Likely-Providence — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

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Unrealized P&L

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Hit rate

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Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

105 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$846 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

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0 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 06-26 23:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 33% -$21

Other

42% 21% -$86

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-26).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:05 UTC	4	$66	51	41	+10	Down	+$16	03-27 21:10
fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	5	$61	71	24	+46	No	-$46	03-27 21:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:15 UTC	5	$48	62	62	+0	Up	+$14	03-17 01:19
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	4	$47	38	38	+0	No	-$14	06-15 17:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:55 UTC	3	$43	59	18	+40	Down	-$7	03-17 17:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:40 UTC	2	$43	24	23	+0	Down	+$4	03-17 00:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:05 UTC	4	$40	36	35	+0	Up	$0	03-17 01:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:00 UTC	2	$37	20	19	+0	Up	+$1	03-17 17:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:50 UTC	3	$36	36	36	+0	Up	+$17	03-17 00:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:45 UTC	2	$34	20	20	+0	Down	+$6	03-17 01:51
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	4	$34	35	35	+0	Yes	+$24	06-15 17:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:45 UTC	2	$30	56	56	+0	Up	+$20	03-17 16:49
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	6	$28	26	26	+0	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	+$2	05-31 17:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:25 UTC	3	$25	54	0	+54	Up	-$11	03-17 01:26
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	2	$23	31	31	+0	Yes	+$7	05-30 17:30
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	2	$22	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	06-17 02:47
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	2	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	06-17 17:21
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	2	$19	13	13	+0	Yes	+$7	06-14 07:42
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	2	$15	26	0	+26	No	-$15	06-17 18:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:05 UTC	3	$15	48	0	+48	Down	-$15	03-17 17:08
fif eng ury 2026 03 27 draw	3	$15	30	30	+0	Yes	-$9	03-27 21:36
cricipl roy che 2026 04 05	2	$12	71	70	+2	Royal Challengers Bangalore	-$8	04-05 16:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:20 UTC	3	$11	68	68	+0	Down	-$9	03-17 01:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	1,111	0	+1,111	No	-$10	06-03 00:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:20 UTC	1	$10	31	0	+31	Down	-$10	03-27 21:24
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	2	$9	38	38	+0	No	-$1	06-17 17:21
fif eng ury 2026 03 27 ury	2	$9	42	42	+0	No	-$1	03-27 21:33
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	1	$8	50	0	+50	No	-$8	06-26 23:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:55 UTC	3	$8	428	0	+428	Up	-$8	03-17 00:59
Portugal leading at halftime?	2	$8	7	7	+0	Yes	$0	06-17 17:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 23:44:17	Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x5a0474…
06-26 23:43:31	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x62ee0a…
06-17 18:36:28	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4a3d51…
06-17 18:21:38	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x1debc6…
06-17 17:53:32	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x61af3a…
06-17 17:21:40	Portugal leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	7	54¢	$4	0x74345d…
06-17 17:21:29	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	SELL	38	11¢	$4	0x5bf61e…
06-17 17:21:16	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0x27a912…
06-17 16:19:40	Portugal leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xed38e0…
06-17 16:19:13	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xc08eff…
06-17 16:18:56	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x491bf6…
06-17 02:47:40	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x43484d…
06-17 01:48:10	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x945763…
06-15 17:55:52	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0xfc19a7…
06-15 17:55:12	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	18	91¢	$16	0x8c3da9…
06-15 17:53:30	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0x5cd0b3…
06-15 17:50:58	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	18	71¢	$13	0x628875…
06-15 16:54:39	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	18	79¢	$14	0xdd9341…
06-15 16:54:19	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xaba0ed…
06-15 16:53:48	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$15	0x345d04…
06-15 16:41:21	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x364554…
06-15 16:39:12	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0x774b33…
06-15 16:25:52	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0xfb6144…
06-14 07:42:37	Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xd64a37…
06-14 05:10:15	Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0xeb38a5…
06-14 05:09:46	Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x178b73…
06-14 05:03:16	Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x8f1a1a…
06-14 05:02:57	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x36985c…
06-03 00:03:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x696696…
05-31 17:02:29	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xdb7b84…
05-31 15:35:45	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xaeb92c…
05-31 14:26:27	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins the toss?	Gujarat Titans	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x15c766…
05-31 14:23:07	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	SELL	14	23¢	$3	0xa9fe29…
05-31 13:56:38	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x19ae14…
05-31 13:49:35	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x1e8dc9…
05-31 13:26:45	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins the toss?	Gujarat Titans	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x9acbfd…
05-31 13:26:18	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x89a8ef…
05-30 18:00:48	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$0	0x13a633…
05-30 17:57:11	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x2b288a…
05-30 17:30:53	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	31	48¢	$15	0x89eeee…
05-30 17:25:26	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	31	26¢	$8	0x45e98e…
05-30 16:11:56	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x44f243…
04-05 17:12:33	efa whu lee 2026 04 04 draw	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x07d830…
04-05 16:20:13	efa whu lee 2026 04 04 draw	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x0a147e…
04-05 16:18:55	cricipl roy che 2026 04 05	Chennai Super Kings	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0x2b2ac3…
04-05 15:53:11	cricipl roy che 2026 04 05	Chennai Super Kings	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xbe2148…
03-27 21:36:35	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	Yes	BUY	12	89¢	$10	0xa73e5f…
03-27 21:36:17	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 draw	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0xcf8088…
03-27 21:35:47	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	Yes	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x3299a3…
03-27 21:33:25	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	Yes	SELL	24	32¢	$8	0x5fcc4b…
03-27 21:33:11	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 ury	Yes	SELL	42	10¢	$4	0xd8596a…
03-27 21:24:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xe1619c…
03-27 21:18:17	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 draw	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xf665ff…
03-27 21:17:47	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 ury	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x5dd669…
03-27 21:15:59	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x6614d7…
03-27 21:13:09	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 draw	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xc527de…
03-27 21:10:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:05 UTC	Down	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0xb9e10d…
03-27 21:10:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x7dac9c…
03-27 21:09:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x902b75…
03-27 21:06:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xd7d850…
03-27 21:05:01	fif eng ury 2026 03 27 eng	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xc5bd41…
03-17 17:12:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x14dc1c…
03-17 17:08:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x56ee73…
03-17 17:08:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xea70f9…
03-17 17:05:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x420a93…
03-17 17:04:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:00 UTC	Up	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x4b5d9e…
03-17 17:01:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xfda3b0…
03-17 17:00:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:55 UTC	Down	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x843b73…
03-17 16:57:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:55 UTC	Down	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xb4d229…
03-17 16:57:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xdce2e6…
03-17 16:53:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0xa9f06a…
03-17 16:52:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xe98a97…
03-17 16:51:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xce6794…
03-17 16:49:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	56	44¢	$25	0xae7c34…
03-17 16:47:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x553567…
03-17 01:57:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:55 UTC	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xd76f26…
03-17 01:53:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	38	11¢	$4	0x2ef8e6…
03-17 01:51:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:45 UTC	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x079d1b…
03-17 01:45:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:45 UTC	Down	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xef3b86…
03-17 01:26:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:25 UTC	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xee5934…
03-17 01:25:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x121bf6…
03-17 01:25:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:25 UTC	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xc35fd5…
03-17 01:24:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:20 UTC	Up	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0x6a5cea…
03-17 01:22:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:20 UTC	Up	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0x5270b7…
03-17 01:21:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:20 UTC	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x767375…
03-17 01:19:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:15 UTC	Up	SELL	50	39¢	$19	0x889efc…
03-17 01:18:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:15 UTC	Down	SELL	12	95¢	$12	0x7d5996…
03-17 01:17:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x9213d6…
03-17 01:16:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x41e80b…
03-17 01:16:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xc36a6a…
03-17 01:09:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:05 UTC	Down	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x607a07…
03-17 01:08:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:05 UTC	Up	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x4da30e…
03-17 01:07:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:05 UTC	Up	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x5aa20b…
03-17 01:06:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:05 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x98d3f3…
03-17 01:04:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x094075…
03-17 01:03:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x798405…
03-17 00:59:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf7d4bd…
03-17 00:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:55 UTC	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x779493…
03-17 00:58:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:55 UTC	Down	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0x000635…
03-17 00:54:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 00:50 UTC	Up	SELL	36	74¢	$26	0x0f03b9…