Light-Lumberman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.5%

Resolved

Trades

160

lifetime

Volume

$2.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-31 03:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

83% 99% +$14

Politics

11% 91% -$21

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	05-29 15:34
will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 yzbu	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-21 14:11
will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	2	$49	25	25	+0	Yes	+$0	04-13 19:21
will mrbeasts next video get less than 69 million views on day 4	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	03-24 20:09
will mrbeasts next video get 84 million or more views on week 1	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	03-28 06:56
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?	2	$47	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-19 18:56
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?	2	$45	23	23	+0	No	+$1	05-12 12:48
ethereum above 2000 on june 16 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	06-15 10:42
Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	05-05 02:10
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$33	17	17	+0	No	+$0	05-31 00:59
bitcoin above 52k on july 4 2026	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	07-02 16:21
will mrbeasts next video get 80 million or more views on day 5	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	03-26 03:19
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	05-31 22:16
will russia capture viroliubivka by march 31	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	03-31 16:27
will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-10 12:32
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this week?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-05 18:54
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6?	2	$30	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	06-05 13:03
highest temperature in toronto on march 17 2026 neg 2c	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	03-17 20:19
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-27 12:48
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	03-31 15:24
will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 11	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	04-05 22:13
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	05-17 20:17
will mrbeasts next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$0	04-07 03:38
highest temperature in chicago on march 18 2026 36 37f	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$0	03-18 16:10
nyc mayor of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 20 39	2	$25	13	13	+0	Yes	+$0	03-27 15:17
highest temperature in chicago on march 16 2026 36forhigher	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-16 05:10
highest temperature in tokyo on march 17 2026 12c	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-16 12:39
will iran successfully target shipping on march 30 2026 469	1	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	-$24	03-30 01:30
ted cruz of tweets march 17 march 24 160 179	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	03-24 15:14
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	05-07 03:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 03:54:25	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x19d89f…
08-31 03:13:06	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $90 in August?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5d65b8…
07-28 05:33:46	will tsla reach 450 in july 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd10eff…
07-14 14:05:04	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xb4ca9f…
07-02 16:21:08	bitcoin above 52k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x5364b2…
06-25 13:19:41	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x31abae…
06-25 12:09:08	Will Trump be impeached by June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x35b293…
06-23 13:04:40	Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xedbe50…
06-15 10:42:37	ethereum above 2000 on june 16 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x641260…
06-15 00:06:19	Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x99d154…
06-08 00:04:42	Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xdfd675…
06-05 13:03:00	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x90032f…
06-05 09:06:46	Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x688b0b…
05-31 22:16:18	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x10270e…
05-31 11:14:41	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x6724de…
05-31 00:59:33	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xdf5698…
05-29 15:34:56	Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x83849d…
05-29 11:19:12	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x446afc…
05-27 12:48:58	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xea7234…
05-27 02:42:27	Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9f5c6a…
05-26 04:35:58	Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe42aa8…
05-23 22:44:02	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x2bca99…
05-19 18:56:03	Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x4be422…
05-18 06:17:23	Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0x1753d0…
05-17 20:17:33	Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x30a2c9…
05-17 14:26:52	Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x0e6ed6…
05-12 12:48:37	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x07d86d…
05-11 10:41:29	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xf8f709…
05-07 03:28:12	Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xad0e40…
05-05 18:54:28	Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x020adf…
05-05 02:10:42	Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x809038…
05-04 19:13:50	Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xb1c819…
05-03 15:33:24	Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x479221…
05-03 07:23:20	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Ukraine" this week?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x46a210…
05-02 23:20:34	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Ukraine" this week?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc0f767…
04-29 10:01:00	Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x37cb7b…
04-23 16:36:20	will mrbeasts video get between 81 and 82 million views on day 6	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x2272a9…
04-21 14:11:48	will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 yzbu	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xe10127…
04-18 00:02:36	will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 yzbu	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x2f89a8…
04-13 19:21:17	will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x37269b…
04-13 09:20:11	will the super mario galaxy movie 2nd weekend box office be less than 70m	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x9597f8…
04-10 12:32:55	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb9d070…
04-09 00:00:09	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xf3a886…
04-07 03:38:49	will mrbeasts next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x2101cd…
04-06 20:27:05	will mrbeasts next video get between 56 and 58 million views on day 3	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x8bcd1a…
04-05 22:13:57	will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 11	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x7dc87e…
04-05 00:13:07	will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 11	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0xd46eff…
04-03 06:59:53	nyc mayor of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 40 59	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xdabe72…
04-02 18:26:43	nyc mayor of tweets march 27 april 3 2026 40 59	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9eaf22…
03-31 16:27:19	will russia capture viroliubivka by march 31	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xa875f1…
03-31 15:24:47	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xdf2322…
03-30 12:20:44	will russia capture viroliubivka by march 31	No	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0xb0ce16…
03-30 01:30:42	will iran successfully target shipping on march 30 2026 469	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xe62f29…
03-30 00:08:06	deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x9cf7bd…
03-28 06:56:41	will mrbeasts next video get 84 million or more views on week 1	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf8f219…
03-27 20:07:09	will mrbeasts next video get 84 million or more views on week 1	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xc8b2b7…
03-27 15:17:41	nyc mayor of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 20 39	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x4fbfe8…
03-26 16:51:43	nyc mayor of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 20 39	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$12	0x1d7888…
03-26 03:19:17	will mrbeasts next video get 80 million or more views on day 5	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xf3238f…
03-25 18:00:19	will mrbeasts next video get 80 million or more views on day 5	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x9e0270…
03-24 20:09:09	will mrbeasts next video get less than 69 million views on day 4	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x4058cd…
03-24 15:43:07	will mrbeasts next video get less than 69 million views on day 4	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xc47dc3…
03-24 15:14:37	ted cruz of tweets march 17 march 24 160 179	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xa397cd…
03-24 14:11:23	will colby donaldson be voted off survivor season 50 this week 466	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x240ce9…
03-18 16:20:51	highest temperature in madrid on march 18 2026 19c	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xdb993c…
03-18 16:10:29	highest temperature in chicago on march 18 2026 36 37f	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x2eff86…
03-17 20:27:55	highest temperature in chicago on march 18 2026 36 37f	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x0f4ad4…
03-17 20:19:15	highest temperature in toronto on march 17 2026 neg 2c	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x3d29b7…
03-17 06:00:33	will the dinosaurs be the 2 global netflix show this week 475	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x363ad0…
03-17 04:04:15	highest temperature in toronto on march 17 2026 neg 2c	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x90b655…
03-16 12:39:59	highest temperature in tokyo on march 17 2026 12c	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x4828bb…
03-16 05:10:39	highest temperature in chicago on march 16 2026 36forhigher	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xc8ec30…
03-16 03:40:27	highest temperature in miami on march 16 2026 90 91f	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x1a07e7…
03-16 00:30:33	will the dinosaurs be the 2 global netflix show this week 475	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xb66168…
03-15 18:39:29	will scream 7 3rd weekend box office be greater than 9m	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x9d713f…
03-15 16:28:35	will scream 7 3rd weekend box office be between 8pt5m and 9m	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x8b086b…
03-15 12:26:41	will scream 7 3rd weekend box office be greater than 9m	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x5b92db…
03-11 12:39:05	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt4 or more in february	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x076035…
03-11 12:36:05	will annual inflation increase by 2pt6 in february 798 981 162 343	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xfae32b…
03-11 12:31:01	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt1 in february	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xde4ba1…
03-11 12:30:23	will annual inflation increase by 2pt3 in february 467 579 977 165	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6ec629…
03-10 19:02:17	will the dinosaurs be the 2 us netflix show this week	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc8a11d…
03-10 04:35:11	will mrbeasts next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 4	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xcf4913…
03-10 00:00:37	will annual inflation increase by 2pt6 in february 798 981 162 343	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7473b8…
03-10 00:00:21	will annual inflation increase by 2pt3 in february 467 579 977 165	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x2f1069…
03-10 00:00:19	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt4 or more in february	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe90105…
03-10 00:00:19	will monthly inflation increase by 0pt1 in february	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xcbec65…
03-10 00:00:19	will mrbeasts next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 4	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8411ab…
03-09 00:17:25	will the dinosaurs be the 2 us netflix show this week	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xe1ddc6…
03-09 00:00:11	will cd win the second most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb13420…
03-08 11:08:57	will the sbc initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf2ff2f…
03-08 06:11:29	will dtmf bad bunny be the 1 song on spotify this week 645	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x8cf65e…
03-07 00:00:33	will the sbc initiative be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xde7779…
03-07 00:00:33	will cd win the second most seats in the 2026 colombian senate election	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xb60306…
03-05 09:02:49	will dtmf bad bunny be the 1 song on spotify this week 645	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x1447cd…
03-03 10:26:51	highest temperature in ankara on march 3 2026 14c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6e8c98…
03-03 09:26:01	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 3 2026 30c	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa6b074…
03-02 12:03:43	highest temperature in ankara on march 3 2026 14c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7c8ff4…
03-02 12:03:41	highest temperature in sao paulo on march 3 2026 30c	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7106cf…
03-02 06:41:49	will cornyn flip paxton for texas rep senate primary winner by march 2	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x5bfba1…