	$294	506	506	+0	open	—	07-24 23:37
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	5	$282	657	657	+0	open	—	07-31 06:53
us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	5	$276	1,329	1,329	-0	open	—	07-14 16:06
will the next claude opus model be released by july 29 2026	3	$276	499	499	+0	open	—	07-24 06:11
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team total home 2pt5	2	$265	500	500	+0	open	—	07-09 11:16
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	6	$258	187	187	+0	open	—	08-08 13:48
ebay quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 1pt51	2	$252	1,543	1,543	+0	open	—	07-24 10:31
will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	8	$247	242	242	+0	open	—	08-08 01:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$232	200	200	+0	open	—	08-08 16:31
will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	4	$223	610	610	+0	open	—	08-01 19:34
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	6	$219	460	460	+0	open	—	08-08 14:06
grok 4pt6 released by august 7 2026 20260804192931962	3	$210	410	2	+408	open	—	08-06 02:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 16:20:19	sweden parliamentary election more votes to v or c 20260812170140802	V	SELL	19	60¢	$11	0x4ce989…
08-13 16:20:01	sweden parliamentary election more votes to v or c 20260812170140802	V	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0xc0d178…
08-13 14:50:04	critical discord incident by august 31 20260811190800465	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xe2dc22…
08-13 14:49:45	critical discord incident by august 31 20260811190800465	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xc0b6ed…
08-12 11:43:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xe0fe55…
08-12 11:40:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xfccc5d…
08-09 01:05:00	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x73413c…
08-09 01:04:57	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x1d3220…
08-09 00:20:43	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x4e6428…
08-09 00:17:40	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x178db3…
08-08 21:23:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	SELL	411	55¢	$226	0xcf249b…
08-08 21:20:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	Yes	BUY	211	56¢	$118	0x279ed6…
08-08 16:31:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	58¢	$116	0xbd3e05…
08-08 16:28:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x6c0ff4…
08-08 14:23:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	200	25¢	$50	0x1e041d…
08-08 14:19:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x70845c…
08-08 14:06:55	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	221	18¢	$40	0x273e7d…
08-08 14:06:52	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	199	19¢	$38	0x39c024…
08-08 14:06:46	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	320	20¢	$64	0x8d4962…
08-08 13:48:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x976440…
08-08 12:05:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x8b548e…
08-08 12:05:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$22	0xd6cc13…
08-08 11:48:45	iran leadership change by october 31	Yes	SELL	411	12¢	$49	0x9241b1…
08-08 11:48:43	iran leadership change by october 31	Yes	BUY	211	12¢	$25	0x0dc93b…
08-08 10:24:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x3219ec…
08-08 07:19:30	will haley thogmartin be evicted in big brother season 28 week 5 20260806195432952	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xcc047c…
08-08 07:19:12	will haley thogmartin be evicted in big brother season 28 week 5 20260806195432952	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x853bf3…
08-08 05:13:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x544565…
08-08 05:08:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x2e3643…
08-08 03:43:40	fcc revokes a major network broadcast license by december 31 2026 20260717235625543	No	SELL	28	87¢	$25	0xb3e79a…
08-08 03:43:39	fcc revokes a major network broadcast license by december 31 2026 20260717235625543	No	BUY	28	87¢	$25	0x1d66d6…
08-08 03:28:30	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x0b82a9…
08-08 03:25:18	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x3af48c…
08-08 02:57:39	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	200	9¢	$18	0xaef6b0…
08-08 02:54:31	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xf151ea…
08-08 01:09:28	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x13c414…
08-08 00:31:33	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	207	53¢	$110	0x1285b8…
08-08 00:31:28	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x7e3e64…
08-08 00:31:27	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	92	51¢	$47	0x7d59b0…
08-08 00:31:27	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x2eeda7…
08-07 21:04:48	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	411	85¢	$349	0x58ef15…
08-07 21:01:45	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	211	85¢	$180	0x9b11fe…
08-07 19:40:09	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0xebcd78…
08-07 19:37:06	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x9642a4…
08-07 19:04:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	200	33¢	$66	0xe26d09…
08-07 19:01:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	200	48¢	$96	0x380c62…
08-07 18:45:52	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0xedf91e…
08-07 18:42:49	todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x9e440f…
08-07 15:18:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	180	70¢	$126	0x1b0ce7…
08-07 15:15:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	180	71¢	$128	0x31f66a…
08-07 15:15:18	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	411	58¢	$239	0x696dad…
08-07 15:12:13	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	361	59¢	$213	0x7aa85a…
08-07 14:50:09	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xd52519…
08-07 14:49:37	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x02c659…
08-07 14:45:10	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	No	SELL	206	11¢	$23	0xffc82e…
08-07 14:43:10	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964	No	BUY	156	12¢	$19	0x70e57e…
08-07 13:49:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x36a1f5…
08-07 13:48:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xfd9626…
08-07 12:48:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	21¢	$42	0xbf5d67…
08-07 12:48:19	will tony score at least 93 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107430	No	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0x4cec49…
08-07 12:47:12	will tony score at least 93 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107430	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x17d9d8…
08-07 12:45:49	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0xe2a428…
08-07 12:34:07	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x540613…
08-07 12:31:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x5dabeb…
08-07 12:28:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	27	51¢	$14	0x3990d1…
08-07 12:28:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x36298f…
08-07 11:17:28	will super troopers 3 score at least 35 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260805173713611	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x5109c0…
08-07 11:14:25	will super troopers 3 score at least 35 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260805173713611	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xc240a8…
08-07 11:01:01	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	27	9¢	$2	0x5271d2…
08-07 10:57:31	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0x808adb…
08-07 09:54:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xe5eab6…
08-07 09:51:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xfa657e…
08-07 09:00:52	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x3daac4…
08-07 08:57:48	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0156ae…
08-07 08:45:16	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	No	SELL	80	19¢	$15	0x75a057…
08-07 08:42:12	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	No	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xea196e…
08-07 06:56:55	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	SELL	36	14¢	$5	0xf4078c…
08-07 06:55:54	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x6c64ad…
08-07 06:55:54	will openais astra model be released by september 30 2026 20260801214557732	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x134051…
08-07 06:52:12	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0xcb7728…
08-07 06:49:09	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x2737c2…
08-07 04:21:42	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	No	SELL	24	11¢	$3	0xfe7bf4…
08-07 04:21:42	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xe3a563…
08-07 04:21:42	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x5f72bb…
08-07 04:21:42	will the 1996 mclaren f1 gtr sell for at least 35m at auction 20260804173205865	Yes	SELL	89	70¢	$62	0x515289…
08-07 04:21:42	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	SELL	5	69¢	$4	0x0d2aa8…
08-07 04:21:40	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x83a7a9…
08-07 04:10:34	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc21f76…
08-07 03:50:49	will the 1996 mclaren f1 gtr sell for at least 35m at auction 20260804173205865	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x880e14…
08-07 03:18:49	will marcelo attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630259	Yes	SELL	412	65¢	$268	0xe56a2e…
08-07 02:25:37	will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xb8a933…
08-07 01:23:12	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x83787a…
08-06 23:30:18	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 9 20260728155313321	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xeb9e11…
08-06 21:06:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	85	82¢	$69	0xdf3a45…
08-06 21:05:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xa7e479…
08-06 21:05:53	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	91	82¢	$74	0x8e1118…
08-06 19:53:23	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xc703a3…
08-06 19:53:18	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x8d9654…
08-06 19:52:29	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0xd8c37d…
08-06 19:52:29	situational awareness raises new capital by august 31 20260730182353379	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x5b1856…