Hoarse-Fixture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.30K

Unrealized P&L

+$32

Hit rate

78.8%

Resolved

1,361

Trades

2,339

lifetime

Volume

$190.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

$367

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 10-29 07:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 220 days

Categories

Other

52% 37% -$230

Crypto

47% 62% -$926

Politics

0% 29% -$134

Sports

0% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	+400	$120	42¢	$166	+$46	10-28 12:42
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	+402	$110	29¢	$118	+$8	10-28 12:42
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	+400	$80	18¢	$70	-$10	10-28 12:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+114	$25	12¢	$13	-$12	09-26 10:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 40 64	6	$3.7K	3,459	3,459	+0	Yes	+$230	03-16 06:41
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	17	$2.6K	1,535	1,535	+0	No	+$196	09-27 10:43
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	3	$2.3K	1,372	1,372	+0	No	+$470	10-05 10:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 16:05 UTC	2	$2.2K	1,130	1,130	+0	Down	+$10	03-12 16:10
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	8	$2.2K	1,987	1,987	+0	Yes	-$420	09-28 16:07
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 65 89	4	$2.1K	1,766	1,766	+0	No	+$26	03-23 11:40
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 40 64	2	$2.0K	1,110	1,110	+0	No	+$209	03-28 12:16
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 07:15 UTC	2	$2.0K	1,035	1,035	+1	Down	+$51	03-19 07:29
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,036	1,036	+0	No	+$135	09-25 16:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,088	1,088	+0	No	+$287	09-22 23:46
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	2	$1.8K	1,349	1,349	+0	Yes	-$814	10-06 06:02
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 90 114	5	$1.8K	2,182	1,767	+414	No	-$243	03-11 13:03
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	6	$1.7K	2,216	2,216	+0	Yes	+$411	03-17 16:02
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 65 89	6	$1.7K	3,638	3,638	+0	No	-$195	03-16 12:45
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	2	$1.7K	888	888	+0	No	+$87	09-18 05:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 14:50 UTC	3	$1.7K	900	844	+55	Up	+$16	03-27 14:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 14:35 UTC	1	$1.7K	1,727	0	+1,727	Down	+$73	03-28 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 14:35 UTC	2	$1.6K	828	828	+0	Down	+$16	03-27 14:40
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 300 319	4	$1.6K	1,694	1,694	+0	No	-$188	03-20 11:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 14:25 UTC	1	$1.6K	1,653	0	+1,653	Down	+$22	03-28 14:29
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	2	$1.6K	804	804	+0	No	+$23	10-14 06:49
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	2	$1.6K	920	920	+0	No	+$257	10-03 08:30
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	6	$1.6K	1,087	1,087	+0	No	+$50	09-22 02:59
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 280 299	4	$1.5K	1,661	1,661	+0	No	+$8	03-20 05:13
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	6	$1.5K	1,824	1,824	+0	Yes	+$738	03-20 16:40
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	5	$1.5K	1,040	1,040	+0	Yes	-$59	10-19 14:14
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 90 114	5	$1.5K	2,445	1,445	+1,000	No	-$550	03-21 12:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 06:15 UTC	2	$1.5K	753	753	+0	Up	+$14	03-25 06:21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	6	$1.5K	803	803	+0	No	+$87	10-11 18:24
elon musk of tweets march 16 march 18 40 64	4	$1.5K	834	834	+0	No	+$121	03-18 08:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 07:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	704	99¢	$697	0x87360e…
10-29 07:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	704	71¢	$500	0x44a2bc…
10-29 03:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	533	99¢	$528	0x9d0af3…
10-29 03:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	533	94¢	$500	0x79f676…
10-29 03:43:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	130	94¢	$122	0x128fd7…
10-29 03:42:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x237758…
10-28 16:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	505	100¢	$505	0xe13119…
10-28 16:49:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x092a1f…
10-28 15:10:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	693	99¢	$686	0x9d7511…
10-28 15:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	693	72¢	$500	0x1527e4…
10-28 12:42:46	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	402	27¢	$110	0x4b969d…
10-28 12:42:28	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	30¢	$120	0x281c6b…
10-28 12:41:58	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	20¢	$80	0xa2bda4…
10-28 11:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xdadb9b…
10-28 10:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	538	99¢	$532	0x4ebbbf…
10-28 10:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0xa1bec4…
10-28 10:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	518	99¢	$513	0xf53751…
10-28 10:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	518	97¢	$500	0x7c5dd0…
10-28 07:58:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	185	94¢	$174	0xc50123…
10-28 07:57:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xc3cf33…
10-28 07:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	112	96¢	$108	0x852b7a…
10-28 07:28:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x7c73b7…
10-28 07:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xfb7802…
10-27 09:03:53	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	New Zealand	SELL	54	18¢	$10	0x19d8ef…
10-27 08:56:20	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	New Zealand	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x87a6fa…
10-27 04:08:50	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	281	57¢	$160	0x938343…
10-27 04:08:30	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	316	32¢	$101	0x88c40c…
10-26 12:03:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0xd39175…
10-26 11:20:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	38¢	$40	0xf2cc60…
10-26 01:37:03	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0x104921…
10-26 01:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	316	25¢	$80	0xa4af3f…
10-26 01:31:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	281	36¢	$101	0x41f502…
10-25 15:26:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	249	100¢	$248	0xf57214…
10-25 04:08:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	249	80¢	$200	0xfad25e…
10-24 16:48:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	5¢	$10	0xbac2a0…
10-24 08:03:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	250	22¢	$54	0x7522e6…
10-24 08:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xee28d1…
10-24 05:19:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	700	100¢	$699	0x6689d7…
10-23 21:19:00	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	700	97¢	$680	0x32c862…
10-23 16:41:36	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	383	100¢	$382	0xf38443…
10-23 16:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	94	96¢	$91	0x67bda2…
10-23 16:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xc4b9b2…
10-22 09:48:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	332	12¢	$40	0xd0c77e…
10-22 09:47:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	305	10¢	$30	0xc0860f…
10-22 04:21:50	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0xc4a849…
10-22 04:20:32	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	383	34¢	$130	0xb7cef2…
10-22 04:19:21	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	305	23¢	$70	0xc20786…
10-21 07:42:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x15c87f…
10-21 07:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x90e3a6…
10-21 07:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xaa5337…
10-20 15:17:56	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England	Pakistan	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x3720fd…
10-20 13:52:50	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England	Pakistan	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x171fb7…
10-20 09:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xc06ef1…
10-19 23:03:59	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	837	62¢	$517	0x2f7a9f…
10-19 16:07:57	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	837	88¢	$740	0x88f3a7…
10-19 14:14:51	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	390	51¢	$198	0x50ec2d…
10-19 11:24:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	71	63¢	$45	0x9378a8…
10-19 08:56:23	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	318	79¢	$250	0x8e6c7f…
10-18 22:47:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	11¢	$16	0x4e8bb6…
10-18 22:47:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	650	83¢	$539	0x17e7ee…
10-18 14:02:44	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	13¢	$20	0x20c6dd…
10-18 06:58:15	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	650	77¢	$500	0x4e02f2…
10-17 15:00:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	267	28¢	$74	0xf178e0…
10-17 12:14:17	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0x7cc829…
10-17 02:19:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	546	100¢	$545	0x6261f3…
10-16 16:08:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	546	92¢	$500	0x52ee2c…
10-16 03:54:45	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	505	100¢	$504	0x231502…
10-15 16:20:34	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	505	79¢	$400	0x59f261…
10-14 06:49:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	SELL	804	100¢	$803	0xee2f12…
10-14 06:00:35	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	804	97¢	$780	0x68f28c…
10-13 05:32:40	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	585	2¢	$10	0x28f44c…
10-11 18:24:33	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0xba1c4c…
10-11 18:24:33	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	69	98¢	$67	0x97d1e5…
10-11 16:15:42	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	360	98¢	$352	0x780981…
10-11 16:15:42	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	79	98¢	$78	0x28d80f…
10-11 13:22:30	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	229	98¢	$225	0xc23cd0…
10-11 09:31:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	803	87¢	$700	0x980701…
10-09 22:18:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	274	66¢	$181	0x76e17c…
10-09 17:27:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0x5046a4…
10-09 00:11:41	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	266	28¢	$74	0x07137b…
10-08 15:38:29	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	266	4¢	$10	0x44d201…
10-07 16:12:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	242	100¢	$242	0xe09d5e…
10-07 06:26:33	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	242	41¢	$100	0x907175…
10-06 06:02:57	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	SELL	1,349	36¢	$486	0x0c17ee…
10-05 17:38:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1,349	96¢	$1,300	0x37d174…
10-05 10:31:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	1,372	100¢	$1,370	0x5284dd…
10-05 07:07:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1,022	68¢	$700	0x0cb82f…
10-04 16:14:29	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	350	57¢	$200	0x31be5c…
10-04 07:44:40	China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev	Andrey Rublev	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x25a608…
10-03 08:30:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	SELL	920	100¢	$919	0xcceef9…
10-02 05:18:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	920	72¢	$662	0x9dfe0a…
10-01 20:12:50	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	280	22¢	$62	0xbfb2e0…
10-01 20:11:54	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	SELL	729	84¢	$614	0xe2a706…
10-01 20:06:41	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	729	91¢	$660	0x86edf0…
10-01 19:45:11	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	SELL	663	100¢	$662	0x655a87…
10-01 19:39:14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	663	99¢	$656	0x42cb71…
10-01 19:38:41	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	316	2¢	$6	0x4f4478…
10-01 07:38:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	54¢	$150	0x7e773c…
10-01 07:36:30	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	316	32¢	$100	0x16d7dc…
09-30 22:49:47	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	25¢	$42	0x80b0cd…